Economy

This Paper was originally published on cgdev.org. Escalatory attacks on multilateral rules and institutions in this era of raw power politics have plunged international politics into uncharted territory. Traditional alliances have been fractured and new partnerships between unlikely bedfellows are emerging. No longer in transition, the post-World War II world order is in rupture. This paper examines international cooperation under these conditions and argues that a new "flexi-l ...

“A band-aid on a bullet hole!” That’s how Charlie McElligott, a cross-asset strategist at Nomura, described the maneuver carried out by United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on August 19. The U.S. Treasury Department announced that from September 9 to November 4, it would double the volume of long-term bond buybacks, going from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, with a focus on maturities of between 10 and 30 years. ...

Dans un contexte marqué par la superposition des crises sanitaires, géopolitiques, économiques, technologiques et climatiques, les jeunesses du Nord et du Sud évoluent dans des environnements distincts mais convergent progressivement vers un ensemble commun de préoccupations. Malgré des niveaux de développement et des trajectoires historiques différents, elles font face à des défis similaires : incertitudes croissantes sur l’avenir, difficultés d’insertion professionnelle, accès com ...

Selon la dernière enquête nationale disponible, 57 % des femmes marocaines âgées de 15 à 74 ans, soit environ 7,6 millions de personnes, ont déclaré avoir subi au moins un acte de violence au cours des douze mois précédant l'enquête (HCP, 2019). Cette prévalence s'accompagne d'un coût économique direct et indirect estimé, pour la même période, à 2,85 milliards de dirhams (HCP, 2019). Ces deux ordres de grandeur — humain et économique — trouvent un écho dans les indicateurs du marché ...

Predictions of American decline have become increasingly prevalent. The United States has run persistent trade deficits for decades, but its public debt now exceeds its annual economic output. Meanwhile, and new centers of industrial and technological power continue to emerge across Asia. Yet despite these developments, no country has so far replaced the United States as the main organizing power of the international economy. Conventional explanations explain this in terms of U.S. m ...

The next Secretary-General should begin with an act of institutional rebellion: refuse to become the Secretary-General ofeverything. Over three decades the office's political and administrative reach has spread across sustainable development, climate, health, migration, digital governance, financing, gender, food systems, and a still-growing list of global priorities. These issues are not unimportant; the trouble is that institutional ambition has simply outrun institutional capabil ...

Recent crises in the Middle East, particularly attacks targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, have highlighted the vulnerability of the main strategic corridors of global trade. Rather than fundamentally disrupting the organization of trade flows, these crises are accelerating an ongoing transformation driven by the search for more resilient connectivity chains, the diversification of trade routes, and the development of logistics ...

Les crises récentes au Moyen-Orient, notamment les attaques ciblant les navires commerciaux en mer Rouge et les tensions autour du détroit d'Ormuz, ont mis en évidence la vulnérabilité des principaux corridors stratégiques du commerce mondial. Plus qu'un bouleversement de l'organisation des échanges, elles accélèrent une transformation déjà engagée, fondée sur la recherche de chaînes de connectivité plus résilientes, la diversification des itinéraires commerciaux et le développement ...

La géographie mondiale des hydrocarbures n'est évidemment pas figée. De nouveaux producteurs de pétrole et/ou de gaz naturel apparaissent suite à des découvertes, le plus souvent réalisées par des compagnies pétrolières internationales. On pense notamment au Mozambique, qui produit et exporte du gaz naturel liquéfié (GNL) depuis la fin 2022, au Sénégal, qui est un producteur de pétrole offshore depuis la mi-2024, et au Sénégal et à la Mauritanie, qui sont devenus conjointement expor ...

Lorsqu’une crise éclate, elle donne lieu à l’actionnement des réflexes pour sa gestion et la limitation de ses effets. Commencent, alors, les analyses et les suppositions sur les dysfonctionnements, les manquements et les défaillances ayant entrainé ladite crise. Dans certains cas, la théorie du complot s’ingère et les hypothèses cherchent les auteurs ayant provoqué la crise, leurs desseins et leurs buts.Cependant, la théorie de gestion des crises nous apprend qu’une crise inte ...

This paper addresses the persistent challenge of resource dependence in the world's poorest countries, focusing on the ten poorest African nations where natural- resource rents average 14% of income. It argues that four decades of conventional policy advice, which treated resource dependence primarily as a revenue management problem, have failed to help these countries. While stabilization funds and permanent-income frameworks aim to smooth consumption, they do not answer the fundam ...

This paper was originaly published on Middle East Development Journal This article examines the impact of remittances on human capital formation, living conditions, and economic participation of women in North African countries. While prior research has explored remittances’ effects on women’s access to fundamental rights, it has not fully captured the social and economic transformations induced by these funds. Our findings indicate that remittances significantly enhance w ...

This Opinion was originally published in Project Syndicate and republished by The Edge Malaysia, DT Next, and The Japan Times. Data from a period in which both China and India pursued deliberate industrial policies show that neither country's development route is accessible to other countries. At best, their experience can alert policymakers to structural limitations and coordination problems that will require their own homegrown solutions.RABAT—What is the most reliable develo ...

This policy paper explores how China’s economic development model—rooted in pragmatism, long-term planning, and civilizational renewal—has become its most compelling soft power asset, particularly in the eyes of the Global South. While critically engaging with Joseph Nye’s original conception of soft power as a primarily cultural and normative force, the paper argues that China’s ability to transform itself from an impoverished postimperial state into the world’s largest trading nat ...

Ethiopia continues to struggle to lay the economic foundations of food security for all, more than 30 years after first adopting the East Asian Developmental State Model (EADS) under Zenawi (1911-2012), continued under Hailemariam Desalegn (2012-April 2018), and later shifting toward a neo-liberal, Washington consensus-oriented approach under Abiy Ahmed (2018-present). The achievements recorded under the EADS approach—particularly double-digit annual growth, substantial poverty ...

En un siècle, le cours de l’once d’or est passé de 20 dollars à 5 300 dollars au premier trimestre 2026. Cette étude, consacrée à l’analyse de cette envolée, comporte deux parties.La première privilégie une approche historique. Elle retrace tout d’abord le changement de statut du précieux métal jaune, monétisable jusqu’en 1971 puis démonétisé par la suite. Elle rappelle ensuite que cette évolution, loin d’être linéaire, est ponctuée de phases de forte hausse, de stagnation et d ...

The term “K-shaped recovery” was introduced to describe the economic recovery from the recession triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic. It refers to the uneven and divergent growth pattern between leading industries or sectors (the upper arm of the letter K—mainly the high-technology sector) and laggards, or the rest of the economy (the lower arm—the traditional industries). Since then the term has become popular in portraying divergent growth patterns within and between countries, esp ...

This Paper was originally published on cairn.infoL’insertion professionnelle des jeunes, et particulièrement des diplômés de l’enseignement supérieur, constitue un enjeu majeur pour le développement économique et la cohésion sociale de toute nation. Au Maroc, cette question revêt une acuité particulière et s’attache à un paradoxe persistant : malgré une démocratisation et une progression notable de l’accès à l’enseignement supérieur au cours des deux dernières décennies, le tau ...

Thanks to the AI investment boom, the U.S. economy has performed well at the macroeconomic level. However, it is on an unsustainable fiscal and debt path. Mr. Trump’s fiscal policy in his second term has aggravated this trajectory. In turn, Mr. Trump’s tariff-based trade policy has failed to address what he sees as U.S. economic problems associated with the trade balance. Besides explaining why this has been the case, and what its implications are for the U.S. economy and the r ...

This paper provides a structural assessment of India’s services-led development trajectory, and its integration into global value chains (GVCs) between 2012 and 2022. Applying an analytical framework that categorizes services into knowledge (KS), enabling (ES), and local (LS) sectors, the study utilizes sixteen OECD indicators to move beyond the narrative of India as a ‘services champion’ and reveal a more complex economic reality. The analysis identifies three central structur ...

This paper examines the evolution of China’s services sector between 2012 and 2022, analyzing the country’s structural transformation based on a novel three-tier taxonomy: knowledge services (KS), enabling services (ES), and local services (LS). Using sixteen quantitative indicators from OECD databases, the study evaluates China’s transition in comparison to the EU15 benchmark, highlighting three core challenges: manufacturing rebalancing, labor absorption, and global integration.Th ...

Available soon on livremoi. The 2026 edition of the Annual Report on the African Economy examines the issue of the valorization of Africa’s natural resources, particularly its mineral wealth. While the continent holds some of the world’s largest known reserves of a wide range of minerals and metals, the objective is not merely to catalogue these resources, but rather to explore the conditions under which natural resource endowments can be transformed into drivers of Africa’s in ...

For much of the post-war period, the Global South was framed as an object of history, defined by dependency, constrained by structural asymmetries, and confined to the margins of global decision-making. That narrative, once empirically grounded, is now no longer adequate. A profound yet uneven transformation is underway. The Global South is no longer only reacting; it is increasingly shaping rules, institutions, and narratives.This Policy Brief argues that the Global South is thus t ...

Ce Policy Paper a également été publiée en anglais et en espagnol par Le Grand Continent Le Maroc offre un exemple éclairant parmi les pays à revenu intermédiaire, dans un contexte marqué par une fragmentation croissante de l’environnement international, une croissance mondiale atone et un ralentissement de la convergence. Depuis 2022, sa trajectoire se distingue par une certaine robustesse, avec un rythme d’expansion supérieur à celui des autres économies de même catégorie. Dé ...

Este Policy Paper también ha sido publicado en inglés y francés por Le Grand Continent La economía marroquí constituye un caso ilustrativo entre las economías de renta media, en un contexto marcado por una creciente fragmentación del entorno internacional, un crecimiento mundial anémico y una desaceleración de la convergencia. Desde 2022, su trayectoria se caracteriza por una relativa solidez, con un crecimiento superior a la media de las economías de la misma categoría. Superi ...

This Policy Paper has also been published in French and Spanish by Le Grand Continent Morocco offers a compelling example of how a middle-income economy can navigate a more fragmented global environment, characterized by weak growth and slower convergence. Since 2022, economic activity has remained relatively strong, with growth exceeding that of many comparable economies. Non-agricultural growth has averaged 4.4% since 2022, around 1.3 percentage points above its historical av ...

Africa is facing a massive electricity deficit that is impacting its economic and social development, and its ability to catch up with the rest of the world. It is imperative that the continent increase its electricity production to connect the 600 million people who are currently without access and to improve the quality of service for the millions who are suffering from frequent blackouts and load-shedding. Economic development in the 21st century will crucially depend on the digi ...

