Publications /
Paper in Academic Journals

Back
The vulnerable workforce: COVID-19 and the fate of atypical workers
Authors
Zakaria Elouaourti
December 8, 2024

This paper was originally published on accscience.com

The Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly affected the global workforce, with certain occupational groups facing greater challenges than others. Atypical part-time, temporary, and gig job workers are among the most vulnerable. This paper first examines the impact of the COVID-19 health crisis on atypical/ contingent workers by firm size, industry, and region. Second, we explore the factors determining the increase/decrease of the temporary labor force at the firm level. Third, we aim to verify the empirical validity of the Schumpeterian “destruction creative” hypothesis since any crisis is associated with destroying old jobs and creating new job needs. We mobilized a firm-level database of 12,193 firms from 19 countries and a dynamic logit model methodology. Our empirical results show that atypical workers were among those most impacted by COVID-19. Results by firm size show that small firms raised the probability of increasing the level of the temporary labor force, as opposed to medium- and large-sized firms. Results by sector of activity revealed that firms operating in sectors other than construction (hotels and restaurants, retail trade, IT, transport, machinery, and equipment) were less likely to increase their temporary labor force. Geographic location is a key driver of the increase or decrease in a firm’s temporary workforce. Furthermore, insufficiently educated labor and regulations drive temporary labor variations. Finally, the Schumpeterian “creative destruction” hypothesis was empirically confirmed.

RELATED CONTENT

  • May 12, 2026
    Why only globally connected, knowledge-intensive services — not local services — can drive long-term development and productivity growth. This Commentary was originally published on stimson.org For decades, manufacturing was considered the indispensable engine of economic development, creating jobs, boosting productivity, and integrating countries into global markets. But automation, robotics, and intensifying global competition have made industrialization far harder for d ...
  • Authors
    Hajar Kabbach
    May 11, 2026
    Closing Morocco's gender employment gap could increase GDP per capita by 40-50 percent; yet female labor force participation stands at just 19 percent—among the lowest in the world and still declining. This policy paper argues that investing in the care economy is not merely a social expenditure, but a productive economic strategy with measurable returns. Drawing on international evidence from Uruguay, Mexico, Colombia, and India, the brief demonstrates that well-designed care syste ...
  • Authors
    April 30, 2026
    This paper is the second in a series examining services-led development and global value chain (GVC) integration in the Global South. It applies a three-category analytical framework covering knowledge services (ICT and professional business services), enabling services (transport, logistics, and finance), and local services (retail, hospitality, health, and personal services), to OECD Trade in Value Added indicators. The paper thus  ...
  • April 29, 2026
    Cette chronique a été initialement publiée sur le site lesechos.fr Les économies en développement font face à un double défi : créer des emplois à grande échelle tout en soutenant la productivité. Quels types de services permettent cette convergence ? Les économistes Hinh T. Dinh et Karim El Aynaoui répondent dans la chronique du « Cercle des économistes ».Les services peuvent-ils se substituer à l'industrie manufacturière comme moteur du développement ...
  • April 27, 2026
    This episode examines firms’ access to finance in Morocco, highlighting its critical role in business creation and growth, especially for SMEs. It challenges common assumptions by showing that medium-sized firms, rather than small ones, face the most binding financial constraints. The d...
  • April 27, 2026
    This episode examines Morocco’s handicraft sector, highlighting its economic importance as a major source of employment and value creation, despite being often overlooked. It presents new empirical evidence showing the sector’s gradual shift toward more formalized SMEs, while exposing i...
  • Authors
    April 20, 2026
    This paper was published as a book chapter in “The Economic Potential of Islamic Countries, Part B: Sustainability, Governance, Energy and Digital Transformation,” released by Emerald Publishing. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed significant deficiencies within social protection systems worldwide, especially in Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries. This underscores the urgent need to fortify these social protection schemes to ensure resilience in the face of crises (Sa ...
  • April 13, 2026
    Résumé exécutif stratégiqueLe Maroc s’est engagé avec détermination dans une trajectoire de modernisation fondée sur la transition numérique, la transition verte et l’innovation. Ces dynamiques sont devenues des leviers stratégiques pour la compétitivité, l’attractivité et la création d’emplois à forte valeur ajoutée. Pourtant, l’analyse des données microéconomiques récentes révèle un paradoxe préoccupant : les entreprises les plus modernisées, moteurs de la croissance de demain, re ...
  • Authors
    March 12, 2026
    Historically, manufacturing has served as the primary pathway to economic development, offering strong scale economies, learning-by-doing effects, and the capacity to generate the foreign exchange necessary to import capital goods and technology. However, advances in robotization and artificial intelligence (AI) are fundamentally undermining manufacturing’s traditional role, making it increasingly skill- and capital-intensive while limiting its ability to absorb labor. Thi ...