International Relations

This article examines the quiet but profound implications of the erosion of U.S.-led hegemony for small and vulnerable states of the New South. While the post-1945 international order was never egalitarian, it offered predictability: power was organized through law, and sovereignty for weaker states rested less on justice than on procedural stability. Davos 2026 marked a turning point in the public acknowledgment of that system’s unraveling. Statements by leading Western figures rev ...

From the use of tariffs as a foreign policy instrument, to the weaponization of critical resources, and from targeted sanctions to attacks on critical infrastructure, economic security is at the forefront of international debates. The aggressive use of economic instruments for strategic purposes has become an explicit feature of international affairs, in a way not seen since the interwar period[1]. Beyond the weaponization of resources of all kinds, an increasing ‘monetization’ is u ...

The 2026 World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting took place in an environment of elevated economic uncertainty and structural risk repricing. According to the Global Risks Report (GRR) 2026, geoeconomic confrontation and economic downturn rank among the most severe near-term risks, while inflation-related risks and economic volatility have risen sharply in perceived severity compared with the previous edition. Notably, 50% of respondents to the Global Risks Perception Survey ...

Le Mali, le Burkina Faso et le Niger, réunis au sein de l’Alliance des États du Sahel (AES), affirment l’ambition de bâtir une souveraineté nationale qui leur permettrait de s’émanciper de la domination et des influences extérieures et de se doter d’une liberté d’action dans les choix de développement politique et économique. Cependant, cette ambition se heurte à de nombreuses contraintes économiques et sécuritaires.La souveraineté ne peut se construire sans une base économique soli ...

This Opinion was originally published by the Hanns Seidel Stiftung on January 19th, 2026. The author of this opinion, Gabriela Keseberg Dávalos, is a 2013 alumna of the Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Program. The signing of the EU–Mercosur agreement is a small geopolitical miracle. Signed on 17 January 2026 in Paraguay, it arrives at a moment when Europe is unmistakably being cast aside by the United States. Meanwhile Latin America, and with it, the Mer ...

The post-1945 international order, an architecture born of war-weariness and colonial twilight, is now a majestic but empty shell. Its foundational promise—a universal system of rules administered impartially—has been hollowed out by decades of selective enforcement, instrumentalized law, and a chasm between the rhetorical ideals of its custodians and their geopolitical practice. This is not a temporary dysfunction, but a systemic failure of legitimacy. From the invasion of Iraq und ...

In response to developing countries’ dissatisfaction with the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) of $300 billion, which was decided at the Twenty-Ninth Conference Of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, in 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan, the COP29 and COP30 presidencies promised to develop a roadmap to achieve $1.3 trillion in external climate finance that developing countries need, and to present it at COP30 in Belém, Brazil[1]. The two pre ...

Global cooperation is under stress. It hardly requires detailed analysis: the international system is in a profound crisis, when seen from many Northern vantage points. What if we see the same turbulence but from a different vantage point? For many in the Global South the current period signals risk, but also opportunity. That the same events could spark a sense of crisis in one group but opportunity in another is nothing new. However, the sheer scale, speed, and scope of recen ...

La création de l’Alliance des États du Sahel (AES) symbolise une rupture politique et géostratégique majeure, appuyée sur un discours souverainiste et anti-occidental. Deux ans après, Mali, Burkina Faso et Niger peinent à assurer leur intégrité territoriale, à stabiliser leur sécurité intérieure et à bâtir une gouvernance solide. L’intégrité territoriale est un problème commun aux trois États, car dans ces pays, la cohésion de l’État et le contrôle du territoire sont directement men ...

The candidate could not have been more controversial—or more celebrated. Born in Kampala, the capital of Uganda, once ruled by Idi Amin, who famously declared himself “Conqueror of the British Empire” and “King of Scotland,” Zohran Kwama Mamdani, 34, is of Indian descent. His father is an academic, a professor of anthropology at Columbia University, his mother, Mira Nair, is an influential filmmaker. Zohran arrived in the USA on a visa at age seven. No doubt the agents of the feared ...

Ce Policy Paper analyse les enjeux politiques, économiques et opérationnels du Fonds pour les pertes et dommages, créé pour répondre aux impacts climatiques irréversibles subis par les pays les plus vulnérables. Il clarifie d’abord la notion de pertes et dommages, qui mêle effets économiques et non économiques, et souligne les défis d’attribution liés à la superposition entre chocs climatiques et fragilités structurelles. L’analyse met ensuite en lumière les tensions d’économie poli ...

Fuel access has become a strategic pressure point across Mali and its neighbors. In 2025, Jama’t Nusrat al Islam wal- Muslimeen (JNIM) shifted from sporadic interdictions to a deliberate fuel-blockade strategy intended to pressure Bamako without holding territory. By selectively constraining movement along the Sikasso–Kayes–Bamako corridor, the group turned fuel scarcity into a tool of coercion, governance, and narrative control—shaping behavior in the capital while remaining largel ...

The U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean—the most significant since the Cuban Missile Crisis—comes at a moment when a new world order is taking shape, its contours still unclear, and in which the U.S. seeks to be more assertive in the Western Hemisphere. This disposition toward South America and the Caribbean was underscored by the recent publication of the new U.S. National Security Strategy, in which the Monroe Doctrine is explicitly invoked. This Policy Brief situates the devel ...

The return of President Donald Trump to the White House at the start of 2025 was expected to signal an American retreat from international engagement, especially in regions of traditional security interest, such as southern Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. To the surprise of many observers around the Mediterranean, and perhaps to the dismay of some in the Trump administration’s ideological orbit, this has not happened. If anything, the second half of 2025 has seen a high d ...