À l'échelle mondiale, les politiques publiques de jeunesse sont confrontées à un double enjeu : répondre à des défis socio-économiques structurels; chômage, précarité, fractures territoriales, tout en intégrant une demande croissante de participation citoyenne effective. (OIT, 2023 ; Nations Unies, 2020) En Afrique, ce défi revêt une dimension singulière compte tenu du poids démographique de la jeunesse et des fragilités persistantes des démocraties locales. (BAD, 2020 ; Mo Ibrahim ...

Globally, public policies for youth face a twofold challenge: addressing structural socioeconomic challenges—such as unemployment, precariousness, and regional disparities—while accommodating a growing demand for effective civic participation. (ILO, 2023; United Nations, 2020) In Africa, this challenge takes on a unique dimension given the demographic weight of the youth population and the persistent fragility of local democracies. (AfDB, 2020; Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2023)Elections ...

The inventory is worrisomely low The US military has fired off more than 1000 Tomahawk cruise missiles, roughly ten times the number it currently buys each year. The Pentagon used more than 1200 Patriot interceptor missiles, "more than three million dollars a pop", and more than 1000 precision strike, ground based missiles, "leaving the inventories worrisomely low." US commanders were forced to ration interceptors by letting unguided or less destructive missiles hit empty or no ...

Au Maroc, la problématique des jeunes NEETs (Ni en emploi, ni en études, ni en formation) constitue une urgence nationale, alimentée par 300 000 abandons scolaires annuels. Face à ce défi, le modèle de l'École de la Deuxième chance nouvelle génération (E2C-NG) a démontré sa pertinence en affichant un taux d'insertion exceptionnel de 81 %.Cependant, ce succès institutionnel repose intégralement sur un tissu associatif local aujourd'hui fragilisé. L'analyse inédite des donné ...

In Morocco, the issue of young NEETs (Not in Employment, Education, or Training) is a national emergency, fueled by 300,000 students dropping out of school each year. In response to this challenge, the “New Generation Second Chance School” (E2C-NG) model has proven its effectiveness by achieving an exceptional employment rate of 81%.However, this institutional success rests entirely on a local network of organizations that is now under strain. A previously unpublished analysis of da ...

History devotes considerable attention to the rise and fall of great powers. Scholars have spent centuries analyzing why empires collapse, why nations decline, and why dominant states eventually lose their position. By comparison, relatively little attention has been devoted to a different question: what happens when a country succeeds beyond its own expectations? ...

Global imbalances are back—and this time the risks look different. The 2008 financial crisis showed how persistent current-account deficits and surpluses between major economies can fuel financial instability and trigger sudden, severe reversals of capital flows. After almost two decades, many thought that episode had been resolved. It had not. New imbalances have built up, with a familiar cast: China, Germany, Japan, and oil exporters running large surpluses, and the United States ...

The early March 2026 Pentagon briefings were tuned towards triumph and surrender - unconditional. The white flag of defeat was visible on the Iran horizon, and America's commander in chief needed only a few more weeks to declare "their military is gone. Wiped out". His secretary of war, Pete Hegseth, added to Trump's assessment his own, the Iranian navy was "decimated, destroyed and defeated", the naval fleet of the enemy rested on the bottom of the Persian Gulf. Iran's defense indu ...

This article draws in part on perspectives shared by members of the Rihla Initiative for Green Economic Growth, whose regional insights helped inform the sections on how the costs of the war are being felt across the Global South. The war on Iran and in the Gulf has made it impossible to treat the Strait of Hormuz as a regional issue. The disruption around the Strait has moved through the world economy in concrete ways, from higher fuel bills and pressure on food and fertilizer ...

This essay argues that the current debate about the future of the international monetary system is not really about Gulf currencies, oil pricing, or de-dollarization in the narrow technical sense. It is about something deeper and more important: whether institutional trust can survive when geopolitical certainty is eroding.The Gulf monarchies—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman—increasingly exist in a world where the United States no longer looks ...

The global energy system has entered a period of acute structural stress following the strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran in late February 2026, and the subsequent disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency, the resulting shock marks the most severe disruption to global energy markets since the 1970s oil crises, with systemic characteristics comparable to the combined effects of those crises and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine ...

Depuis le lancement de GPT-4 en mars 2023, un discours de plus en plus en vogue affirme que « si vous ne maîtrisez pas l'Intelligence artificielle (IA) vous serez dépassé ». On parle de prompt engineering comme s'il s'agissait d'une compétence ésotérique réservée à une élite technologique. Les réseaux sociaux professionnels regorgent de profils qui se présentent comme « experts en IA » après avoir suivi une formation de deux semaines. L'alarmisme fait vendre, et ...

This Opinion was originally published on dev-front.org, by Hafez Ghanem, Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South.Joe Studwell has spent most of his career working on Asia and brings an interesting fresh perspective on the economics of Africa. This makes the book worth reading even if one disagrees with some conclusions.   The book’s main argument is that Africa should follow the Asian model of first focusing on smallholder agriculture, then labor intensive manufact ...

In 2017, eight scientists from the Google research team published in the journal Advances in Neural Info Processing Systems the remarkable article “Attention is all you need,” which introduced a Transformer neural network architecture. The paper has been cited over 173,000 times and ranks among the top 100 most cited papers of the 21st century. It builds on the attention principle introduced in 2014 by Bahdanau, Cho and Turing Award winner Bengio, who proposed neural machine transla ...

The energy shock caused by the war between the United States and Israel and Iran has highlighted the need for Africa to refine more of its own crude oil. Africa is a net hydrocarbon exporter, but remains stuck in the old colonial economic model: it mostly exports raw materials and imports refined products. Africa exports about 2.6 billion barrels of crude oil every year, and imports about 1.4 billion barrels of refined products. This is a problem for two reasons. First, Africa ...

Le monde du travail est engagé dans un processus de mutation sans précédent. La quatrième révolution industrielle, portée par l’intelligence artificielle (IA) et la robotisation, a été le point de commencement d’une ère nouvelle où les repères économiques et sociaux se redéfinissent à une vitesse inédite. Ces technologies suscitent un engouement légitime et offrent des perspectives prometteuses, mais requièrent une vigilance accrue face aux incertitudes qui les entourent.Bien que, à ...

Driven by its mission to reflect on and analyze the major geopolitical, economic, and societal transformations shaping the contemporary world, and with a view to contributing to knowledge-sharing and disseminating the main outcomes of its research program, the Policy Center for the New South regularly publishes collective volumes addressing issues of particular importance to Morocco, Africa, and the broader Global/New South. In this spirit, the Center has recently released two volum ...

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This Paper was originally published on tandfonline.com This paper examines how reductions in transportation costs reshape regional economic and environmental outcomes in Morocco. We simulate a reduction in delivered (purchasers’) costs via a transport-margin efficiency improvement – implemented as a margin-saving technical change in the transport sector – within a province-level Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) framework. Simulating a 1% decline in transport costs, ...

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates that Africa loses as much as USD 60 billion each year in illicit financial flows (IFFs). Undoubtedly, the IFFs strip substantial amounts of resources from African countries, and the immediate impact is a reduction in national expenditure and investment. This translates into inadequate public services, including hospitals, schools, national security, and transport infrastructure. It also contributes t ...

This paper, the fourth in a research series on services-led growth in the Global South, examines Egypt’s potential for growth and economic transformation through the integration of services into Global Value Chains (GVCs). It employs a new taxonomy that classifies services into Knowledge Services (KS), Enabling Services (ES), and Local Services (LS) and applies OECD 2025 Trade in Value-Added (TiVA), Trade in Employment (TiM), and input-output databases to benchmark Egypt against Mor ...

La participation des femmes au marché du travail au Maroc demeure l'un des défis les plus structurels du développement économique et social du pays. Avec un taux d'activité féminin de seulement 19 % en 2023, contre 69 % pour les hommes (HCP, 2024), le Maroc présente l'un des écarts de genre les plus prononcés parmi les économies en développement (Banque mondiale, 2024). Ce Research Paper propose une analyse économétrique rigoureuse et multiniveaux des déterminants de cette participa ...

L’Organisation pour la coopération et le développement économiques (OCDE), forte de 38 membres, a longtemps fait figure d’Organisation regroupant les « démocraties industrielles développées ». Cette image n’est plus vraie, du fait de l’adhésion en son sein de pays, qualifiés jadis en développement, et que l’on considère souvent comme faisant partie du « Sud global ». C’est ainsi que l’ont intégrée : le Mexique (1994), qui lui a donné un Secrétaire général, Angel Gurria, la Corée du ...

This paper is the third in a series of country and comparative studies that together comprise a research program on services as drivers of economic growth and structural transformation in the Global South. The paper analyzes the pattern of Tunisia's services-led economic growth from 2012- 2022 using a specialized three-category framework: knowledge services (KS), enabling services (ES), and local services (LS). Using data from the OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA), Trade in Employmen ...

Decarbonization is reconfiguring global relative prices. As clean energy, natural capital, and location-specific assets become dominant industrial inputs, the relative cost of producing low-carbon goods is increasingly determined by geography. Two systematic distortions explain why the expected reallocation of investment toward renewable-rich economies remains incomplete. First, industrial policy interventions, including subsidies, trade barriers, and certification systems, disconne ...

The passage of the US Genius Act in July 2025 has spurred the growth of stablecoins, mostly dollar-based, helping to modernize and improve payment transactions. The market capitalization of stablecoins increased rapidly to $317 billion in April 2026 and is expected to grow to $3-4 trillion by 2030. While still modest in scale, stablecoins—if fully developed, especially in the face of potentially strong competition from tokenized bank deposits—could have multiface ...

Why only globally connected, knowledge-intensive services — not local services — can drive long-term development and productivity growth. This Commentary was originally published on stimson.org For decades, manufacturing was considered the indispensable engine of economic development, creating jobs, boosting productivity, and integrating countries into global markets. But automation, robotics, and intensifying global competition have made industrialization far harder for d ...

This Paper was originally published on mitvim.org.il This paper argues that the reconstruction of Gaza will depend not only on the amount of funding mobilized, but on how financing is structured, governed, and anchored within a broader politi`cal context. In a setting shaped by movement restrictions and weak institutions, financial design is not neutral but shapes priorities, distributes power, and determines what can be implemented on the ground. The paper examines the key cha ...

Closing Morocco's gender employment gap could increase GDP per capita by 40-50 percent; yet female labor force participation stands at just 19 percent—among the lowest in the world and still declining. This policy paper argues that investing in the care economy is not merely a social expenditure, but a productive economic strategy with measurable returns. Drawing on international evidence from Uruguay, Mexico, Colombia, and India, the brief demonstrates that well-designed care syste ...

This paper is the second in a series examining services-led development and global value chain (GVC) integration in the Global South. It applies a three-category analytical framework covering knowledge services (ICT and professional business services), enabling services (transport, logistics, and finance), and local services (retail, hospitality, health, and personal services), to OECD Trade in Value Added indicators. The paper thus  ...

