Americas and Carribean

Strategic hedging is rational when it preserves a worthwhile choice at a tolerable cost while respecting existing commitments. Drawing on the literature on hedging and Latin American autonomy, this Policy Brief examines contrasting illustrations of that proposition. It distinguishes ambiguity about future alignment from uncertainty about existing obligations and explains how clearly bounded commitments can reconcile autonomy with credibility. The cases reveal different vulnerabiliti ...

In October 2026, Brazil will elect its president. It will also renew the entire lower legislative chamber and two-thirds of the upper chamber, elect governors in all states, and renew state legislatures. What will be the impact of these elections nationally, regionally, and internationally? Who are the main presidential candidates, and what are their agendas? What are the main challenges facing Brazil over the coming years? These are the questions that this Policy Brief seeks to ans ...

In the first seven Policy Briefs of this ongoing series of analysis on Pan-Atlanticism: The Atlantic Basin in a Multipolar-Transnational World, we developed the argument that the strategic significance of the Atlantic Basin is on the rise for a range of international actors (states, regions and non-state agents) and from distinct political or ideological perspectives. In addition, in the most recently published Policy Brief -- “The U.S. and the Current International Reconfiguration: ...

Brazil's election poses a question that extends well beyond Latin America: how much freedom does a country retain to define its international role when external pressure collides with domestic political exhaustion? For the Global South, the answer matters more than any foreign government's preference regarding the next occupant of the presidential palace. Strategic autonomy remains fragile if every change of government puts a country's freedom of action back up for negotiation. ...

You can imagine how often I've been asked to comment on where the Brazilian economy is headed after the election. With polls pointing to a runoff on October 25 and currently showing a statistical tie between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in vote simulations, I'm naturally asked about their economic programs and about the country's relations with the United States. ...

The Latin America and Caribbean region has made considerable progress in poverty reduction and improving food security since COVID-19. However, the improvements have not been driven by inclusive growth.A characteristic feature of the LAC experience is that major disparities in economic performance, poverty reduction, and food security exist, e.g., among regions; between rural and urban areas; between genders. In addition to these disparities, large farmers, the minority in dualistic ...

The Brazilian context involving a clean-electricity base, a more balanced lobbying landscape, and mounting climate and social pressure, makes it more difficult for the kind of abrupt and unrestrained energy policy swing seen in Colombia. The trend in Brazil tends to be more economically viable for renewables. However, these structural conditions by themselves will not guarantee the success of the transition. Fruition will depend on whether policymakers use this window to prepare for ...

The author of this opinion, Joana Ama Osei-Tutu, is a 2017 alumna of the Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Program.South-South cooperation (SSC) is often presented as an alternative to the hierarchical relationships that have historically characterized international development. In principle, SSC means Global South countries learn from one another, share expertise and resources, and develop solutions grounded in their own experiences, rather than importing models designe ...

La géographie mondiale des hydrocarbures n'est évidemment pas figée. De nouveaux producteurs de pétrole et/ou de gaz naturel apparaissent suite à des découvertes, le plus souvent réalisées par des compagnies pétrolières internationales. On pense notamment au Mozambique, qui produit et exporte du gaz naturel liquéfié (GNL) depuis la fin 2022, au Sénégal, qui est un producteur de pétrole offshore depuis la mi-2024, et au Sénégal et à la Mauritanie, qui sont devenus conjointement expor ...

This policy paper explores how China’s economic development model—rooted in pragmatism, long-term planning, and civilizational renewal—has become its most compelling soft power asset, particularly in the eyes of the Global South. While critically engaging with Joseph Nye’s original conception of soft power as a primarily cultural and normative force, the paper argues that China’s ability to transform itself from an impoverished postimperial state into the world’s largest trading nat ...

An estimated 600,000 Haitians live legally on US soil, most of them in New York City and Florida. Another 500,000 are waiting—certainly in vain—for entry papers. In September, the Trump government ended a special “Temporary Protected Status” for an estimated 300,000 Haitian migrants, and possibly another 500,000 migrants temporarily settled in the U.S., including Afghans, Cubans, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans. The Trump regime is claiming that the violence-plagued Caribbean nation of ...