I recently participated in a discussion between Israelis and Arabs, some living in the Middle East, some living abroad[1]. The discussion topic was ‘The Two State Solution’. This article presents my personal takeaways from the discussion. It does not try to describe the details, and other participants may have different takeaways.I joined the discussion thinking that the two-state solution was dead. Most of the other participants felt the same way—all very pessimistic. But I left fe ...

An unusual gesture indeed—the dictator, more often than not a recluse, withdrawn behind his fortress and protected by 1.2 million armed soldiers, finally admitted what had long been seen on the battlefield in Ukraine and by spy satellites far above. North Korean soldiers—possibly 12,000 of them—are fighting on front lines alongside Russian troops, and they are falling or being wounded; some 4,000 men so far, by current estimates.  ...

In 2025, the global landscape became increasingly fragmented and uncertain. Great power competition intensified, regional conflicts became protracted and exacerbated, while economic nationalism reshaped the rules of trade and development. The mechanisms for conflict resolution and cooperation that have long provided a foundation for international cooperation are now under strain due to polarization and mistrust. Even longstanding alliances, bilateral and collective security architec ...

La résolution 2797 du Conseil de sécurité des Nations Unies ne marque pas la fin d’un dossier, mais l’aboutissement d’une gestion magistrale du temps. Le Maroc n’a pas seulement gagné des appuis, il a gagné le tempo.
En combinant le Chronos de la constance et le Kairos de l’opportunité, il a démontré qu’une politique étrangère pouvait s’appuyer sur la philosophie du temps autant que sur la géopolitique.Cette diplomatie du temps maîtrisé peut aujourd’hui être considérée comme une doc ...

This Paper was originally published on transatlantic.org The contemporary maritime domain is increasingly recognized as a geopolitical and economic space, but also as an environment intertwined with human, social, ecological, and governance systems ashore. The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR 2024) report argues that maritime security has evolved from a narrow naval and state-centered concern into a multidimensional issue embedded in global human s ...

The adoption of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2803 on November 17, 2025, endorsing the “Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict,” is a step in the right direction, but it must be accompanied by the implementation of a Gaza development and post-conflict reconstruction program. Paragraph 6 of Resolution 2803 “calls upon the World Bank and other financial institutions to facilitate and provide financial resources to support the reconstruction and development of Ga ...

Le 17 novembre 2025, le Conseil de sécurité de l’Organisation des Nations Unies (ONU) a adopté la résolution 2803 par laquelle il fait sien le Plan d’ensemble du Président Donald Trump ayant pour objectif de mettre fin au conflit à Gaza. Contrairement à ce qu’on pourrait croire, l’initiative américaine ne date pas du 2ème mandat de l’Administration Trump. Elle a vu le jour durant son premier mandat.  Le Plan entériné par la résolution du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU, surnommé ‘ ...

This Policy Paper analyses the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) through the critical lens of technological colonialism. It argues that the fusion of physical, digital, and biological technologies is not merely a technical phenomenon but a civilizational shift reshaping the foundations of global power. The article traces a historical continuum from previous industrial revolutions, demonstrating how patterns of inequality and extraction persist, now transposed into the digital realm ...

بعد ثمانية عشر سنة على تقديمها إلى مجلس الأمن كمساهمة من المغرب في حل الخلاف الإقليمي حول الصحراء المغربية، حظيت مبادرة الحكم الذاتي بموجب القرار2797 المؤرخ في 31 أكتوبر2025 بتزكية مجلس الأمن بأغلبية مريحة كأساس وحيد للتفاوض من أجل حل نهائي لهذا الخلاف. وكان رد فعل المغرب على اعتماد هذا القرار سريعا، إذ مباشرة بعد التصويت، وبينما كانت وفود الدول الأعضاء في المجلس تشرح تصويتها على القرار، وجه جلالة الملك خطابا إلى الأمة مرحبا بهذا التغيير التاريخي الذي يشكل "مرحلة مفصلية ونقطة تحول ح ...

The meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, was more than an exercise in diplomacy. It was an emblematic performance of a world in transformation. Behind the formalities, the cameras, and the studied smiles lay an unspoken recognition: the world is no longer unipolar. The era of American supremacy, sustained for decades through its economic reach, military presence, and ideological projection, is giving way to a more diffuse, multipolar reality. ...

The election of Javier Milei as President of Argentina in 2023 created high expectations: how likely was he to succeed in transforming Argentina as he had promised? Would he be able to enforce his economic policies despite his limited backing in the legislature? Could he maintain the strong popular support that brought him to power in the face of the harsh reforms he was committed to implementing? And ultimately, would he be able to neutralize Peronism in Argentina and launch a new ...

Almost a year after President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the United States displays little of the isolationism many of the country’s international partners anticipated, and many of Trump’s supporters desired. From economic sanctions to military intervention, Trump is proving to be something of a foreign policy president, although with distinctly unilateral instincts. This approach is particularly evident in Washington’s current approach to the ‘South’, including Latin ...

L’affaire du Sahara a connu, ce vendredi 31 octobre 2025, un virage stratégique. Par sa résolution 2797, le Conseil de sécurité a clairement consacré l’Initiative marocaine d’autonomie comme étant la base exclusive de négociations pour l’arrivée à une solution définitive au conflit régional qui plombe la région depuis un demi-siècle. Ainsi que l’a souligné Sa Majesté le Roi dans son discours adressé à la nation immédiatement après l’adoption de la nouvelle résolution, « nous vi ...