The commercial and geopolitical interdependence between China and Latin America makes any U.S. claim to promote a "decoupling" between them impractical. Digital technologies and critical minerals will be in the crosshairs of the North American National Security Strategy  ...

Cette chronique a été initialement publiée sur le site lesechos.fr Les économies en développement font face à un double défi : créer des emplois à grande échelle tout en soutenant la productivité. Quels types de services permettent cette convergence ? Les économistes Hinh T. Dinh et Karim El Aynaoui répondent dans la chronique du « Cercle des économistes ».Les services peuvent-ils se substituer à l'industrie manufacturière comme moteur du développement ...

Climate policy is increasingly reshaping the conditions under which firms participate in international markets. As some jurisdictions introduce carbon border adjustments, lifecycle emissions standards, and supply-chain traceability requirements, market access is starting to be made conditional on verifiable characteristics of production processes, such as carbon intensity, embedded emissions, and input sourcing, rather than solely on product characteristics or prices. This paper exa ...

The call for private finance mobilization received an answer in 2024, with private capital accounting for 66% of total flows in climate finance, while still reaching a record level. This flow of private finance represents a structural shift that can both be considered as a significant achievement and an underexamined governance risk. This paper argues that the growth of private climate finance, while real and consequential, does not always directly serve climate objectives. Pri ...

This paper was published as a book chapter in “The Economic Potential of Islamic Countries, Part B: Sustainability, Governance, Energy and Digital Transformation,” released by Emerald Publishing. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed significant deficiencies within social protection systems worldwide, especially in Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries. This underscores the urgent need to fortify these social protection schemes to ensure resilience in the face of crises (Sa ...

This blog was originally published on cgdev.org We recently wrapped up the second edition of the Growth Summit, organized by our three organizations and hosted by the Policy Center for the New South. The event was filled with eclectic voices. To give you a sense of the discussions, we’ve tried to capture some of the key messages from the 12 sessions (with no direct attribution).Overall, the eclecticism of the debate points to an uncomfortable truth: there is today no shared pla ...

STRATEGIC EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Morocco has embarked with determination on a modernization trajectory driven by digital transition, green transition, and innovation. These dynamics have become strategic drivers of competitiveness, attractiveness, and the creation of high-value-added jobs. However, an analysis of recent microeconomic data reveals a troubling paradox: the most modernized companies, the engines of future growth, are facing the greatest recruitment difficulties.  ...

Résumé exécutif stratégiqueLe Maroc s’est engagé avec détermination dans une trajectoire de modernisation fondée sur la transition numérique, la transition verte et l’innovation. Ces dynamiques sont devenues des leviers stratégiques pour la compétitivité, l’attractivité et la création d’emplois à forte valeur ajoutée. Pourtant, l’analyse des données microéconomiques récentes révèle un paradoxe préoccupant : les entreprises les plus modernisées, moteurs de la croissance de demain, re ...

This report was originally published on the website of the Middle East Institute ( mei.edu) The following study discusses the role of Lebanon’s gold reserves in the establishment of a currency board and evaluates four policy options: a true currency board, constrained central bank reform, full dollarization, and a unified managed float. Gold reserves are relevant under all four. The conclusion is consistent across them: no monetary framework, however carefully designed and howe ...

Trade agreements, in earlier eras, were instruments of exchange. In the present one, they have become instruments of order. The EU–Mercosur agreement, after more than two decades of negotiation, reaches a decisive moment—not merely as a framework for tariff reduction, but as a mechanism through which competing visions of economic organization are projected and contested. ...

World trade was more resilient than expected during 2025. Its growth probably resulted from the way the rest of the world reacted to the U.S. tariffs. Other factors also had an impact, including moves by exporters to the U.S. in the first half of 2025 to get ahead of the tariffs, and the boom in global tech capital expenditures driven by investment in artificial intelligence (AI).The trade pattern observed in 2025 and early 2026 could point to a new architecture of world trade. Ther ...

We are now in the fifth week since the U.S. airstrike that killed top leaders of the Iranian regime, initiating a war involving the United States and Israel against the country. More than a month of mutual bombardments between Iran and Israel has ensued, extending to other Persian Gulf nations, U.S. military installations—and even Cyprus. From a global perspective, the impact has stemmed primarily from disruptions to regional production of goods and the blockade of the Strait of Hor ...

Les conflits armés ont toujours des coûts économiques exorbitants, sans parler des pertes humaines. Le coût de la guerre est difficilement chiffrable.  Il dépend de la durée de l'enlisement et des « à-côtés ».  En fait, les conséquences économiques, tout comme les causes des conflits armés sont toujours complexes à appréhender. Les risques liés aux conflits génèrent de nombreuses incertitudes économiques, directement perceptibles dans les contraintes budgétaires, ...

Le premier sommet des BRICS, tenu à l’initiative de la Russie en 2009, sera suivi de 16 autres, le dernier étant celui de Rio dont les travaux se sont déroulés les 6 et 7 juillet 2025. Jusqu’en 2022, un seul élargissement est intervenu, celui accueillant l’Afrique du Sud, transformant les BRIC en BRICS. À partir de 2023, en revanche, trois sommets, ceux de 2023, 2024 et 2025, vont se solder par la transformation des BRICS en BRICS+5, accueillant 5 nouveaux pays membres, en ...

The first BRICS summit, convened at Russia's initiative in 2009, would be followed by sixteen more, the most recent being the Rio summit held on July 6 and 7, 2025. Until 2022, only one enlargement had taken place — the admission of South Africa, which turned BRIC into BRICS. From 2023 onward, however, three consecutive summits — 2023, 2024 and 2025 — transformed BRICS into BRICS+5, admitting five new member countries and introducing a new “partner country” status that now groups ni ...

While acknowledging the centrality of security tensions and potential conflict in the Gulf, this essay intentionally sets aside a detailed treatment of military and hard-power dynamics, concentrating instead on the geoeconomic logics of capital, infrastructure, energy, and connectivity, through which Gulf states now articulate power in a fragmented world order.It examines the emergence of a new tripartite or three-pillar power configuration in the Gulf, arguing that Saudi Arabi ...

Historically, manufacturing has served as the primary pathway to economic development, offering strong scale economies, learning-by-doing effects, and the capacity to generate the foreign exchange necessary to import capital goods and technology. However, advances in robotization and artificial intelligence (AI) are fundamentally undermining manufacturing’s traditional role, making it increasingly skill- and capital-intensive while limiting its ability to absorb labor. Thi ...

At the Atlantic Dialogues in December 2025, I argued that a period was underway in which trade and security could no longer be analytically or practically separated. Assessments have solidified in recent months regarding the emergence of a geoeconomic world order. Geoeconomics was a gradual transition from a purely geopolitical focus on military force, to an emphasis on economics to gain competitive advantage. It is no longer a transitional phase, but an emerging structural componen ...

By mapping Iraq’s economic structure in detail, the Multiregional Social Accounting Matrix (MRSAM) sheds light on regional interdependencies and distributional dynamics, offering a critical foundation for evidence-based policy design. Key MessagesIraq is dependent on oil, but this dependence is felt unevenly. In 2013, oil accounted for nearly half of GDP, over 90% of exports, and almost all fiscal revenues, but less than 2% of jobs; benefits from oil were concentrated in Basra ...

The February 20 United States Supreme Court decision against President Donald Trump’s use of the U.S. International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to establish tariffs has led him to resort to other legal instruments. So-called U.S. reciprocal tariffs on countries set out in April 2025 were based on IEEPA, as were tariffs that allegedly punished countries for allowing fentanyl into the U.S. Trump tried to evade the constraints presented by other legal instruments that could f ...

This Paper was originally published on sciencedirect.com This paper assesses the national and regional impacts of the Marrakech–Fès highway project in Morocco using a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model combined with GIS-based road network data. The analysis captures how improved connectivity alters economic performance and emissions patterns across space and time. Results show that while overall economic gains are modest, the benefits are unevenly distributed—f ...

There is a story told by Václav Havel, the Czech dissident writer who later became president after the fall of communism. In his essay The Power of the Powerless, Havel describes a shopkeeper who, every morning, places a sign in his window reading: “Workers of the world, unite!” He does not believe in it. Nor do the people around him. Yet the sign remains. ...

On January 27, 2026, the Spanish government adopted a Royal Decree for the extraordinary regularization of persons in an irregular administrative situation or involved in an international protection procedure. The choice of a royal decree allows for the rapid implementation of the measure, without the need for parliamentary debate, in a political context that is highly polarized on migration issues.Regularization applies to people who can prove their presence on Spanish territory be ...

Le 27 janvier 2026, le gouvernement espagnol a adopté par décret royal une mesure de régularisation extraordinaire visant les personnes en situation administrative irrégulière ou engagées dans une procédure de protection internationale. Le choix du décret royal permet une mise en œuvre rapide de la mesure, sans passage par un débat parlementaire, dans un contexte politique fortement polarisé sur les questions migratoires.La régularisation concerne les personnes pouvant justifier d’u ...

Divergent regulatory regimes for data, driven by different motivations, ranging from privacy protection in the European Union to information control in China, could eventually produce distinctively different, and possibly contradictory, bodies of data. Artificial-intelligence models trained on those datasets could produce differing and possibly even conflicting outputs. To the extent that AI outputs start to shape human perception and to influence decisions, in governments and ...

The U.S.–China technological rivalry has become a central axis of global economic and geopolitical competition. While the United States continues to lead in frontier innovation—most notably in advanced semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI)—China has consolidated strengths in large-scale implementation, manufacturing capacity, and control over critical segments of global supply chains. These advantages are especially visible in clean energy technologies and in the processin ...

This article examines the quiet but profound implications of the erosion of U.S.-led hegemony for small and vulnerable states of the New South. While the post-1945 international order was never egalitarian, it offered predictability: power was organized through law, and sovereignty for weaker states rested less on justice than on procedural stability. Davos 2026 marked a turning point in the public acknowledgment of that system’s unraveling. Statements by leading Western figures rev ...

From the use of tariffs as a foreign policy instrument, to the weaponization of critical resources, and from targeted sanctions to attacks on critical infrastructure, economic security is at the forefront of international debates. The aggressive use of economic instruments for strategic purposes has become an explicit feature of international affairs, in a way not seen since the interwar period[1]. Beyond the weaponization of resources of all kinds, an increasing ‘monetization’ is u ...

The 2026 World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting took place in an environment of elevated economic uncertainty and structural risk repricing. According to the Global Risks Report (GRR) 2026, geoeconomic confrontation and economic downturn rank among the most severe near-term risks, while inflation-related risks and economic volatility have risen sharply in perceived severity compared with the previous edition. Notably, 50% of respondents to the Global Risks Perception Survey ...

