Geopolitics

Le panorama géopolitique mondial expose, certes, cruellement les vulnérabilités structurelles de l'Afrique (dépendance alimentaire, financière, exposition aux chocs), mais il ouvre aussi une fenêtre d'opportunités sans précédent depuis les indépendances. Le continent n'est plus seulement un objet de la géopolitique mondiale ; il tend de plus en plus à jouer un rôle d’acteur qui dispose d'une marge de manœuvre accrue. Le défi pour le continent et ses Éta ...

Depuis plus de trente ans, les relations entre le Maroc et l’Union européenne (UE) se caractérisent par un équilibre entre pragmatisme politique, ouverture économique et convergence stratégique. Le processus de Barcelone de 1995 a marqué le début d’une coopération euro-méditerranéenne renforcée, consolidée par l’Accord du Statut avancé en 2008 et le Partenariat euro-marocain de prospérité partagée, faisant de l’UE le principal partenaire économique du Royaume. Dans un contexte régio ...

Prochainement disponible sur Livremoi & Amazon. Les Dialogues Stratégiques, fruit d'une collaboration entre le HEC Center for Geopolitics et le Policy Center for the New South, constituent une plateforme d'échanges biannuelle dédiée à l'analyse des grandes tendances mondiales et des problématiques régionalesqui lient l'Europe et l'Afrique. Réunissant praticiens, décideurs, universitaires et représentants desmédias, cet espace de réflexion permet de décoder les transfor ...

Cementing the Position of a Global PowerNo doubt the news was unwelcome for Pentagon planners in Washington, who had long pressured the Venezuelan government. In August, the United States placed a $50 million bounty on the Venezuelan leader’s arrest. By late September 2025, multiple Chinese vessels, including a naval hospital ship, were detected in the Caribbean. These ships appear to be part of a broader Chinese diplomatic and military strategy in Latin America, heightening tension ...

Almost a year after the December 2024 fall of former President Bashar al-Assad, Syrians on October 5 took part in their first parliamentary vote—a symbolic milestone for a nation emerging from years of war and authoritarian rule. Rather than a direct popular election, the process followed an indirect model: about 7,000 members of regional electoral colleges cast ballots to choose two-thirds of the 210 seats in parliament. The remaining one-third will be appointed directly by Preside ...

Conventional wisdom holds that the United States has undergone massive deindustrialization in recent decades, with the country's manufacturing sector supposedly withering as it lost ground to China. This narrative has fueled debates about industrial policy, economic nationalism, and the reshoring of manufacturing production. But what if this story is only partially true? What if, instead of disappearing, American industry simply changed its address?  ...

Global economic growth has been more resilient than expected, as the artificial intelligence-led growth seems to be compensating for the negative impacts of trade conflicts. Overstretched asset values and slowing jobs growth may be signaling that the balanced crossing of those two paths will be challenged. ...

This article analyzes the role played by Türkiye as an emerging “middle power”[1], in Africa over the last two decades. It argues that a certain discontinuity can be identified in Türkiye’s foreign policy approach in Africa. The approach has shifted from short-term involvement with African nations to more focused, constructive, vision-oriented partnerships. In addition, Türkiye’s gradual rapprochement with Africa began with a soft-power approach through a humanitarian, cultural, and ...

Il y a presque deux ans, le Burkina Faso, le Mali et le Niger ont quitté la CEDEAO (Communauté économique des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest) - Organisation régionale regroupant quinze pays- pour créer un nouveau groupement d’intégration: l’Alliance des États du Sahel (AES).  Les motivations des trois pays ne sont pas conjoncturelles. Elles reflètent les difficultés de l’Organisation régionale à accompagner les pays en question dans leur quête de sécurité et de développemen ...

Le Processus des États de l’Afrique atlantique (PEAA), lancé par Sa Majesté le Roi Mohammed VI en novembre 2023, ambitionne de transformer la façade atlantique africaine — jusqu’ici morcelée et vulnérable — en un espace géopolitique cohérent, intégré et prospère. L’Initiative s’appuie sur les provinces du Sud marocain comme pont stratégique vers les vingt- trois pays riverains de l’Atlantique, et sur une vision d’ouverture Sud-Sud et euro-africaine.Malgré des disparité ...