This Opinon was originally published in French on telos-eu.com As Morocco celebrates the fiftieth anniversary of the Green March, which gave it control of the Western Sahara in November 1975, the UN Security Council has made a spectacular correction to its position on the issue. Its resolution of October 31, 2025 emphasizes the solution of internal autonomy for the Western Sahara within Morocco, relegating the idea of an independence referendum to second place. Autonomy rather ...

La résolution 2797, adoptée le 31 octobre 2025 par une large majorité du Conseil de sécurité, constitue un tournant historique dans le dossier du Sahara. Pour la première fois, l’autonomie sous souveraineté marocaine est considérée comme unique base de négociation pour une solution politique réaliste marquée du sceau du compromis , écartant irrévocablement l’option de référendum et mettant fin aux ambiguïtés entretenues depuis des décennies. En réaction à l’adoption de la résol ...

Ce rapport a été initialement publié sur fondapol.org Depuis 50 ans, le conflit du Sahara occidental est pendant devant les instances internationales.En 1975, le Maroc a fait acte de souveraineté sur ce vaste territoire désertique, jusque-là colonie espagnole. Il estime qu’il lui avait antérieurement appartenu. Ce point de vue est contesté par le Front Polisario, mouvement indépendantiste soutenu par l’Algérie. La communauté internationale a adopté une attitude ambivalente, ret ...

Le Président ghanéen Dramani Mahama fait du pragmatisme le principe directeur de la politique étrangère de son pays pour répondre à un double impératif : redressement économique et endiguement de la menace terroriste. Deux recalibrages en constituent les preuves empiriques. D’abord, la convergence stratégique avec le Maroc : le 7 janvier 2025, Accra suspend sa reconnaissance de la pseudo-« rasd » et endosse le Plan d’autonomie marocain, ouvrant la porte à de nouvelles pistes de coop ...

Ghana’s President John Dramani Mahama has made pragmatism the orienting principle of his foreign policy to reach a dual goal: (a) economic recovery, and (b) containment of the terrorist threat. Two recalibrations illustrate this shift. First, strategic convergence with Morocco: on January 7, 2025, Accra suspended recognition of the so-called ‘Sahraoui Arabe Democratic Republic’ and endorsed Morocco’s Autonomy Plan for the Moroccan Sahara. This opened the door to expanded economic co ...

Now that a cease-fire is in place, it is time to consider Gaza’s reconstruction. This will be the fifth such effort in less than twenty years. Lessons from the previous four indicate that rebuilding houses, bridges, and roads is relatively straightforward. Far more challenging is building a thriving Gazan economy and society—one where young people live with dignity, have jobs, feel heard and included in their communities, and are hopeful about their future. Achieving this requires n ...

L’« Accord sur Gaza » d’octobre 2025, imposé aux parties au conflit -Israël et le Hamas-  par le président américain Donald Trump, et le « Sommet de la paix de Sharm el-Sheikh », ont permis d’ouvrir une perspective pour un arrêt des hostilités et l’acheminement de l’aide humanitaire vers la bande de Gaza, en attendant la négociation de la seconde phase devant consolider le cessez-le-feu et préparer la paix dans la Région. Si l’implication du Hamas dans les négociations rel ...

This paper analyzes the impact of the BRICS+ Summit of July 2025 on the evolution of the bloc, as well as on the relationship between the bloc and the U.S. under President Trump. It also tackles the aftermath of the summit and in particular the impact it had in the souring of Brazil-U.S. relations. Before the paper analyzes the impact of BRICS+ on Morocco, it goes over the consequences of the events that resulted from the summit on the Brazilian political sphere.  ...

Le panorama géopolitique mondial expose, certes, cruellement les vulnérabilités structurelles de l'Afrique (dépendance alimentaire, financière, exposition aux chocs), mais il ouvre aussi une fenêtre d'opportunités sans précédent depuis les indépendances. Le continent n'est plus seulement un objet de la géopolitique mondiale ; il tend de plus en plus à jouer un rôle d’acteur qui dispose d'une marge de manœuvre accrue. Le défi pour le continent et ses Éta ...

On 1 October, China marked the 76th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Few nations in modern history have experienced such a remarkable transformation in so short a time. In just over seven decades, China has ascended from poverty and fragmentation to become a technological, economic, and diplomatic powerhouse of global significance. This trajectory—driven by strategic planning, institutional stability, and a steadfast belief in the state as a catalyst for develop ...

Prochainement disponible sur Livremoi & Amazon. Les Dialogues Stratégiques, fruit d'une collaboration entre le HEC Center for Geopolitics et le Policy Center for the New South, constituent une plateforme d'échanges biannuelle dédiée à l'analyse des grandes tendances mondiales et des problématiques régionalesqui lient l'Europe et l'Afrique. Réunissant praticiens, décideurs, universitaires et représentants desmédias, cet espace de réflexion permet de décoder les transfor ...

Depuis plus de trente ans, les relations entre le Maroc et l’Union européenne (UE) se caractérisent par un équilibre entre pragmatisme politique, ouverture économique et convergence stratégique. Le processus de Barcelone de 1995 a marqué le début d’une coopération euro-méditerranéenne renforcée, consolidée par l’Accord du Statut avancé en 2008 et le Partenariat euro-marocain de prospérité partagée, faisant de l’UE le principal partenaire économique du Royaume. Dans un contexte régio ...

