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Closer to a ‘Third World War’
When in the last week of July, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Trump at his estate in Florida, the Republican candidate insisted to his visitor, who is attempting to eliminate all hopes of an independent Palestinian states through violence and destruction: “You are close to a third world war now, more than at any time since the Second World War. You’ve never been so close, because we have incompetent people running our country” (The Hill, July 9, 2024).In a Press meeting at his home and private club in Mar a Lago, Palm Beach , Florida , Trump, reported the “New York Times”(August 9, 2024) was trying to “shoehorn himself back into a national conversation”, which his rival Kamala Harris dominated. If he should not win the election, the Republican candidate told the Press, the US would be in mortal danger, and what that means, he made clear: possibly a Second World War.
Again Donald Trump insulted the intelligence of the Democrat, who possibly in six months will be sworn in as the first U.S. female and Asian American President. Prior to the Press meeting he insulted Kamala Harris as “dumb as a rock”, and as a ”radical left lunatic who will destroy our country” (VOA, July 31, 2024; CNN, July 25, 2024). Already in 2008, when Obama ran for President, Trump, then a TV personality, insisted that since article two of the US Constitution demanded a Presidential candidate to be a natural born Barack Obama was born in Kenya and not Hawaii, and that his birth certificate was a fake, and thus he could not be elected President. The Republican, the first former U.S. President to be been found guilty of a felony, now insists that Kamala Harris can’t be a presidential candidate either, since her parents were not naturalized U.S. citizens when she was born. Trump accuses his rival as being an antisemite and enemy of the state of Israel, although Kamala Harris has been married to Jewish lawyer Doug Emhoff for nearly ten years. Trump has claimed for months that Joe Biden secretly orchestrated the criminal and civil legal cases he faces. Since Kamala Harris turned from Vice President to Presidential candidate, Trump has accused her of being part of the conspiracy: ”It was all headed up by her. Because she is a prosecutor.”
‘They Are Going to Walk All Over Her’
Since the Democrats have virtually confirmed Kamala Harris, 59, officially as their candidate for President, all gloves are off. Insults and racial slurs are part of the daily dose of headlines, including repeated lies by Trump that his opponent, a former Attorney General and Senator of California, never passed her bar examinations, a requirement to be registered as a lawyer. Furthermore, she is supporting abortions, including “the execution of babies” after birth. And yes, it almost seems impossible for Trump to lose (unless the elections are once again manipulated), since the Republican “is running against a low IQ individual”. Should she be sworn in on January 25, 2025, as the 47th President of the United States, the stock market will crash, predicts Trump, and the wealth of America, the world, will be wiped out. The enemies of America will rejoice and “look at her and they will say we can’t believe we got so lucky. They are going to walk all over her”.
Trump, who for a time switched between court rooms and election campaign events, defending himself against a rape accusation, election manipulation and falsification of documents, is promising his voters that after his election, for one day, he will act like a dictator, following those global leaders he feels closest to: Putin, Orban, Kim Jong Un. Then he will settle the Ukraine and Russian war: “I’ll have that done—I’ll have that done in 24 hours” (CNN Town Hall, May 2023). During his presidential term, Trump attempted to halt the migrant flows at the southern borders by building a (never completed) wall, spending billions. His government deported an estimated 935 089 people. For his next presidency, the Republican is focusing on deporting ALL undocumented, meaning illegal, foreigners, amounting in his opinion to 15 million to 20 million illegals. It would be a mega project, including internment camps, and the forceful removal of children. For Trump, the U.S. is suffering “an invasion of our country”, and an invasion justifies the involvement of the U.S. armed forces in arresting and deporting masses of migrants, many of whom just overstayed their visas, and can’t get an appointment in the immigration courts to solve their predicaments.
For his next administration, he has promised more tax cuts for the billionaire class, following the post-2016 $1.5 trillion tax cut, as analyzed by the authors Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman in their bestseller ‘The Triumph of Injustice’. The tax cut helped billionaires pay a lower rate than the working class for a first time in history. The richest 400 families in the U.S., reported The Guardian, paid “an average tax rate of 23 percent, while the bottom half of households paid a rate of 24.2 percent” (Guardian, October 9, 2019).