Le Mali, le Burkina Faso et le Niger, réunis au sein de l’Alliance des États du Sahel (AES), affirment l’ambition de bâtir une souveraineté nationale qui leur permettrait de s’émanciper de la domination et des influences extérieures et de se doter d’une liberté d’action dans les choix de développement politique et économique. Cependant, cette ambition se heurte à de nombreuses contraintes économiques et sécuritaires.La souveraineté ne peut se construire sans une base économique soli ...

This paper revisits Big Push industrialization theory in the context of open economies deeply integrated into global value chains (GVCs). While classical Big Push models emphasize demand complementarities and coordination failures in largely closed economies, many middle-income countries now industrialize through foreign-owned, import-intensive production networks. We develop an extended Big Push framework that incorporates GVC integration and import leakage, and show how these feat ...

Introduction: COP30 as a Test of Reality, Not AmbitionCOP30 in Belém was never going to be a breakthrough. In a world marked by fiscal exhaustion, geopolitical rivalry, and eroding trust in multilateralism, expecting transformational climate cooperation bordered on denial. The choice of the Amazon as host carried symbolic weight, but symbolism does not override power, interests, or institutional capacity.The outcome of COP30 confirms a deeper truth: the global climate regime has ent ...

The post-1945 international order, an architecture born of war-weariness and colonial twilight, is now a majestic but empty shell. Its foundational promise—a universal system of rules administered impartially—has been hollowed out by decades of selective enforcement, instrumentalized law, and a chasm between the rhetorical ideals of its custodians and their geopolitical practice. This is not a temporary dysfunction, but a systemic failure of legitimacy. From the invasion of Iraq und ...

In response to developing countries’ dissatisfaction with the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) of $300 billion, which was decided at the Twenty-Ninth Conference Of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, in 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan, the COP29 and COP30 presidencies promised to develop a roadmap to achieve $1.3 trillion in external climate finance that developing countries need, and to present it at COP30 in Belém, Brazil[1]. The two pre ...

This policy brief examines what the 2025–2026 period reveals about the future of global energy risk and the energy transition. After the shocks of 2021–2023, 2025 brought broad price easing: oil and coal prices declined as supply growth outpaced demand, and the World Bank projects further declines in the global energy price index in 2026, offering short-term relief for energy-importing economies. The brief argues, however, that the macroeconomic relevance of energy entering 202 ...

This policy brief was originally published on : euromesco.net This paper examines the nexus between governance structures, digital transformation, sustainability, and port service efficiency through an international comparative lens, with a specific focus on the Tanger Med–Algeciras corridor in the strait of Gibraltar. Using global best practices—from Singapore to Busan and Kaohsiung—it explores how public-private coordination, digital innovation, and green transition policies ...

La création de l’Alliance des États du Sahel (AES) symbolise une rupture politique et géostratégique majeure, appuyée sur un discours souverainiste et anti-occidental. Deux ans après, Mali, Burkina Faso et Niger peinent à assurer leur intégrité territoriale, à stabiliser leur sécurité intérieure et à bâtir une gouvernance solide. L’intégrité territoriale est un problème commun aux trois États, car dans ces pays, la cohésion de l’État et le contrôle du territoire sont directement men ...

This Paper was originally published on sciencedirect.com This study provides an original and significant contribution to evaluating educational service quality in Morocco by leveraging, for the first time, microdata from the Service Delivery Indicators (SDI) survey. The survey covers a nationally representative sample of 300 public and private primary schools across rural and urban areas. The use of SDI data represents a major methodological advancement, shifting away from perc ...

Ce Policy Paper analyse les enjeux politiques, économiques et opérationnels du Fonds pour les pertes et dommages, créé pour répondre aux impacts climatiques irréversibles subis par les pays les plus vulnérables. Il clarifie d’abord la notion de pertes et dommages, qui mêle effets économiques et non économiques, et souligne les défis d’attribution liés à la superposition entre chocs climatiques et fragilités structurelles. L’analyse met ensuite en lumière les tensions d’économie poli ...

This paper presents the theoretical specification and current developments of a Spatial (Interprovincial) Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model for Morocco. The model is formulated as a Johansen-type CGE system, solved in linearized form, and is designed to analyze the regional and national impacts of policy shocks within an integrated interregional economic framework. The Moroccan economy is disaggregated into 72 provinces, 20 production sectors, multiple institutional agents ...

The U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean—the most significant since the Cuban Missile Crisis—comes at a moment when a new world order is taking shape, its contours still unclear, and in which the U.S. seeks to be more assertive in the Western Hemisphere. This disposition toward South America and the Caribbean was underscored by the recent publication of the new U.S. National Security Strategy, in which the Monroe Doctrine is explicitly invoked. This Policy Brief situates the devel ...

In 2025, the global landscape became increasingly fragmented and uncertain. Great power competition intensified, regional conflicts became protracted and exacerbated, while economic nationalism reshaped the rules of trade and development. The mechanisms for conflict resolution and cooperation that have long provided a foundation for international cooperation are now under strain due to polarization and mistrust. Even longstanding alliances, bilateral and collective security architec ...

“Uberization,” a term derived from the American company Uber in the early 2010s, initially refers to an economic model based on directly matching supply and demand through digital platforms. Rapidly popularized, the concept has expanded with Airbnb in accommodation, and then to a wide range of other sectors: food delivery, home services, e-commerce, and even traditionally regulated or corporatist professions. This neologism thus reflects a transformation of economic and social relat ...

L’« uberisation », terme né du nom de l’entreprise américaine Uber au début des années 2010, désigne initialement un modèle économique fondé sur la mise en relation directe entre offre et demande via des plateformes numériques. Rapidement popularisé, le concept s’est élargi, avec Airbnb dans l’hébergement, puis à une multitude d’autres secteurs : livraison de repas, services à domicile, commerce en ligne, voire des métiers traditionnellement régulés ou corporatistes. Ce néologisme t ...

 Global GDP growth has proven resilient in 2025, despite the shocks caused by the trade policies implemented by United States President Donald Trump in the first year after his return to office. The gloomy projections offered by multilateral and private institutions in the first quarter of 2025 have given way to revised levels mostly in the 2.5% to 3% range for the year. ...

This paper assesses the economic and environmental implications of Morocco’s strategic transition from internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) manufacturing to electric vehicle (EV) production, with a particular focus on the regional impacts of localizing high-value battery manufacturing. Using an interregional input-output model, extended with environmental satellite accounts, the study simulates a structural shock related to the wholesale substitution of ICEV-specific inputs wit ...

The adoption of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2803 on November 17, 2025, endorsing the “Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict,” is a step in the right direction, but it must be accompanied by the implementation of a Gaza development and post-conflict reconstruction program. Paragraph 6 of Resolution 2803 “calls upon the World Bank and other financial institutions to facilitate and provide financial resources to support the reconstruction and development of Ga ...

This Policy Paper analyses the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) through the critical lens of technological colonialism. It argues that the fusion of physical, digital, and biological technologies is not merely a technical phenomenon but a civilizational shift reshaping the foundations of global power. The article traces a historical continuum from previous industrial revolutions, demonstrating how patterns of inequality and extraction persist, now transposed into the digital realm ...

This report addresses the business environment in Brazil as one of the determinants responsible for the weak evolution of productivity in recent decades. After addressing this productivity performance, we define what constitutes the business environment, using as a reference the three ways in which the World Bank has been addressing the subject.Next, we highlight how the business environment affects productivity in a country. Finally, we review some recent reforms in the country's b ...

La modélisation classique de la croissance repose sur des outils – notamment la fonction de production agrégée et la comptabilité de la croissance – dont les incohérences logiques et les ambiguïtés épistémologiques sont connues depuis la Controverse de Cambridge et les travaux d’Anwar Shaikh. Pourtant, ces failles continuent d’alimenter des raisonnements fallacieux dans le débat économique et les discours institutionnels. Cet article montre que la nature tautologique de ces outils n ...

The meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, was more than an exercise in diplomacy. It was an emblematic performance of a world in transformation. Behind the formalities, the cameras, and the studied smiles lay an unspoken recognition: the world is no longer unipolar. The era of American supremacy, sustained for decades through its economic reach, military presence, and ideological projection, is giving way to a more diffuse, multipolar reality. ...

Morocco has emerged as one of Africa's success stories, achieving significant progress in economic transformation and the green transition over the past 25 years. Continuing and deepening this transformation is essential to reach the country’s goal of becoming a high-income economy in the coming decades. Significant challenges include managing the risk of the middle-income trap, addressing demographic pressures, promoting inclusive growth, ensuring environmental sustainability, and ...

Official Development Assistance (ODA) to developing countries has fallen in recent years to well below the UN target of 0.7% of developed countries’ gross national income. Global remittances have become the biggest inflow to poor countries, greater than ODA or foreign direct investment which has also declined. Against the backdrop of geopolitical tension between major powers, other countries including developing ones and development institutions have to do their parts in mobilizing ...

Almost a year after President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the United States displays little of the isolationism many of the country’s international partners anticipated, and many of Trump’s supporters desired. From economic sanctions to military intervention, Trump is proving to be something of a foreign policy president, although with distinctly unilateral instincts. This approach is particularly evident in Washington’s current approach to the ‘South’, including Latin ...

Now that a cease-fire is in place, it is time to consider Gaza’s reconstruction. This will be the fifth such effort in less than twenty years. Lessons from the previous four indicate that rebuilding houses, bridges, and roads is relatively straightforward. Far more challenging is building a thriving Gazan economy and society—one where young people live with dignity, have jobs, feel heard and included in their communities, and are hopeful about their future. Achieving this requires n ...

This paper analyzes the impact of the BRICS+ Summit of July 2025 on the evolution of the bloc, as well as on the relationship between the bloc and the U.S. under President Trump. It also tackles the aftermath of the summit and in particular the impact it had in the souring of Brazil-U.S. relations. Before the paper analyzes the impact of BRICS+ on Morocco, it goes over the consequences of the events that resulted from the summit on the Brazilian political sphere.  ...

On 1 October, China marked the 76th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Few nations in modern history have experienced such a remarkable transformation in so short a time. In just over seven decades, China has ascended from poverty and fragmentation to become a technological, economic, and diplomatic powerhouse of global significance. This trajectory—driven by strategic planning, institutional stability, and a steadfast belief in the state as a catalyst for develop ...

The publication of the latest (74th) edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy (SRWE, 2025) is a good opportunity to take stock of some major trends in the world of energy. In this note, we focus on the African continent. All figures below are taken from this document and refer to the year 2024, unless otherwise indicated.SRWE figures relate to commercially-traded energies, which include fossil fuels, hydroelectricity, nuclear power and modern renewable energies other than h ...