Cementing the Position of a Global PowerNo doubt the news was unwelcome for Pentagon planners in Washington, who had long pressured the Venezuelan government. In August, the United States placed a $50 million bounty on the Venezuelan leader’s arrest. By late September 2025, multiple Chinese vessels, including a naval hospital ship, were detected in the Caribbean. These ships appear to be part of a broader Chinese diplomatic and military strategy in Latin America, heightening tension ...

A direct threatIs history repeating itself? That was the question circulating at NATO headquarters in Brussels as officials observed a joint Russian-Belarusian strategic exercise held in Belarus last September, Ukraine’s neighbor and Moscow’s staunch ally. ...

Almost a year after the December 2024 fall of former President Bashar al-Assad, Syrians on October 5 took part in their first parliamentary vote—a symbolic milestone for a nation emerging from years of war and authoritarian rule. Rather than a direct popular election, the process followed an indirect model: about 7,000 members of regional electoral colleges cast ballots to choose two-thirds of the 210 seats in parliament. The remaining one-third will be appointed directly by Preside ...

Conventional wisdom holds that the United States has undergone massive deindustrialization in recent decades, with the country's manufacturing sector supposedly withering as it lost ground to China. This narrative has fueled debates about industrial policy, economic nationalism, and the reshoring of manufacturing production. But what if this story is only partially true? What if, instead of disappearing, American industry simply changed its address?  ...

The author of this opinion, Leonardo Párraga, is a 2016 alumnus of the Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Program. The next chapter of peacebuilding won’t be written only around the negotiating table or in United Nations chambers. Traditional peacebuilding processes have been characterized by exclusion of some of the key stakeholders that can make them more sustainable: women, young people, and local communities. This trend has been seen in recent peace agreements. For example ...

Africa's development depends on the mobilization of catalytic levers capable of accelerating growth momentum, with wider benefits for the African people. The digital, energy and demographic transitions are all major challenges, but at the same time they present the continent with new opportunities for transformation. In this context, Atlantic Africa appears to be a strategic and promising area, thanks to the richness and diversity of its natural resources, its geographical position ...

Sudan’s Heritage: Looting as a Weapon of WarSudan, in addition to the political and humanitarian crisis that has shaken the country for years, is now facing a worrying degradation of its cultural heritage, both tangible and intangible, particularly in areas where the fighting is most intense. Cultural heritage has become another victim of this war: the destruction of archaeological sites and the looting of museums fuel the illicit trafficking of cultural property and contribute to r ...

Le Soudan, en plus de la crise politique et humanitaire qui le secoue depuis des années, doit faire face à une dégradation inquiétante de son patrimoine culturel, matériel et immatériel. Particulièrement dans les zones où les combats sont les plus intenses. Le patrimoine culturel soudanais est l’autre victime de cette guerre : la destruction des sites archéologiques et le pillage des musées alimentent le trafic illicite des biens culturels et contribuent aux dynamiques d’instabilité ...

إلى جانب الأزمة السياسية والإنسانية التي تعصف بالسودان منذ سنوات، أضحى التراث الثقافي السوداني ضحية لهذه الحرب حيث شهد تدهوراً مقلقا، لا سيما في المناطق التي تشهد أعنف المعارك ً. فقد أدت عمليات تدمير المواقع الأثرية ونهب المتاحف إلى تغذية شبكات الاتجار غير المشروع بالممتلكات الثقافية، الأمر الذي يزيد من تفاقم ديناميات عدم الاستقرار في المنطقةوتدور رحى الحرب بين الجيش النظامي، أو القوات المسلحة السودانية (SAF) بقيادة عبد الفتاح البرهان، وبين قوات الدعم السريع، (RS ...

This policy paper examines digital colonialism as a defining structural challenge of the twenty-first century and argues for the urgent pursuit of digital sovereignty in the Global South. While digitalization holds immense potential to foster inclusion and bridge development gaps, current dynamics reproduce historical patterns of dependency: data is extracted from Southern populations, routed through infrastructures owned by Northern corporations, processed by algorithms trained on ...

Global economic growth has been more resilient than expected, as the artificial intelligence-led growth seems to be compensating for the negative impacts of trade conflicts. Overstretched asset values and slowing jobs growth may be signaling that the balanced crossing of those two paths will be challenged. ...

The era of relative stability grounded in post-Second World War idealism, and a global compact around the principle of supporting the most vulnerable, is coming to an abrupt close. In its place is hard-nosed realpolitik, raw power, and transactional politics. The current discordant, fractious epoch—despite the sense of foreboding and crises in some quarters—may yet create the space and conditions for much needed honest dialogue on the future of development cooperation. This dialogue ...

This article analyzes the role played by Türkiye as an emerging “middle power”[1], in Africa over the last two decades. It argues that a certain discontinuity can be identified in Türkiye’s foreign policy approach in Africa. The approach has shifted from short-term involvement with African nations to more focused, constructive, vision-oriented partnerships. In addition, Türkiye’s gradual rapprochement with Africa began with a soft-power approach through a humanitarian, cultural, and ...

Il y a presque deux ans, le Burkina Faso, le Mali et le Niger ont quitté la CEDEAO (Communauté économique des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest) - Organisation régionale regroupant quinze pays- pour créer un nouveau groupement d’intégration: l’Alliance des États du Sahel (AES).  Les motivations des trois pays ne sont pas conjoncturelles. Elles reflètent les difficultés de l’Organisation régionale à accompagner les pays en question dans leur quête de sécurité et de développemen ...

