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Illusions causales de la modélisation classique de la croissance
Authors
Lahcen Oulhaj
November 19, 2025

La modélisation classique de la croissance repose sur des outils – notamment la fonction de production agrégée et la comptabilité de la croissance – dont les incohérences logiques et les ambiguïtés épistémologiques sont connues depuis la Controverse de Cambridge et les travaux d’Anwar Shaikh. Pourtant, ces failles continuent d’alimenter des raisonnements fallacieux dans le débat économique et les discours institutionnels. Cet article montre que la nature tautologique de ces outils n’est pas une simple curiosité technique, mais la source même des illusions causales qui persistent dans l’analyse et la communication économique, telles que l’idée d’une « croissance tirée par la consommation » ou d’une « productivité totale des facteurs » agissant comme cause autonome. 

En retraçant la généalogie de ces confusions, du modèle de Solow à la comptabilité nationale, l’article démontre que le cadre néoclassique transforme des identités comptables ex post en explications causales ex ante. Ce glissement méthodologique conduit à une vision mécanique et circulaire de la croissance, où la description tient lieu d’explication. 

Sur cette base, l’article plaide pour une refondation de l’analyse de la croissance autour d’une approche plus réaliste, qui intègre la demande effective, le capital naturel et immatériel, ainsi que les interactions complexes entre acteurs hétérogènes. La croissance doit être pensée non comme un processus à piloter, mais comme un phénomène émergent, fruit d’un écosystème économique et institutionnel à cultiver plutôt qu’à contrôler.

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