This blog was originaly published on orfonline.org. The maritime cities of the 21st century are not merely legacies of the industrial age. Rather, they are becoming platforms of global connectivity and engines of economic transformation. As global trade shifts toward digital platforms and multimodal logistics, the traditional harbour is transforming into a 'Blue City' - a modern coastal centre where trade finance, service industries, and skilled workers are considered as k ...

Depuis que l’économie a été reconnue par les Nobel, en1969, c’est à cette discipline qu’il revient de clore les cérémonies annuelles d’attribution des Prix aux lauréats. Pour cette année 2025, c’est le 13 octobre que  l’Américano-Israélien, Joel Mokyr, le Français, Philippe   Aghion, et le Canadien, Peter Howitt, ont été consacrés Prix Nobel de l’Économie. ...

Conventional wisdom holds that the United States has undergone massive deindustrialization in recent decades, with the country's manufacturing sector supposedly withering as it lost ground to China. This narrative has fueled debates about industrial policy, economic nationalism, and the reshoring of manufacturing production. But what if this story is only partially true? What if, instead of disappearing, American industry simply changed its address?  ...

Africa's development depends on the mobilization of catalytic levers capable of accelerating growth momentum, with wider benefits for the African people. The digital, energy and demographic transitions are all major challenges, but at the same time they present the continent with new opportunities for transformation. In this context, Atlantic Africa appears to be a strategic and promising area, thanks to the richness and diversity of its natural resources, its geographical position ...

En dépit des progrès sociaux, le Maroc reste confronté à une série de défis. Le chômage persiste à un niveau inacceptable, l’adéquation entre la formation et l’emploi est insatisfaisante, l’accès aux soins est contrarié par maintes contraintes, les disparités territoriales demeurent flagrantes. Pourtant, que de réformes, que de programmes sociaux sont financés depuis des décennies pour couvrir les déficits accumulés par le passé. Beaucoup de ces secteurs névralgiques pour le bi ...

This policy paper examines digital colonialism as a defining structural challenge of the twenty-first century and argues for the urgent pursuit of digital sovereignty in the Global South. While digitalization holds immense potential to foster inclusion and bridge development gaps, current dynamics reproduce historical patterns of dependency: data is extracted from Southern populations, routed through infrastructures owned by Northern corporations, processed by algorithms trained on ...

Global economic growth has been more resilient than expected, as the artificial intelligence-led growth seems to be compensating for the negative impacts of trade conflicts. Overstretched asset values and slowing jobs growth may be signaling that the balanced crossing of those two paths will be challenged. ...

Ce livre n’est pas un énième essai sur les Fake news. Il refuse les raccourcis moralisants, les solutions toutes faites ou les anathèmes technophobes. Ce que propose ici l’auteur, c’est une cartographie rigoureuse et plurielle d’un désordre informationnel devenu structurel — non pas un simple accident de parcours numérique, mais un révélateur des tensions démocratiques, des fractures institutionnelles et sociétales ainsi que des reconfigurations épistémiques de notre épo ...

Morocco’s strong macroeconomic performance over the past two decades—anchored in infrastructure modernization, industrial diversification, and renewable energy leadership—has positioned it as a success story in the Global South. Yet these achievements mask persistent regional disparities that undermine inclusive development. Coastal regions such as Casablanca-Settat and Tangier-Tétouan-Al Hoceima dominate economic activity, while hinterland and southern provinces face structural dis ...

Amidst intense geopolitical competition, efforts to develop tokenized monetary units—tradable on programmable platforms such as blockchains—have added a new dimension to the debate about the role of a global payment and reserve currency. Tokenized monetary units are expected to greatly improve the efficiency of payment transactions in terms of their speed and cost, especially cross-border transactions. They could also meet emerging demand for technologically enabled features such as ...

Le constat est unanime et est constamment souligné : le modèle de développement en vigueur au Maroc a atteint ses limites. La Vision Royale, refusant « un Maroc à deux vitesses », vient formaliser au plus haut niveau cette préoccupation systémique, documentée par une décennie de rapports officiels. La  Vision de Sa Majesté le Roi Mohammed VI est un hymne à une dynamique de croissance dont les retombées doivent être plus équitablement réparties et à un développement te ...

Le développement de l’Afrique repose sur la mobilisation de leviers catalyseurs capables d’accélérer la dynamique de croissance avec des retombées élargies au bénéfice des populations africaines. Les transitions numérique, énergétique et démographique constituent autant de défis majeurs, mais elles présentent parallèlement de nouvelles opportunités de transformation pour le continent. Dans ce contexte, l’Afrique atlantique apparaît comme un espace stratégique et prometteur, grâce à ...

Les questions des inégalités sociales et des inégalités territoriales sont profondément liées.  Les politiques publiques ne peuvent réduire l’une sans s’attaquer à l’autre.  Le phénomène des inégalités peut s’accentuer avec la fragilité de la situation socio-économique de certains territoires d’autant que le développement territorial n’est pas spontanément équitable. La réduction de ces inégalités, un des enjeux majeurs des politiques publiques, oblige à con ...

This Paper was originally published on springer.com This paper provides an in-depth analysis of socio-economic convergence across communes in Morocco, focusing on monetary poverty and educational inequalities. This research investigates the impact of the well-known territorial and inclusive development policies of the National Initiative for Human Development on the catch-up process. We explore the data from the last two general population and housing censuses (2004 and 20 ...

The Atlantic Initiative, announced by King Mohammed VI in November 2023 to provide landlocked Sahelian countries with access to the Atlantic Ocean via Moroccan territory, promises to profoundly reshape the bilateral relationship between Rabat and Nouakchott. This research paper examines how this unprecedented project creates new strategic opportunities while raising shared challenges for Morocco and Mauritania. Diplomatically, the rapprochement around the Atlantic Initiative unfolds ...

Ce travail apporte un éclairage critique sur l'alignement des dispositifs publics d'orientation des étudiants marocains à l'étranger avec les ambitions de développement du pays. Il interroge la capacité de ces mécanismes à transformer la mobilité étudiante d'une potentielle "fuite des cerveaux" en un véritable "gain de cerveaux". S'appuyant sur une étude de cas qualitative, nous avons mené une analyse de contenu systématique (cartographie) de 204 programmes promus par le ministère d ...

This policy brief analyzes the first 100 days in office of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, which have been marked by an assertive foreign policy, ambitious security reforms, and a shift toward economic pragmatism. Merz has sought to reestablish Germany as a ‘leading middle power’, emphasizing closer European coordination, renewed transatlantic engagement, and unwavering support for Ukraine. However, his approach to the Gaza conflict, characterized by alignment with U.S. positions and rel ...

Estimates based on last year’s U.S. imports, by Maia G. Crook (from JPMorgan) indicate that the average effective U.S. tariff rate is currently 16%, and is expected to rise to 20% by the end of 2025. This represents an increase from 13% mid-year and 2.3% in 2024 (Figure 1). Effective tariff rates are a measure of the degree of protection a tariff structure offers to the value added provided by each sector to a country’s final product, taking into account both the tax on final g ...

This paper argues that the Middle East has become the crucible of twenty-first-century imperial politics, exposing the collapse of legal universality and the resurgence of coercive empire. Through the archetypes of Hammurabi and Nebuchadnezzar, it analyzes how states invoke law rhetorically while practicing domination through siege, spectacle, and exclusion.The United States, China, Türkiye, Israel, Iran, the European Union, and the Gulf monarchies all oscillate between Hammurabian ...

The Africa Economic Symposium (AES) has firmly established itself as one of the flagship annual events of the Policy Center for the New South, alongside the Atlantic Dialogues and the African Peace and Security Annual Conference (APSACO). Now in its third edition, AES continues to provide a unique platform for economists, policymakers, and academics from across the continent and beyond to exchange perspectives on the pressing macroeconomic and structural challenges facing Africa. It ...

This Opinion was originally published in Project Syndicate However politically convenient narratives about the United States "abandoning" manufacturing may be, the reality is more complex and less gloomy than many assume. In fact, US manufacturing has not disappeared, but it did internationalize as American companies pursued higher-value opportunities at home. ...

L’Initiative Atlantique, annoncée par le Roi Mohammed VI en novembre 2023, visant à offrir aux pays sahéliens enclavés un accès à l’océan Atlantique via le territoire marocain, promet de redessiner en profondeur la relation bilatérale entre Rabat et Nouakchott. Cet article examine comment ce projet inédit crée de nouvelles opportunités stratégiques tout en soulevant des défis partagés pour le Maroc et la Mauritanie. Sur le plan diplomatique, le rapprochement autour de l’Initiative A ...

This Paper was originally published on tandfonline.com The gender gap in education remains a concern for Moroccan policymakers and researchers, yet it is rarely measured quantitatively. This study examines differences in reading and mathematics performance between girls and boys, both at the national level and by place of residence, using PIRLS (2016, 2021) and TIMSS (2015, 2019) data covering 21,129 students. The Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method is applied to distingui ...

La parution de la dernière édition (la 74ème) de la Statistical Review of World Energy (SRWE, 2025) est une bonne occasion de faire le point sur certaines grandes tendances du monde de l’énergie. Dans cette note, nous nous centrerons sur le continent africain. Tous les chiffres ci-dessous sont extraits de ce document et portent sur l’année 2024, sauf indication contraire. Les chiffres de la SRWE portent sur les énergies qui font l’objet d’échanges commerciaux, ce qui inclut les éner ...

The author of this opinion, Gabriela Keseberg Dávalos, is a 2013 alumna of the Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Program.On August 17, 2025, Bolivians did what once seemed unthinkable: they voted the Movement for Socialism (MAS) out of power, after almost two decades of dominance. For a country where last-minute surprises are the political norm, this outcome feels extraordinary. But the verdict is clear: MAS, the party that defined Bolivia’s politics for an entire generation, ...

This paper develops a continuous-time optimal control model to analyze the economic effects of the U.S. administration’s newly imposed “reciprocal tariffs,” which are determined by bilateral trade deficits. The model focuses on a small, open developing economy integrated into global value chains and facing limited policy space. We demonstrate how reciprocal tariffs, endogenously linked to the trade balance, affect production, consumption, capital accumulation, and overall welfare. W ...

History offers ample instances in which the veneer of fairness in international relations has worn away, revealing with unsentimental clarity the crude mechanics of power. The contemporary global trade architecture, promoted for decades by the United States as a virtuous system of open markets, a rules-based order, and reciprocal gains, is merely the latest in a long lineage of such illusions. ...

The international monetary system has been dominated by the U.S. dollar since the Second World War. The hegemony of the greenback cut across the end of the dollar exchange standard established by the Bretton Woods Agreement, and came out from the global financial crisis—and the euro crisis—even stronger than before. The euro area and China are taking steps to strengthen the international role of their currencies, but surmounting the inner strength of the dollar-based monetary system ...