Le Processus des États de l’Afrique atlantique (PEAA), lancé par Sa Majesté le Roi Mohammed VI en novembre 2023, ambitionne de transformer la façade atlantique africaine — jusqu’ici morcelée et vulnérable — en un espace géopolitique cohérent, intégré et prospère. L’Initiative s’appuie sur les provinces du Sud marocain comme pont stratégique vers les vingt- trois pays riverains de l’Atlantique, et sur une vision d’ouverture Sud-Sud et euro-africaine.Malgré des disparité ...

Few symbols capture the post-war international order as vividly as the United Nations headquarters in New York. Officially opened in 1952, the building was conceived as both the stage of global governance and the emblem of Allied victory. Yet, nearly eight decades later, it is worth asking whether its location still reflects the true centre of gravity of world affairs. As the 80th Ordinary Session of the United Nations General Assembly approaches, economic transformation, geopolitic ...

L’autrice de cette opinion, Patricia Ahanda, est une alumna du programme Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders 2018. Cette opinion a été publiée initialement sur patriciaahanda.paris Dans un monde marqué par l’émergence d’une instabilité géopolitique globale, par la non-linéarité et l’imprévisibilité croissante des rapports de force, le Maroc s’impose comme un leader pivot du Sud global. Un acteur incontournable capable de relier continents, blocs et cultures dans un mo ...

Le développement de l’Afrique repose sur la mobilisation de leviers catalyseurs capables d’accélérer la dynamique de croissance avec des retombées élargies au bénéfice des populations africaines. Les transitions numérique, énergétique et démographique constituent autant de défis majeurs, mais elles présentent parallèlement de nouvelles opportunités de transformation pour le continent. Dans ce contexte, l’Afrique atlantique apparaît comme un espace stratégique et prometteur, grâce à ...

The October 2025 general elections in Tanzania unfold within a political culture grounded in consensus and institutional continuity. President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s leadership has reopened political space by restoring elite dialogue, easing restrictions on rallies, and facilitating the return of exiled figures. Yet the exclusion of CHADEMA—the principal opposition party—highlights the enduring limits of pluralism. This paper analyzes the Tanzanian electoral process less as a convent ...

The Atlantic Initiative, announced by King Mohammed VI in November 2023 to provide landlocked Sahelian countries with access to the Atlantic Ocean via Moroccan territory, promises to profoundly reshape the bilateral relationship between Rabat and Nouakchott. This research paper examines how this unprecedented project creates new strategic opportunities while raising shared challenges for Morocco and Mauritania. Diplomatically, the rapprochement around the Atlantic Initiative unfolds ...

This Policy Paper analyzes Jacob Zuma’s July 2025 visit to Morocco as a revealing episode in the reconfiguration of South African foreign policy. Far from being mere protocol issue, the event activated multiple registers of mobilization—anti-apartheid legacy, territorial integrity, and diplomatic coherence—while shifting a dossier long confined to elites into the public sphere. Drawing on a corpus of 2,200 posts on X, and 20 South African press articles, the study shows that the con ...

This paper explores the evolving legal, geopolitical, and technical dynamics surrounding the extension of the coastal shelf of Atlantic African states beyond 200 nautical miles under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). As several coastal states pursue rights over seabed areas beyond their exclusive economic zones, the paper highlights the growing strategic importance of these claims for resource access, particularly hydrocarbons and minerals, and maritime b ...

This policy brief analyzes the first 100 days in office of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, which have been marked by an assertive foreign policy, ambitious security reforms, and a shift toward economic pragmatism. Merz has sought to reestablish Germany as a ‘leading middle power’, emphasizing closer European coordination, renewed transatlantic engagement, and unwavering support for Ukraine. However, his approach to the Gaza conflict, characterized by alignment with U.S. positions and rel ...

Ce Policy Paper analyse la visite de Jacob Zuma au Maroc en juillet 2025 comme un épisode révélateur des recompositions de la politique étrangère sud-africaine. Loin d’une simple question de protocole, l’événement a activé des registres de mobilisation multiples — fidélité à l’héritage anti-apartheid, intégrité territoriale, cohérence diplomatique et a déplacé un dossier longtemps confiné aux élites vers l’espace public. À partir d’un corpus de 2 200 publications sur X et de 20 arti ...

This paper argues that the Middle East has become the crucible of twenty-first-century imperial politics, exposing the collapse of legal universality and the resurgence of coercive empire. Through the archetypes of Hammurabi and Nebuchadnezzar, it analyzes how states invoke law rhetorically while practicing domination through siege, spectacle, and exclusion.The United States, China, Türkiye, Israel, Iran, the European Union, and the Gulf monarchies all oscillate between Hammurabian ...

In 2019 - well before the onslaught of COVID-19 and the wars in Europe and the Middle East - the central thesis of a policy paper by this author, analyzing the relationship between Africa and the Caribbean, characterized it as one of missed opportunity due to the lack of consistent, meaningful engagement between the two regions - despite the relationship’s special significance given their shared history. Underinvested: The Caribbean African Relationship (PCNS 2019) chronicled the li ...

L’Initiative Atlantique, annoncée par le Roi Mohammed VI en novembre 2023, visant à offrir aux pays sahéliens enclavés un accès à l’océan Atlantique via le territoire marocain, promet de redessiner en profondeur la relation bilatérale entre Rabat et Nouakchott. Cet article examine comment ce projet inédit crée de nouvelles opportunités stratégiques tout en soulevant des défis partagés pour le Maroc et la Mauritanie. Sur le plan diplomatique, le rapprochement autour de l’Initiative A ...