L’autrice de cette opinion, Patricia Ahanda, est une alumna du programme Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders 2018. Cette opinion a été publiée initialement sur patriciaahanda.paris Dans un monde marqué par l’émergence d’une instabilité géopolitique globale, par la non-linéarité et l’imprévisibilité croissante des rapports de force, le Maroc s’impose comme un leader pivot du Sud global. Un acteur incontournable capable de relier continents, blocs et cultures dans un mo ...

The October 2025 general elections in Tanzania unfold within a political culture grounded in consensus and institutional continuity. President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s leadership has reopened political space by restoring elite dialogue, easing restrictions on rallies, and facilitating the return of exiled figures. Yet the exclusion of CHADEMA—the principal opposition party—highlights the enduring limits of pluralism. This paper analyzes the Tanzanian electoral process less as a convent ...

This article assesses the economic performance of the original BRICS economies, relative to the growth and currency appreciation projections presented in the papers that introduced the acronym, prior to the grouping becoming a diplomatic, political, and economic reality. It also discusses the BRICS agenda in the current challenging geopolitical context, in which economic fragmentation tends to raise costs for the global economy and presents considerable obstacles for emerging and de ...

Cet article a été publié initialement sur lopinion.fr"Afrique/Europe : il faut repolitiser pour mieux coopérer", selon Karim el Aynaoui, président Exécutif Policy Center for the New South ...

In 2000, The Economist dismissed Africa as the “Hopeless Continent”—a label reflecting a broader system of marginalization rooted in colonial legacy and post-Cold War neglect. This essay offers a realist reappraisal, arguing that Africa’s growing strategic relevance is not the result of benevolence, but of structural necessity.Amid a fracturing global order and the rise of transactional geopolitics under Trump 2.0’s Bessent Doctrine, Africa has become indispensable: rich in critical ...

Bientôt disponible en vente sur Livremoi. Les différentes éditions du Rapport annuel de la géopolitique de l’Afrique, que le Policy Center for the New South publie chaque année, se suivent mais ne se ressemblent pas. Elles ne gardent en commun que leur inscription, dans une même ligne éditoriale, celle qui privilégie l’Afrique en particulier et le Sud en Général. Les différentes éditions se ressemblent en ce sens que leur objet, à toutes, est de permettre à des Africains d ...

This Paper was originally published on cebri.org Within an ever-evolving system of multilateral development banks (MDB) currently reshaped by four structural geo-economic trends, the emergence of new MDBs like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Development Bank (NDB) carries great geopolitical significance. Yet the new MDBs, attuned to institutional and operational realities, have not upended the MDB system. Their relationship with long-e ...

The history of relations between the West and East Asia is deeply rooted in fear, dating back to the 13th century when Mongol hordes swept from Central Asia into the European steppes. This civilizational neurosis took root in the European imagination and has since shaped Western perceptions of the East. The derogatory racial metaphor “Yellow Peril”, which emerged in the late 19th century, was not a new invention but rather a recurring theme invoked whenever politically expedient. It ...

As the ‘Western Sahara Conflict’, rather a dispute, because in 1975 the Sahara sovereignty was disputed by Morocco, Mauritania and the Polisario, dates back to 1975, so its international legal consideration relates to the Declaration of Principles on Western Sahara by Spain, Morocco and Mauritania (Madrid Accord), concluded in 1975 among Spain, Morocco and Mauritania for decolonizing ‘Western Sahara.’Here, the term Western Sahara is not geopolitically neutral in the context of ...

Ce Policy Paper analyse l’érosion progressive de l’ambition d’influence internationale de l’Afrique du Sud, jadis portée par un capital symbolique exceptionnel issu de sa transition postapartheid. Il montre comment Pretoria, longtemps perçue comme une puissance morale et normative au service de la transformation continentale et multilatérale, fait désormais face à des contraintes structurelles qui fragilisent son rôle sur la scène internationale.À partir d’un cadrage histor ...

This Paper was originally published on geopolitique.eu. In jointly hosting the 2030 World Cup, Spain, Morocco, and Portugal will pave the way for innovative and unprecedented regional cooperation between Europe and Africa. This “small vertical” initiative should be part of a more innovative and larger scale effort aimed at strengthening ties between the two continents in order to build what could be called an “Eastern Atlantic Community” (EAC).At a time when vertical ...