The multilateral, rule-based trading system underpinned by the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been undermined by the unilateral imposition of U.S. tariffs. Crucially, the foundational principle of non-discrimination among WTO members has been abandoned. While many countries have attempted to negotiate with the U.S. to resolve tariff disputes, they have simultaneously sought to deepen trade ties with each other through plurilateral and regi ...

This Paper was originally published on springer.comBrazil went from a quite impressive economic performance during much of the twentieth century to a period of mediocre growth from 1980 onwards. This shift has positioned the country as a textbook case of the “middle-income trap”. This paper aims to demonstrate how certain transformations in the international economy since the 1980s—notably the globalization of firms and industries—combined with a set of domestic challenges, disrupte ...

China's ascent to the position of the world's most prominent energy consumer has altered global energy markets and fundamentally reshaped the geopolitics of energy security. As China navigates the complexities of sustaining its economic momentum, ensuring access to reliable, affordable, and diversified energy sources has become an existential imperative, intricately woven into its foreign policy strategy. In parallel, Africa's immense wealth of both conventional and renewable resour ...

This paper was originally published on tandfonline.comYouth’s life paths have become increasingly challenging, especially for those classified as ‘Not in Education, Employment, or Training’ (NEET), who comprise 31.2% of North Africa’s youth population. This paper contributes to the growing discourse on the NEET phenomenon by exploring its structural and psychosocial dimensions in North Africa, with a specific focus on gender. Using a rich micro-level dataset of 7,815 individuals age ...

This paper was originally published on tandfonline.comThis study investigates the long-term impact of hosting the FIFA World Cup on unemployment using panel data of 10 countries from 1983 to 2022. The empirical analysis used two estimation techniques namely the Robust Weighted Least Squares (RWLS) and Estimated Generalized Least Squares (EGLS) with fixed and random effects. Our findings reveal that hosting the FIFA World Cup can reduce long-term unemployment by 2.86% to 3.60% over f ...

An Executive Order issued on July 30 by President Donald Trump hiked United States tariffs on imports from Brazil by 40%, in addition to the 10% established on April 2—the so-called ‘Liberation Day’ when Trump set out ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on countries around the world.The decree came with a long list of exemptions for Brazilian exports. For a number of product lines, the 10% April 2 tariff will continue to apply. These include air transport equipment, orange juice, furniture, fuel, ...

This paper was originally published on The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) In the face of Africa’s development challenges and the mismatch between long-term needs and short-term pressures, ring-fencing development expenditures offers a viable solution to secure sustainable financing for growth. ...

This Paper was originally published on ilo.org A guide by the Mainstreaming Employment into Trade and Investment in the Southern Mediterranean (METI) Programme to advise policymakers on how to develop and implement trade, investment and employment.The PRG is a strategic framework designed to align trade and investment policies with employment goals in the Southern Mediterranean. The guide promotes practical solutions and supports policies that foster economic growth, empow ...

This article assesses the economic performance of the original BRICS economies, relative to the growth and currency appreciation projections presented in the papers that introduced the acronym, prior to the grouping becoming a diplomatic, political, and economic reality. It also discusses the BRICS agenda in the current challenging geopolitical context, in which economic fragmentation tends to raise costs for the global economy and presents considerable obstacles for emerging and de ...

This Blog was originally published on t20southafrica.org The G20 should address reform challenges during South Africa's presidency, as ongoing geopolitical tensions obstruct global cooperation and complicate efforts to revamp the international financial architecture. ...

The BRICS+ group of countries met in Rio de Janeiro over the weekend of 6-7 July. The original group – Brazil, Russia, India, China and, soon after, South Africa – emerged as the materialization of a work of fiction. Jim O’Neill, then chief economist at Goldman Sachs, produced a report in 2001 drawing attention to the rise of these countries as emerging regional powers in global economic growth. ...

Available soon on livremoi. The 2025 edition of the African Economic Report continues in the spirit of previous versions. It presents a broad overview of the continent’s economic evolution and offers insights into Africa’s relationship with the rest of the world. In other words, it explores how Africa navigates the effects of global fragmentation within its regional spaces while pursuing its ambition of continental integration. ...

Developing countries have few options to deal with the ongoing tariff war amid unpredictable shifts in global supply chains. However, regional economic integration offers a strategic path of development in these uncertain and challenging times. Helped by geographical proximity and cultural familiarity, countries in a region can benefit greatly from promoting trade with one another, reaping the benefits of comparative advantages and economies of scale—if they are able to establish a ...

La stabilité apparente des taux directeurs de la BCEAO (Banque centrale des États de l'Afrique de l'Ouest) masque une réalité bien plus préoccupante : un resserrement monétaire non déclaré dans la zone UEMOA (Union économique et monétaire ouest-africaine) et une rareté accrue de la liquidité qui frappe tout le système. Nous proposons une analyse en profondeur des mécanismes de cette crise bancaire latente, ses manifestations concrètes sur le tissu économique et ses implications pour ...

Cet article a été publié initialement sur lopinion.fr"Afrique/Europe : il faut repolitiser pour mieux coopérer", selon Karim el Aynaoui, président Exécutif Policy Center for the New South ...

Dans un contexte devenu plus incertain et plus compliqué à la suite des décisions de la nouvelle administration américaine, les impératifs de la lutte contre le changement climatique et de la transition énergétique et écologique demeurent.Les banques centrales peuvent et doivent apporter leur contribution à cette transition, en « verdissant », dans une proportion à définir, la politique monétaire qu’elles mènent. Concrètement, cela veut dire compléter la palette des object ...

This Paper was originally published on ettg.eu KEY MESSAGES1. Aligning climate and energy priorities for mutual benefit - North Africa’s solar and wind potential could help meet the EU’s decarbonisation and energy security goals. A longterm, equitable partnership integrating green industrialisation, energy market integration and climate resilience can deliver shared economic, environmental and geopolitical gains. 2. Transforming energy partnerships for a just transition - ...

This Blog was originally published on ettg.eu Europe and North Africa are intensifying cooperation, driven by shared interests in renewable energy deployment, trade and industrialisation. This renewed focus is opening doors for deeper energy partnerships, including on green hydrogen, and offers North African countries new opportunities to expand into European markets. At the same time, it raises concerns about the uneven distribution of benefits and insufficient international f ...

This Paper was originally published on springer.com This study investigates the impact of female agricultural cooperatives on women’s empowerment in Morocco, with a focus on the rural Marrakech-Safi region. The research evaluates the effectiveness of these cooperatives in enhancing women’s empowerment through economic opportunities, participatory governance, and leadership roles. The Global Empowerment Index (GEI) was adopted to measure empowerment across five key dimensions: p ...

This Paper was originally published on atlanticcouncil.org Following a decade-long partnership, the Policy Center for the New South and the Atlantic Council have joined forces around a new program focused on the power of the Atlantic. This series of publications and webinars will focus both on opportunities and challenges around the basin.This brief, the inaugural of the series, by William Yancey Brown highlights the vast energy and mineral potential of the Atlantic O ...

Les politiques industrielles semblent marquer leur retour, aussi bien dans les grandes puissances économiques que dans les pays émergents et en voie de développement, notamment après la pandémie de la Covid-19, l’accroissement des tensions géopolitiques et commerciales et les effets du changement climatique.L’Afrique n’est pas en reste, surtout qu’une prise de conscience des enjeux liés à la position continentale dans un monde multipolaire est en train de naître. Même au niveau de l ...

President Donald Trump's "Reciprocal Tariff" policy, announced on April 2, 2025 (dubbed "Liberation Day"), represents one of the most significant shifts in U.S. trade policy in nearly a century. Trump’s policy imposes a baseline 10% tariff on all imports and additional country-specific tariffs that range from 10% to 50% for countries designated as having "non-reciprocal trading practices" with the U.S. These specific tariffs are determined based on each country’s bilateral trade bal ...

In 2000, The Economist dismissed Africa as the “Hopeless Continent”—a label reflecting a broader system of marginalization rooted in colonial legacy and post-Cold War neglect. This essay offers a realist reappraisal, arguing that Africa’s growing strategic relevance is not the result of benevolence, but of structural necessity.Amid a fracturing global order and the rise of transactional geopolitics under Trump 2.0’s Bessent Doctrine, Africa has become indispensable: rich in critical ...

This paper analyses the stabilization experience in the MENA region, focusing on Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Jordan over the past century. It seeks to answer the question: To what extent have these countries succeeded in achieving resilience to shocks and stresses? Key policy elements included significant fiscal adjustments—varying in scale across countries—and exchange rate developments supported by monetary policies aimed at combating inflationary pressures. The outcomes involved ...

This Paper was originally published on tandfonline.com This paper analyzes gender disparities in reading and mathematics among Moroccan 4th-grade students using data from PIRLS 2021 (7,017 students) and TIMSS 2019 (13,536 students). Using the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method, it separates performance gaps into explained (observable characteristics such as age, family background, teacher, and school factors) and unexplained (structural) components. In reading, the unexpl ...

This Paper was originally published on cebri.org Within an ever-evolving system of multilateral development banks (MDB) currently reshaped by four structural geo-economic trends, the emergence of new MDBs like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Development Bank (NDB) carries great geopolitical significance. Yet the new MDBs, attuned to institutional and operational realities, have not upended the MDB system. Their relationship with long-e ...

This Paper was originally published on springer.com Au Maroc, en plus de leurs missions religieuses, les mosquées jouent un rôle dans l’apprentissage qualifiant des adultes, favorisant ainsi leur intégration. L’article développe un indice à caractère économique pour évaluer cette intégration. Il mobilise des données ad hoc constituées par le suivi d’une cohorte de l’ensemble des 351 apprenantes pendant cinq ans et demi. Des résultats prometteurs témoignent d’un p ...

This study draws on academic and gray literature to identify the dynamics that facilitate the emergence and proliferation of armed groups and increase vulnerabilities to violent extremism (VE). Given the growing concerns about the spread of VE to northern Benin and the rising incidents of violence, it is crucial to address these underlying factors in order to bolster community cohesion and resilience to violent conflict-particularly against recruitment and influence by violent extre ...

The impacts of climate change are increasingly manifesting through severe and multifaceted loss and damage, particularly across vulnerable regions such as the Mediterranean. These impacts extend beyond environmental degradation, contributing to forced displacement, food insecurity, political instability, and the erosion of human rights and dignity. Furthermore, they reinforce structural inequalities between the Global North and South, thereby challenging global principles of climate ...

The late twentieth-century neoliberal experiment, imposed upon Latin America and Africa under the banner of the Washington Consensus, failed both economically and morally. Though it promised prosperity through deregulation, privatisation, and fiscal austerity, it delivered instead economic stagnation, rising inequality, and the systematic dismantling of the instruments of national development. This was not technocratic wisdom, but a project of ideological enforcement that subordinat ...