The author of this opinion, Gabriela Keseberg Dávalos, is a 2013 alumna of the Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Program.On August 17, 2025, Bolivians did what once seemed unthinkable: they voted the Movement for Socialism (MAS) out of power, after almost two decades of dominance. For a country where last-minute surprises are the political norm, this outcome feels extraordinary. But the verdict is clear: MAS, the party that defined Bolivia’s politics for an entire generation, ...

This paper develops a continuous-time optimal control model to analyze the economic effects of the U.S. administration’s newly imposed “reciprocal tariffs,” which are determined by bilateral trade deficits. The model focuses on a small, open developing economy integrated into global value chains and facing limited policy space. We demonstrate how reciprocal tariffs, endogenously linked to the trade balance, affect production, consumption, capital accumulation, and overall welfare. W ...

The Mattei Plan, launched by far-right Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, aims to redefine Italy’s engagement with Africa through a strategic blend of political vision, development cooperation, and economic diplomacy. Framed as a non- predatory alternative to traditional models, the Plan seeks to position Italy as a credible and constructive partner by promoting co-creation with African stakeholders and delivering concrete, results-oriented projects. Central to its approach is t ...

The multilateral, rule-based trading system underpinned by the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been undermined by the unilateral imposition of U.S. tariffs. Crucially, the foundational principle of non-discrimination among WTO members has been abandoned. While many countries have attempted to negotiate with the U.S. to resolve tariff disputes, they have simultaneously sought to deepen trade ties with each other through plurilateral and regi ...

The international monetary system has been dominated by the U.S. dollar since the Second World War. The hegemony of the greenback cut across the end of the dollar exchange standard established by the Bretton Woods Agreement, and came out from the global financial crisis—and the euro crisis—even stronger than before. The euro area and China are taking steps to strengthen the international role of their currencies, but surmounting the inner strength of the dollar-based monetary system ...

This Paper was originally published on springer.comBrazil went from a quite impressive economic performance during much of the twentieth century to a period of mediocre growth from 1980 onwards. This shift has positioned the country as a textbook case of the “middle-income trap”. This paper aims to demonstrate how certain transformations in the international economy since the 1980s—notably the globalization of firms and industries—combined with a set of domestic challenges, disrupte ...

China's ascent to the position of the world's most prominent energy consumer has altered global energy markets and fundamentally reshaped the geopolitics of energy security. As China navigates the complexities of sustaining its economic momentum, ensuring access to reliable, affordable, and diversified energy sources has become an existential imperative, intricately woven into its foreign policy strategy. In parallel, Africa's immense wealth of both conventional and renewable resour ...

An Executive Order issued on July 30 by President Donald Trump hiked United States tariffs on imports from Brazil by 40%, in addition to the 10% established on April 2—the so-called ‘Liberation Day’ when Trump set out ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on countries around the world.The decree came with a long list of exemptions for Brazilian exports. For a number of product lines, the 10% April 2 tariff will continue to apply. These include air transport equipment, orange juice, furniture, fuel, ...

This article assesses the economic performance of the original BRICS economies, relative to the growth and currency appreciation projections presented in the papers that introduced the acronym, prior to the grouping becoming a diplomatic, political, and economic reality. It also discusses the BRICS agenda in the current challenging geopolitical context, in which economic fragmentation tends to raise costs for the global economy and presents considerable obstacles for emerging and de ...

Vingt ans après sa création, le Parlement panafricain demeure un organe institutionnel marginalisé au sein de l’Union africaine. Pensé comme instrument de représentation des peuples africains, il n’a jamais acquis les prérogatives ni les relais lui permettant de jouer un rôle politique important. Ce Policy Paper analyse les raisons de cette impasse à partir de trois angles : la faiblesse institutionnelle et le déficit de légitimité du PAP ; le blocage du Protocole de Malabo, révélat ...

The BRICS+ group of countries met in Rio de Janeiro over the weekend of 6-7 July. The original group – Brazil, Russia, India, China and, soon after, South Africa – emerged as the materialization of a work of fiction. Jim O’Neill, then chief economist at Goldman Sachs, produced a report in 2001 drawing attention to the rise of these countries as emerging regional powers in global economic growth. ...

Cet article a été publié initialement sur lopinion.fr"Afrique/Europe : il faut repolitiser pour mieux coopérer", selon Karim el Aynaoui, président Exécutif Policy Center for the New South ...

Trente ans après l’Accord d’association de 1995, le partenariat entre la Tunisie et l’Union européenne s’épuise, pris au piège d’un logiciel diplomatique obsolète, hérité d’une époque révolue. Conçu comme un levier de convergence normative et de modernisation économique, il repose encore sur des fictions désormais intenables : une Europe généreuse et cohérente, une Tunisie en capacité d’absorber l’acquis communautaire, et un intérêt mutuel qui aurait survécu aux bouleversements géop ...

This Blog was originally published on ettg.eu Europe and North Africa are intensifying cooperation, driven by shared interests in renewable energy deployment, trade and industrialisation. This renewed focus is opening doors for deeper energy partnerships, including on green hydrogen, and offers North African countries new opportunities to expand into European markets. At the same time, it raises concerns about the uneven distribution of benefits and insufficient international f ...

This Paper was originally published on ettg.eu KEY MESSAGES1. Aligning climate and energy priorities for mutual benefit - North Africa’s solar and wind potential could help meet the EU’s decarbonisation and energy security goals. A longterm, equitable partnership integrating green industrialisation, energy market integration and climate resilience can deliver shared economic, environmental and geopolitical gains. 2. Transforming energy partnerships for a just transition - ...

