Growth Implications of a Fractured Trading System

Last week marked my twenty-third consecutive week attending the World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, DC. While I no longer participate in the official sessions, I continue to be invited to the many side conventions and debates that surround them. A key moment is always the release of the IMF's World Economic Outlook report. This year, it drew particular attention due to curiosity about how the institution would project the impacts of the tariff war initiated by Trump’s ...

The United States is at a critical juncture, facing a pivotal dilemma: preserving global leadership in a world it no longer fully controls. While it proclaims its primacy in the liberal international order, its actions tell a different story—one marked by tariffs, reshoring policies, and an open attempt to contain China’s rise. This strategy is driven less by long-term vision than domestic political calculus, underscoring the urgent need for strategic recalibration. ...

  Marcus Vinicius De Freitas Professor, China Foreign Affairs University Senior Fellow, Policy Center for the New South The Chinese government’s white paper, ‘China’s Position on Some Issues Concerning China-US Economic and Trade Relations,[1]’ issued on April 9, 2025, in response to the escalating tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, is not just a diplomatic response to the escalating tensions with the United States. It is a meticulously crafted strategic document th ...

When President Donald Trump gave his State of the Union address to a joint session of the United States Congress on March 4, 2025, many of his announced tariffs went into effect. These included a 25% levy on most goods imports from Canada (10% on oil and gas) and Mexico (though Trump subsequently exempted Canadian and Mexican imports that satisfy USMCA rules of origin requirements); and 20% (doubling the 10% implemented in February) on all imports from China. A 25% tariff has been i ...

This Chapter was originally published on springer.comSo, this session really is about what's happened to global trade in the last couple of decades, of course, really since the global financial crisis, trade dependency has levelled off, peaking at around 60% in 2008, 2009.  ...