Ce papier a été initialement publié sur legrandcontinent.eu Le long des rives orientales de l’océan Atlantique, une « grande verticale » intégrant l’Europe et l’Afrique pourrait devenir un espace stratégique pour réparer la mondialisation.  ...

Le retour de Trump à la présidence des États-Unis en 2025 accélère l’effondrement de l’ordre international issu de 1945, déjà fragilisé par ses contradictions internes, ses promesses non tenues et son incapacité à intégrer le Sud global. Dans un monde traversé par une polycrise — climatique, énergétique, financière et alimentaire — Trump 2.0 incarne un tournant vers un réalisme assumé, où les alliances sont conditionnelles, les institutions multilatérales instrumentalisées, et les r ...

Prochainement disponible sur Livremoi.   Les Dialogues Stratégiques, fruit d'une collaboration entre le HEC Center for Geopolitics et le Policy Center for the New South, constituent une plateforme d'échanges biannuelle dédiée à l’analyse des grandes tendances mondiales et des problématiques régionales qui lient l’Europe et l’Afrique. Réunissant praticiens, décideurs, universitaires et représentants des médias, cet espace de réflexion permet de décoder les transformations ...

The first hundred days of Donald Trump's presidency have again demonstrated his capacity to defy convention and polarize opinion. Far from merely repeating his earlier administration, this new chapter is best understood as part of a long-term repositioning of the United States within a rapidly shifting international system—one where American primacy is no longer assumed but increasingly contested. On the domestic front, Trump's agenda has been marked by political calculation and a ...

In his thought-provoking book, The Sahara Conflict and International Law: Reviewing the Legal Debate from an Integrated Perspective, Pr. Matsumoto Shoji embarks on an ambitious project to dissect the Sahara conflict through the lens of international law, regional politics, and global diplomacy. As a seasoned expert in comparative African law and international legal systems, Matsumoto brings a wealth of expertise to an issue that has long been a flashpoint in North African geopolitic ...

L’ouvrage de Matsumoto Shoji, professeur spécialisé en droit africain comparé et en droit international, est une étude approfondie sur la question du Sahara et ses enjeux juridiques, politiques et diplomatiques. S’appuyant sur une analyse rigoureuse des normes du droit international, des accords passés et des dynamiques régionales, l’auteur met en lumière l’importance de la souveraineté marocaine dans un conflit marqué par des interprétations divergentes de concepts tels que l’autod ...

The autonomy proposal put forward by Morocco in April 2007 as the unique basis for settling the dispute over the Moroccan Sahara is gradually gaining international recognition. Although rejected by Algeria and the polisario, the Initiative has enjoyed broad international support since its launch, particularly from the United States and France, who have reaffirmed their support for Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara region. On April 8, 2025, the United States reiterated its positio ...

The United States is at a critical juncture, facing a pivotal dilemma: preserving global leadership in a world it no longer fully controls. While it proclaims its primacy in the liberal international order, its actions tell a different story—one marked by tariffs, reshoring policies, and an open attempt to contain China’s rise. This strategy is driven less by long-term vision than domestic political calculus, underscoring the urgent need for strategic recalibration. ...

La proposition d’autonomie, avancée par le Maroc en avril 2007 comme base de règlement du différend autour du Sahara marocain, s’impose progressivement sur la scène internationale. Bien qu’elle soit rejetée par l’Algérie et le polisario, cette Initiative a bénéficié, depuis son lancement, d’un large soutien international, en particulier de la part des États-Unis et de la France, qui ont réaffirmé leur appui à la souveraineté marocaine sur cette région. Le 8 avril 2025 ...

This Policy Brief analyzes the strategic significance of the reaffirmation by the United States, on April 8, 2025, of its support for Morocco’s sovereignty over the Moroccan Sahara and of Morocco’s autonomy plan for the territory. This position, which has been maintained under different U.S. administrations, confirms the appropriateness of the Moroccan approach based on compromise, regional stability, and economic integration. It reinforces the isolation of the Polisario Front, whos ...

Le présent Policy Brief analyse la portée stratégique de la réaffirmation, le 8 avril 2025, du soutien américain à la souveraineté du Maroc sur son Sahara et à son plan d’autonomie. Ce positionnement, maintenu sous différentes Administrations américaines, consacre la pertinence de l’approche marocaine fondée sur le compromis, la stabilité régionale et l’intégration économique. Il renforce la dynamique d’isolement du Front Polisario, dont le discours figé sur l’indépendance ...