In 2000, The Economist dismissed Africa as the “Hopeless Continent”—a label reflecting a broader system of marginalization rooted in colonial legacy and post-Cold War neglect. This essay offers a realist reappraisal, arguing that Africa’s growing strategic relevance is not the result of benevolence, but of structural necessity.Amid a fracturing global order and the rise of transactional geopolitics under Trump 2.0’s Bessent Doctrine, Africa has become indispensable: rich in critical ...

Bientôt disponible en vente sur Livremoi. Les différentes éditions du Rapport annuel de la géopolitique de l’Afrique, que le Policy Center for the New South publie chaque année, se suivent mais ne se ressemblent pas. Elles ne gardent en commun que leur inscription, dans une même ligne éditoriale, celle qui privilégie l’Afrique en particulier et le Sud en Général. Les différentes éditions se ressemblent en ce sens que leur objet, à toutes, est de permettre à des Africains d ...

This Paper was originally published on cebri.org Within an ever-evolving system of multilateral development banks (MDB) currently reshaped by four structural geo-economic trends, the emergence of new MDBs like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Development Bank (NDB) carries great geopolitical significance. Yet the new MDBs, attuned to institutional and operational realities, have not upended the MDB system. Their relationship with long-e ...

Dans un contexte international en recomposition, et à l’instar des autres membres permanents du Conseil de sécurité des Nations Unies (États-Unis, France, Royaume-Uni), la Chine et la Russie réévaluent leurs positionnements respectifs sur le dossier du Sahara marocain, longtemps relégué à la périphérie de leurs priorités. À travers une lecture croisée des dynamiques historiques, des échanges bilatéraux avec le Maroc et des interactions dans les enceintes multilatérales, notamment à ...

The history of relations between the West and East Asia is deeply rooted in fear, dating back to the 13th century when Mongol hordes swept from Central Asia into the European steppes. This civilizational neurosis took root in the European imagination and has since shaped Western perceptions of the East. The derogatory racial metaphor “Yellow Peril”, which emerged in the late 19th century, was not a new invention but rather a recurring theme invoked whenever politically expedient. It ...

This article was written by an external contributor. The author is not affiliated with the Policy Center for the New South, and the views expressed herein are solely those of the author. The Liberal International Order (LIO), established in the aftermath of WWII, is now facing unprecedented challenges. Though the main proponent of this same Order, the United States under Donald Trump has turned against traditional allies and is actively seeking to undermine the v ...

As the ‘Western Sahara Conflict’, rather a dispute, because in 1975 the Sahara sovereignty was disputed by Morocco, Mauritania and the Polisario, dates back to 1975, so its international legal consideration relates to the Declaration of Principles on Western Sahara by Spain, Morocco and Mauritania (Madrid Accord), concluded in 1975 among Spain, Morocco and Mauritania for decolonizing ‘Western Sahara.’Here, the term Western Sahara is not geopolitically neutral in the context of ...

Ce Policy Paper analyse l’érosion progressive de l’ambition d’influence internationale de l’Afrique du Sud, jadis portée par un capital symbolique exceptionnel issu de sa transition postapartheid. Il montre comment Pretoria, longtemps perçue comme une puissance morale et normative au service de la transformation continentale et multilatérale, fait désormais face à des contraintes structurelles qui fragilisent son rôle sur la scène internationale.À partir d’un cadrage histor ...

This Paper was originally published on geopolitique.eu. In jointly hosting the 2030 World Cup, Spain, Morocco, and Portugal will pave the way for innovative and unprecedented regional cooperation between Europe and Africa. This “small vertical” initiative should be part of a more innovative and larger scale effort aimed at strengthening ties between the two continents in order to build what could be called an “Eastern Atlantic Community” (EAC).At a time when vertical ...

Ce papier a été initialement publié sur legrandcontinent.eu Le long des rives orientales de l’océan Atlantique, une « grande verticale » intégrant l’Europe et l’Afrique pourrait devenir un espace stratégique pour réparer la mondialisation.  ...

Le retour de Trump à la présidence des États-Unis en 2025 accélère l’effondrement de l’ordre international issu de 1945, déjà fragilisé par ses contradictions internes, ses promesses non tenues et son incapacité à intégrer le Sud global. Dans un monde traversé par une polycrise — climatique, énergétique, financière et alimentaire — Trump 2.0 incarne un tournant vers un réalisme assumé, où les alliances sont conditionnelles, les institutions multilatérales instrumentalisées, et les r ...

The late twentieth-century neoliberal experiment, imposed upon Latin America and Africa under the banner of the Washington Consensus, failed both economically and morally. Though it promised prosperity through deregulation, privatisation, and fiscal austerity, it delivered instead economic stagnation, rising inequality, and the systematic dismantling of the instruments of national development. This was not technocratic wisdom, but a project of ideological enforcement that subordinat ...

L’année 2024 a coïncidé avec la célébration du 75e anniversaire de la fondation de la République populaire de Chine, étape clé dans la réalisation des objectifs fixés par le 14e Plan quinquennal. Dans ce contexte, les Deux sessions annuelles 2025 du Parlement chinois – celle de l'Assemblée populaire nationale (APN), organe législatif suprême, et du Comité national de la Conférence consultative politique du peuple chinois (CCPPC), organe consultatif - ont retenu l’attention ...

Global governance is undergoing a profound transformation, marked by growing polarization, the weakening of multilateral institutions, and the rise of informal, flexible frameworks. As great powers drift from multilateral commitments, and instead prioritize transactional or unilateral actions, middle powers are emerging as key actors in shaping the future of global governance. These countries, ranging from Brazil and South Africa to Poland, Türkiye, and South Korea, navigate the in ...