This paper aims to demonstrate how certain transformations in the international economy since the 1980s¾notably the globalization of firms and industries¾combined with a set of domestic challenges, disrupted the path of industrial and technological development that Brazil had pursued since the 1930s. In essence, growth strategies based on the scale of the domestic market ceased to be effective. The innovation and economic challenges the country now faces cannot be addressed without ...

This paper was originaly published on sciencedirect.com   This paper introduces a novel empirical approach, combining sigma convergence and sigma counterfactual statistics, to examine the dynamics of structural transformation in Morocco from 1990 to 2018. The findings reveal that Morocco experienced structural transformation driven by labor productivity reallocation across sectors during specific sub-periods (1991–1993, 1996–1997, and 1998–2003). However, this process ca ...

Last week marked my twenty-third consecutive week attending the World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, DC. While I no longer participate in the official sessions, I continue to be invited to the many side conventions and debates that surround them.A key moment is always the release of the IMF's World Economic Outlook report. This year, it drew particular attention due to curiosity about how the institution would project the impacts of the tariff war initiated by Trump’s s ...

This Opinion was originally published in Project Syndicate As the US-China rivalry intensifies, both powers are courting mineral-rich African countries in an effort to secure critical raw materials. Translating Africa's vast natural-resource wealth into lasting development requires an infrastructure-led strategy that delivers long-term value for local communities. ...

The author of this opinion, Danielle Alakija, is a 2024 alumna of the Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Program. Once upon a time—or so the story went—the Global South was cast to the margins of the global development narrative. Assigned a supporting role in someone else’s story, it was exploited for its resources and subdued by the authoritative tone of external narrators. This image, painted in tones of crisis and dependency, continues to echo through textbooks and news cy ...

The author of this opinion, Isabela Carvalho, is a 2018 alumna of the Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Program. In today’s interconnected world, knowledge plays a vital role in driving change and shaping solutions. Yet despite the rise of digital tools and global collaboration, persistent gaps in how knowledge is managed and shared continue to limit the Global South’s ability to fully harness its potential. Strengthening resilient knowledge ecosystems fosters inclusive ...

The United States is at a critical juncture, facing a pivotal dilemma: preserving global leadership in a world it no longer fully controls. While it proclaims its primacy in the liberal international order, its actions tell a different story—one marked by tariffs, reshoring policies, and an open attempt to contain China’s rise. This strategy is driven less by long-term vision than domestic political calculus, underscoring the urgent need for strategic recalibration. ...

This policy brief explores the transformative role of BRICS as a platform for Global South cooperation and an emerging alternative to Western-dominated governance frameworks. Established with a shared goal of reforming international institutions and addressing global decision-making imbalances, BRICS has evolved from an economic concept into a multifaceted alliance that spans finance, diplomacy, development, and security. As the global order shifts towards multipolarity, BRICS has p ...

The second Trump administration’s reversal of federal climate policy is reshaping the U.S. energy and industrial landscape, with significant implications for macroeconomic performance, clean technology competitiveness, and global climate cooperation. While the deregulatory shift and emphasis on fossil-fuel production may generate short-term output gains in selected sectors, the long-term structural transformation necessary for sustained growth in an increasingly low-carbon global ec ...

  Marcus Vinicius De Freitas Professor, China Foreign Affairs University Senior Fellow, Policy Center for the New South The Chinese government’s white paper, ‘China’s Position on Some Issues Concerning China-US Economic and Trade Relations,[1]’ issued on April 9, 2025, in response to the escalating tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, is not just a diplomatic response to the escalating tensions with the United States. It is a meticulously crafted strategic document th ...

This paper was originaly published on journals.aserspublishing.eu   This article aims to explore the impact of migrants’ remittances on life expectancy and mortality rate of adult women left behind in north African countries. The study contributes to the literature by highlighting how remittances can support the achievement of sustainable development goals. At the same time, it investigates the extent to which remittances may challenge social policies in these countries. ...

Ce commentaire a été publié initialement sur commentaire.fr   La question du protectionnisme ne date pas du retour triomphal de Donald Trump, ni même de sa première élection : elle hante la mondialisation depuis le début du xxie siècle. Le nouveau programme du Président américain oblige toutefois à y réfléchir plus attentivement qu’on ne l’a fait jusqu’à présent. C’est l’objet de cet article.   ...

When President Donald Trump gave his State of the Union address to a joint session of the United States Congress on March 4, 2025, many of his announced tariffs went into effect. These included a 25% levy on most goods imports from Canada (10% on oil and gas) and Mexico (though Trump subsequently exempted Canadian and Mexican imports that satisfy USMCA rules of origin requirements); and 20% (doubling the 10% implemented in February) on all imports from China. A 25% tariff has been i ...

The return of President Donald Trump could significantly impact macroeconomic policy in Africa. The effects may vary across the continent. Nations that remain neutral towards U.S. influence are likely to benefit, while those aligned with the U.S.'s rivals or lacking immediate economic advantages may be deprioritized in U.S. foreign policy. In this article, we examine the channels through which U.S. policies and the change in political discourse could affect macroeconomic policies in ...

This Chapter was originally published on springer.comSo, this session really is about what's happened to global trade in the last couple of decades, of course, really since the global financial crisis, trade dependency has levelled off, peaking at around 60% in 2008, 2009.  ...

MENA faces a severe water crisis, with 12 of the world’s 17 most water-stressed countries. Climate change, population growth, inefficient water management, and weak governance drive this challenge. Water production, treatment, and distribution require high energy inputs, while energy generation depends on water for cooling and refining. The region must integrate renewable energy, especially solar power, into water solutions like desalination. Inaction could shrink GDP by up to 14% ...

Le marché du travail marocain traverse des défis structurels majeurs, avec un taux de participation relativement faible (43,5 %) et encore plus marqué chez les femmes, dont la participation reste inférieure à 20 %. Le chômage, quant à lui, est élevé, particulièrement parmi les jeunes diplômés, atteignant 30 %, et une grande partie de l'emploi urbain se trouve dans le secteur informel, représentant entre 20 et 40 % des emplois. Ce marché est également marqué par des d ...

This paper (see pages: 152-164), included in the report 'The Reckoning Regression or Renaissance?' was originally published on orfonline.org   Calls for reforms of the International Financial Architecture (IFA) are foregrounded by the growing financing needs of developing countries, driven by mounting climate-related challenges; conflict and violence; rising numbers of internally displaced persons (IDPs); and macroeconomic imbalances, including crippling debt service and ...

The traditional model of Official Development Assistance (ODA) has not only entrenched financial dependence but also served as a tool for geopolitical influence, often prioritizing donor interests over genuine economic self-sufficiency in developing nations. The 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) envisioned a shift towards private investment, but this strategy has largely failed. Capital flight, rising debt burdens, and systemic financial asymmetries have ensured that investm ...

This paper was originaly published on erf.org.eg   Youth's life paths have become increasingly challenging, especially for those classified as "Not in Education, Employment, or Training" (NEET), who comprise 31.2% of North Africa's youth population. The region faces high youth unemployment rates, with 22.3% in 2023, rising slightly to 22.5% in 2024, and projected to return to 22.3% in 2025 (ILO, 2024). Notably, North African youth not only exhibit the highest desire to m ...

Libya faces a paradox: it has a bloated public sector employing millions, yet a crippling unemployment crisis, especially among young people. According to the Libyan Audit Bureau’s 2023 report[1], over two million people work for the government, a figure that excludes state-owned enterprises such as oil companies, banks, and utilities companies. With a total labor force of 2.5 million[2], out of every ten Libyan adults, eight are employed by the government. This massive public workf ...

Chaque jour, en moyenne, les femmes marocaines consacrent près de cinq heures à des tâches domestiques (cuisine, ménage, courses, soins aux enfants, etc.). Elles assurent plus de 90 % du temps total consacré aux tâches domestiques par l’ensemble des hommes et des femmes. Ce travail non rémunéré représente des services indispensables qui participent au bien-être matériel des personnes et des foyers sans pour autant apparaître dans la production nationale, telle que mesur ...

The Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) has for over a decade advocated for the pooling of expertise, perspectives and resources to benefit developing nations, in Africa, around the South Atlantic and across the South. The need to take inspiration from one another and share analysis and good practices with each other is as pressing as it has ever been, as countries of the South strive to accumulate knowledge, capture value added and move up the value chain. Our center has notably ...

Africa First, But Africa Not Alone As the world grapples with economic fragmentation, geopolitical realignments, and an accelerating polycrisis, Africa finds itself at a historic crossroads. With its vast resources, demographic dynamism, and a growing consumer base, the continent has the potential to reshape global economic narratives. Yet, this potential remains constrained by inadequate infrastructure, limited access to global finance, and persistent structural vulnerabilities. I ...

Depuis 1956, l’économie égyptienne est en crise. Durant la période entre 1956 et 2024, elle a connu douze dévaluations et huit crises majeures de sa balance des paiements. Avec un déficit récurrent de sa balance courante, le pays est exposé au plus grand des risques : le risque souverain. Ce qui est une première faiblesse. Mais ce pays, qui a toujours réussi à s’épargner ce risque, témoigne aussi de certaines forces, ce qui constitue sa première force. De ce constat est ...

Pan-Atlantic cooperation is inspired by the opportunity to foster rising, widespread, and sustainable prosperity across Atlantic Basin societies, particularly in Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The key to unlocking this potential lies in deepening the Atlantic Basin’s already high level of intra-regional economic interdependence (when viewed as a single regional entity) and leveraging the untapped complementary opportunities within and across the Southern Atlantic. ...

This Opinion was originally published in Project Syndicate   As the world prepares for COP30 in Belém, Brazil, African countries have an opportunity to advocate for equitable carbon-pricing mechanisms that align climate action with sustainable development. While cutting emissions is important, so, too, is ensuring fairness and equity for the communities most vulnerable to climate change. ...

This Opinion was originally published in Project Syndicate   In today's global economy, developing countries must embrace a new policy framework that strengthens their macroeconomic resilience, harnesses technology for productivity growth, and fosters growth and structural transformation. None of this will be possible with an "every country for itself" mentality. ...

As geopolitical competition among superpowers intensifies, fragmenting the global economy and financial system, the role of middle powers has attracted much attention from policymakers and analysts. While there is no generally agreed list of middle powers, the term is intuitively understandable and has been used widely as referring to countries ranked below a handful of great powers, but significant enough to be able to act in response to external stimuli with some agency and with s ...

This study evaluates the economic costs for three Egyptian coastal cities of catastrophic flooding resulting from either sea-level rise or intense rainfall. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework, we assess the higher-order impacts of physical capital loss on both regional and national economies. Leveraging global flood hazard maps for various scenarios and return periods, and a 100-meter-resolution buildings-exposure model, which estimates the replacement value of r ...