Two worlds are clashing, two systems of government. No pollster, no opinion poll, as of summer 2024, has determined how the so-called swing states will vote: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin. Democracy, noted the New Yorker (January 15, 2024), is now in the hands of a small band of voters in half a dozen states, whose feelings about Trump will determine whether it will endure or fall. “America’s democracy is under assault”, voiced the Brookings Institution (May 17, 2022). “The country is still reeling from the lasting effects of the January 6 insurrection and other coordinated efforts to overthrow the 2020 election … the online ecosystem, rife with misinformation and disinformation, continues to sow distrust among our citizenry and threaten many of our democratic institutions”. Two years later the think tank is even more concerned: “America’s democracy is under threat. How do we protect it?” (June 17, 2024). In the past decade, liberal democracies around the world have been attacked from within, and the United States is no exception. Democratic decline is of increased significance in a presidential election year in which many expect there to be challenges to the results, similar to those in 2020: violence, the storming of one important symbol of U.S. democracy, the Congress.
Democracies are attempting to resist populist forces and far-right movements, which for the time being are participating mostly within the democratic process. 2024 will set a record for the greatest number of people living in countries that are holding nationwide elections: more than four billion, or just over half of humanity, The continent with the most elections in 2024 is Africa, the results closely observed and analyzed by the” Policy Center For the New South”.
France saw dramatic results in the European elections in June 2024, with Macron’s Renaissance party scoring only 15.2% of the vote. “French far right obliterates Macron’s Party in EU elections”, stated Politico (June 9, 2024). The French President dissolved the French Parliament and called for new parliamentary elections on June 30 and July 7. The radical right, the Assemblymen National, won 143 seats in the Assemblée Nationale, but was halted by the newly formed Nouveau Front Populaire, which won 182 seats, whereas Macron’s Coalition secured just 168, not enough to hold on to power. France, inhaling the glorious spirit of the Olympic Games, is led by a caretaker government—difficult power-sharing negotiations are certain. For an absolute majority in the Assemblée of 577 deputies, 289 seats are needed. Rishi Sunak, United Kingdom Prime Minister since October 2022, dared political suicide by calling early parliamentary elections, which cost his party 244 seats and power in government for years to come. The Labour opposition returned to power after a 14-year absence, gaining 209 seats for a total of 411 (House of Commons Library, July 26, 2024).
Policy Center for the New South analysts have closely followed the political avalanche of elections, whether in Africa, Europe or Asia. Abdelhak Bassou published his report, ‘South Africa’s May 2024 Elections, will the African National Congress continue to govern alone?’ on April 26, 2024. In the same month, Senior Fellow Dominique Bocquet presented his study ‘Biden’s Presidency—a Method’. In June, Abdadellasam Saad Jaidi presented his ‘Retrospective Analysis of the 2024 Indian elections’, and published (June 12, 2024) a ‘Retrospective Analysis of the 2024 European Elections’, focusing on the thesis, “the European Parliament Renews itself in a Europe Facing Significant Transitions”. “Venezuela at the crossroads: the Presidential elections of July 28 and their consequences”, analyzed Nizar Messari (July 26, 2024), which soon caught up with reality, giving the publication by the Policy Center of the new South a new urgency.“What happened to Venezuela’s democracy”, asked Julie Turkewitz in the New York Times (July 30, 2024). She gave the answer herself: “Venezuela turned into an authoritarian regime, one that opponents say, just stole an election”. The accusation was confirmed by Washington: “Venezuela’s opposition ‘clearly’ defeated Maduro, says US” (AFP, July 31, 2024). Secretary of State Anthony Blinken had no doubt, the “evidence is overwhelming”.
Devastating Consequences
Losing power, explained CNN (July 29, 2024) “could have devastating consequences” for dictator Nicolas Maduro, who is facing drug trafficking and corruption charges in the U.S., and is under investigation for crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court. Were he to relinquish control without an agreement in place, he could end up in prison. Possible time behind bars may be on the mind of Donald Trump as well; should he be elected President again, Trump may be able to pardon himself. Difficult to say, noted NPR (June 4, 2018): “no president had had the reason or temerity for such self-dealing abuse of power”. If the Republican candidate fails in his reelection attempt, various court cases would be reopened, and Donald Trump could end up in jail after all. Unless the former prosecutor Kamala Harris grants the convicted felon Donald Trump a presidential pardon.