Though the international order has changed greatly over the past decades, the transformation now underway is significantly deeper and more profound. The post-1945 multilateral system—largely constructed under U.S. hegemony and framed by liberal values including open markets, rules-based cooperation, and a commitment to global development—is fragmenting. Over the past decade, a series of systemic shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, rising geopolitical tensions, and the return of ...

Prochainement disponible sur Livremoi.   Les Dialogues Stratégiques, fruit d'une collaboration entre le HEC Center for Geopolitics et le Policy Center for the New South, constituent une plateforme d'échanges biannuelle dédiée à l’analyse des grandes tendances mondiales et des problématiques régionales qui lient l’Europe et l’Afrique. Réunissant praticiens, décideurs, universitaires et représentants des médias, cet espace de réflexion permet de décoder les transformations ...

This Policy Brief explores the potential evolution of the United Nations’ stance on the Moroccan Sahara issue in light of recent diplomatic developments. It builds on the reaffirmed U.S. support for Morocco's proposed Autonomy Plan, which has played a key role in broadening international consensus in favor of a pragmatic resolution. Despite positive signs within the Security Council, the UN-led process remains stalled, largely due to persistent divisions among member states and th ...

The first hundred days of Donald Trump's presidency have again demonstrated his capacity to defy convention and polarize opinion. Far from merely repeating his earlier administration, this new chapter is best understood as part of a long-term repositioning of the United States within a rapidly shifting international system—one where American primacy is no longer assumed but increasingly contested. On the domestic front, Trump's agenda has been marked by political calculation and a ...

The author of this opinion, Danielle Alakija, is a 2024 alumna of the Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Program. Once upon a time—or so the story went—the Global South was cast to the margins of the global development narrative. Assigned a supporting role in someone else’s story, it was exploited for its resources and subdued by the authoritative tone of external narrators. This image, painted in tones of crisis and dependency, continues to echo through textbooks and news cy ...

The author of this opinion, Isabela Carvalho, is a 2018 alumna of the Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Program. In today’s interconnected world, knowledge plays a vital role in driving change and shaping solutions. Yet despite the rise of digital tools and global collaboration, persistent gaps in how knowledge is managed and shared continue to limit the Global South’s ability to fully harness its potential. Strengthening resilient knowledge ecosystems fosters inclusive ...

Ce Policy Brief examine les perspectives d’évolution de la position des Nations Unies sur le dossier du Sahara marocain à la lumière des récentes dynamiques diplomatiques. Il s’appuie sur la réaffirmation du soutien américain au Plan d’autonomie proposé par le Maroc, qui a contribué à élargir un consensus international en faveur d’une solution pragmatique. Malgré des signes positifs au sein du Conseil de sécurité, le processus onusien demeure bloqué, notamment en raison de divisions ...

In his thought-provoking book, The Sahara Conflict and International Law: Reviewing the Legal Debate from an Integrated Perspective, Pr. Matsumoto Shoji embarks on an ambitious project to dissect the Sahara conflict through the lens of international law, regional politics, and global diplomacy. As a seasoned expert in comparative African law and international legal systems, Matsumoto brings a wealth of expertise to an issue that has long been a flashpoint in North African geopolitic ...

L’ouvrage de Matsumoto Shoji, professeur spécialisé en droit africain comparé et en droit international, est une étude approfondie sur la question du Sahara et ses enjeux juridiques, politiques et diplomatiques. S’appuyant sur une analyse rigoureuse des normes du droit international, des accords passés et des dynamiques régionales, l’auteur met en lumière l’importance de la souveraineté marocaine dans un conflit marqué par des interprétations divergentes de concepts tels que l’autod ...

The autonomy proposal put forward by Morocco in April 2007 as the unique basis for settling the dispute over the Moroccan Sahara is gradually gaining international recognition. Although rejected by Algeria and the polisario, the Initiative has enjoyed broad international support since its launch, particularly from the United States and France, who have reaffirmed their support for Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara region. On April 8, 2025, the United States reiterated its positio ...

The International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court play key roles in upholding international law but face criticism over selective enforcement. The ICJ’s reliance on state consent and UN Security Council enforcement often weakens its impact, while the ICC’s jurisdictional limits and selective prosecutions raise concerns about equity. Contrasting global responses to similar rulings reveal geopolitical influences. The study underscores the need for institutional r ...

This Policy Brief explores the evolving role of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in preventing crimes against humanity and in contributing to post-conflict reconstruction. Established to deter atrocities and ensure accountability for the gravest offences, the ICC is a testament to the international community’s aspiration for a rules-based order. Despite structural limitations — from its dependence on state cooperation to jurisdictio ...

La proposition d’autonomie, avancée par le Maroc en avril 2007 comme base de règlement du différend autour du Sahara marocain, s’impose progressivement sur la scène internationale. Bien qu’elle soit rejetée par l’Algérie et le polisario, cette Initiative a bénéficié, depuis son lancement, d’un large soutien international, en particulier de la part des États-Unis et de la France, qui ont réaffirmé leur appui à la souveraineté marocaine sur cette région. Le 8 avril 2025 ...

The United States is at a critical juncture, facing a pivotal dilemma: preserving global leadership in a world it no longer fully controls. While it proclaims its primacy in the liberal international order, its actions tell a different story—one marked by tariffs, reshoring policies, and an open attempt to contain China’s rise. This strategy is driven less by long-term vision than domestic political calculus, underscoring the urgent need for strategic recalibration. ...