This paper, included in the report "Urban Sustainable Development: Governance, Finance and Politics.", was originally published on:https://cebri.org/en/doc/356/cebri-and-rio-g20-committee-publish-urban-sustainable-development-governance-finance-and-politics  © Vormittag, Pedro, Marianna Albuquerque & Eugénie Birch (Eds.). 2024. Urban Sustainable Development: Governance, Finance and Politics. Rio de Janeiro: CEBRI.   Sustainable urban development is vital for Africa, ...

This paper, included in the report "Urban Sustainable Development: Governance, Finance and Politics.", was originally published on:https://cebri.org/en/doc/356/cebri-and-rio-g20-committee-publish-urban-sustainable-development-governance-finance-and-politics  © Vormittag, Pedro, Marianna Albuquerque & Eugénie Birch (Eds.). 2024. Urban Sustainable Development: Governance, Finance and Politics. Rio de Janeiro: CEBRI.   The article discusses the role of sustainable and ...

This paper (see pages: 181-186), included in the report 'Foresight Africa - Top Priorities for the Continent 2025-2030,' was originally published on brookings.edu   In an increasingly fragmented world grappling with common challenges such as the global climate crisis, the Atlantic Ocean can be leveraged for Africa’s climate action, continental integration, contribution to the provision of global public goods, development, improved participation to the global economy, int ...

Este artículo se publicó originalmente en legrandcontinent.eu En una era de interconexión mundial sin precedentes, los países en desarrollo se enfrentan a un panorama económico cada vez más complejo y a menudo hostil. Este panorama está configurado por tres grupos principales de limitaciones políticas. En primer lugar, el aumento entre las grandes potencias de las tendencias proteccionistas ha hecho más difícil el entorno mundial, sobre todo porque las economías avanzadas recu ...

The agreement reached at COP 29 to provide $300 billion annually in climate financing to developing countries (excluding China) by 2035 marks a significant milestone, tripling the previous target. Yet, the response from developing countries has been overwhelmingly negative. A statement from the group of least developed countries labeled the agreement “a staggering betrayal of the world’s most vulnerable.” Similarly, representatives from major developing countries like India and Nige ...

Este artículo se publicó originalmente en legrandcontinent.eu   Varios países africanos están ascendiendo silenciosamente en la cadena de valor de los vehículos eléctricos. Campo de batalla de la rivalidad sino-estadounidense por los materiales críticos, África podría encontrar una oportunidad en la nueva fragmentación mundial de las cadenas de suministro. Estudio de caso de la República Democrática del Congo. Las sucesivas perturbaciones de las cadenas de suministro ...

Ce papier a été initialement publié sur legrandcontinent.eu   À bas bruit, plusieurs pays africains sont en train de monter dans la chaîne de valeur des véhicules électriques. Terrain de bataille de la rivalité sino-américaine sur les matières critiques, l’Afrique pourrait trouver dans la nouvelle fragmentation mondiale des chaînes d’approvisionnement une opportunité. Étude de cas depuis la République démocratique du Congo. Les perturbations successives des chaînes d’ ...

This Paper was originally published on geopolitique.eu In an era of unprecedented global interconnectedness, developing countries face an increasingly complex and often hostile economic landscape. This landscape is shaped by three main groups of policy constraints. First, the rise among major powers of protectionist tendencies has made the global environment more challenging, particularly as advanced economies increasingly turn to industrial policies to achieve specific econom ...

Ce papier a été initialement publié sur legrandcontinent.eu   Alors que le monde n’a jamais été si interconnecté, les pays en développement sont confrontés à un paysage économique de plus en plus complexe et souvent hostile, façonné par trois grands groupes de contraintes politiques distinctes. Premièrement, la montée des tendances protectionnistes parmi les grandes puissances a rendu l’environnement mondial plus difficile, en particulier parce que les économies avancées se t ...

This paper assesses the outcomes of COP29 in Baku, focusing on its achievements and shortcomings in advancing global climate governance. Key milestones included the adoption of the new collective quantified goal (NCQG), the tripling of climate finance commitments to $300 billion annually by 2035, and progress on Article 6 carbon markets to mobilize international cooperation and finance. However, finance remains insufficient to meet the needs of developing countries, and unresolved i ...

The European Union’s (EU) Global Gateway initiative, established to enhance global connectivity and sustainable infrastructure, offers a significant opportunity to align with Africa’s development goals under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). However, the challenge lies in whether the Global Gateway can effectively complement AfCFTA’s objectives of boosting intra-African trade and industrialization by addressing critical infrastructure gaps. This paper examines how th ...

The G20 Summit held in November 2024 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, under the Brazilian G20 presidency, showed what decentering from the Western agenda and Western domination of world politics could mean. The summit’s main achievement was the constitution of an Alliance against Hunger and Poverty, with a membership of, and funds mobilized from, not only all G20 members, but also from more than 60 other countries. In fact, what the West showed was discomfort at not having its agenda, its ...

2024 marked the largest election year in history, with millions of people across the world going to the polls to elect their representatives and leaders. However, in the Global North, Donald Trump’s decisive election victory in the United States threatens to undermine multilateral governance structures that are already under strain. In the Global South, emerging economies from the expanded BRICS group and beyond strive to speak with a single voice, and their ...

This paper was originally published on accscience.com The Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly affected the global workforce, with certain occupational groups facing greater challenges than others. Atypical part-time, temporary, and gig job workers are among the most vulnerable. This paper first examines the impact of the COVID-19 health crisis on atypical/ contingent workers by firm size, industry, and region. Second, we explore the factors determining ...

Communities around the Lake Chad Basin (LCB) rely on three major economic activities: farming, fishing, and livestock herding. The floods that began in August 2024 damaged and destroyed hundreds of thousands of hectares of farmland, killed thousands of livestock, and rendered fishing unsafe for fishermen. This climate shock caused families dependent on these activities to lose their primary sources of income. Worse still, these economic activities also serve as the main source of da ...

At the recent Annual Meeting of the Global Future Councils in Dubai (15-17 October), a thought-provoking session titled “Skills in the Age of AI” brought together international experts to examine how artificial intelligence will impact the future of work and education. The discussions highlighted an impending transformation, with AI poised to reshape and redefine the skills landscape over the next decade. Here, we explore some key ideas from the session and the essential skills need ...

This blog was originaly published on orfonline.org.   The maritime industry is the lifeblood of global trade, with ships carrying over 90 percent of all merchandise trade, and the global logistics market accounting for 8-12 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP). The smooth functioning of maritime trade and supply chain logistics is integral to economic development and critical to food security and the distribution of ...

This paper was originaly published on muse.jhu.edu   This study analyzes the influence of local labor market characteristics on student dropout pathways in Morocco. Beyond individual determinants, early school leaving may depend on dropouts’ local environment. This study mobilized original empirical material that combines individual and spatial data from Morocco’s 75 provinces. First, we conducted a cartographic analysis of 10- to 14-year-old children who left the educat ...

This blog was originally published in the book Urban Sustainable Development: Governance, Finance, and Politics, a collaborative effort by the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI) and the Rio de Janeiro City Hall. The Policy Center for the New South has contributed as a Knowledge Partner to this work.   I belong to a city that has been evolving positively for 20 years. Rabat has one of the world’s highest rates of green space per square meter per capita. ...

This paper was originally published on springer.com Wage subsidy policies’ impact on access to the first job is crucial for workers; however, their influence on job quality holds greater significance for society as a whole. This paper evaluates the impact of the “IDMAJ” wage subsidy program on job quality, extending beyond the traditional focus solely on job placement. Utilizing the complete database from the IDMAJ program survey conducted by the Ministry of Employment, this study ...

At the COP29 climate summit that began on November 11, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan, one of the main focuses is Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Article 6, introduced at COP21 in 2015 and shaped through years of negotiation, enables countries to meet climate targets collaboratively, either through carbon markets or non-market strategies. This section of the Paris Agreement has the potential to unlock significant climate finance, cut the cost of reducing emissions, and foster cooperati ...

This paper was originaly published on tandfonline.com   Our study provides an in-depth examination of the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Morocco, revealing key threshold effects through a nonlinear smooth transition model (STAR). Analysis of Moroccan banking and stock market development indexes reveals that the stock market was significantly impacted by the 2008 global financial crisis, showing a decline, while the banking system contin ...

This paper was originally published on thebrenthurstfoundation.org   Situated at the northwest borders of the continent, between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, Morocco has established itself as a stable and dynamic economy and a gateway to Africa. A part of the Maghreb and Arab world, the country has for many decades embraced a policy of economic and financial openness, aiming to integrate its economy into global markets. According to the United Nations Co ...

This study quantifies the contributions of Brazil’s blue economy and explores the economic interdependence between coastal and hinterland regions through interregional linkages. Employing a multi-level approach, we analyze municipality and state-level data on oceanrelated activities. Using an interstate input-output model, we estimate the value chains of the blue economy, offering a deeper understanding of its systemic impacts. This study addresses gaps in national, regional, and lo ...

Using panel data from a large group of developing economies and a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, we examine the effects of trade and other factors on female labor-force participation and wage employment. We focus particularly on comparing the effects of trade openness in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The empirical results indicate that trade openness affects female labor-force p ...

Ding, dang, dong… Vous avez certainement entendu sonner le carillon. C’est la rentrée. Ou les rentrées. Elles s’étalent sur quasiment deux mois tant la reprise est plurielle et concerne des acteurs ou des agents multiples. La rentrée des élèves, tout d’abord. À la mi-septembre déjà, ils ont enlevé le sable de leurs chaussettes, rangé leurs nouvelles fournitures scolaires. Mais pas seulement, celle des parents aussi : septembre est le mois de toutes les dépenses :  les frai ...

This paper was originally published on cambridge.org   This paper explores the (de-)routinisation of employment structure in developing countries, through the case of Morocco. We investigate employment (de-)routinisation from an often-overlooked perspective, aiming to elucidate the interplay between the dynamics of occupational employment composition by the level of routine tasks intensity and two structural aspects: premature deindustrialisation and the prevalence of in ...

The digital revolution is bringing about a dramatic shift in power, from labor to capital. We assess what the impact of this transformation might be on land as a factor of production. The digital revolution is not happening in a historical vacuum. It unfolds within a framework of confrontation or collusion between market forces and government forces. Depending on the market power that companies can exercise, the digital transition will have different impacts on income distributions ...

Depuis que l’économie a été reconnue par les Nobel, en 1969, c’est à elle que revient de clore la semaine des cérémonies consacrées à la remise des prix. C’est ainsi que le 14 octobre 2024 trois hommes ont été nominés par l’Académie suédoise : un économiste turco-américain, Daron Acemoglu (MIT), un économiste britannique Simon Johnson (MIT) et un économiste américain James A.Robinson de l’Université de Chicago. Trois lauréats qui travaillent dans des universités américaines rec ...