The Russia–Ukraine war, while primarily perceived as a European security crisis, has triggered deep structural shocks globally, disproportionately affecting the developing world—the “New South.” This essay explores how historical legacies, global economic dependencies, and shifting geoeconomic paradigms have converged through the war to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. It critically examines the war’s impact through four interc ...

The rapprochement between the U.S. and Russia since the election of President Trump for a second term, and more significantly, since his inauguration, has intrigued U.S. traditional allies as well as many politicians in the U.S. The argument presented here explains the causes of that rapprochement and places it within a global context that witnesses the establishment of a new world order, multipolar, in which the U.S. is a key player but not the dominant player it used to be in the ...

Le présent ouvrage reprend les contributions présentées à l’occasion de la première édition de la Conférence-débat sur les enjeux stratégiques des espaces maritimes de l’Afrique atlantique organisée par le Policy Center for the New South le 16 avril 2024. Une Conférence-débat qui procède d’une double logique : continuité et originalité. Une logique de continuité, d’abord, parce que l’Atlantique a toujours constitué pour le Policy Center, depuis la création du think ...

Geopolitical tensions and competing interests define the Eastern Mediterranean's energy landscape. Vast natural gas reserves offer economic potential, but overlapping maritime claims and ongoing conflicts—particularly the Israel-Lebanon war and the Gaza conflict—threaten existing agreements and future projects. The European Union’s efforts to reduce dependence on Russian gas initially positioned the region as a key supplier, but escalating instability now puts these ambitions at ris ...

According to the 2024 Secretary-General Report on Sahara (2024 Report), the biggest challenge may be the absence of progress in reaching a political solution to the Sahara Issue. Why has this conflict continued for half a century? In the 2024 Report, the Secretary-General has not attempted to give a stinging report on the resolution failure. The outline of the 2024 Report is largely as usual. Generally, to resolve a conflict, the proper parties should first be exactly identified. O ...

Over the past 50 years, international law relevant to the Sahara Issue has evolved significantly. Yet, even recent developments, such as a decision by the EU court and a proposal by the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy to partition the Saharan provinces, have not adequately accounted for these advancements. Actions by a state that may not have been scrutinized in 1975 could now face condemnation under contemporary legal standards. Notably, the right to self-determination must not ...

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is at a critical juncture, facing an intricate polycrisis defined by interlinked challenges including energy insecurity, water scarcity, migration, conflict, and socio-political fragmentation. These crises are not isolated; their interconnectedness amplifies their impact, creating a destabilizing feedback loop that hinders sustainable development and peacebuilding efforts. This paper explores the concept of polycrisis through the lens o ...

2024 marked the largest election year in history, with millions of people across the world going to the polls to elect their representatives and leaders. However, in the Global North, Donald Trump’s decisive election victory in the United States threatens to undermine multilateral governance structures that are already under strain. In the Global South, emerging economies from the expanded BRICS group and beyond strive to speak with a single voice, and their ...

ربما شكّلت نتائج الانتخابات الأمريكية مفاجأةً للعديد من المراقبين، حيث أظهرت العديد من الدروس المهمة حول التحولات الجديدة المرتبطة بإدارة الرأي العام وقدرة هذا الأخير على التعبير عن توجهاته بطرق قد تكون مدهشة، خاصة للمتخصصين في مجال ما يُطلَق عليه "علم اتجاهات الرأي العام" "، الذي يتسم بأساليب معقدة من الحيل والخدع والتضليل . وقد شكّل دونالد ترامب تحديًا كبيرًا أمام وسائل الإعلام، خصوصًا تلك التي تُحسب على التيار الديمقراطي والتي سعت جاهدة شيطنته وإقصاءه من المشهد الإعلامي. لكن، رغم ...

In September 2024, scientists at the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service  reported that summer 2024 was the hottest on record globally, and the previous twelve months posted a average global temperature that was a record 1.64 degrees Celsius (2.95 degrees Fahrenheit) above the average during the pre-industrial period, 1850-1900. This was triggered by a combination of a warmer El Niño cycle and the effects of human-caused warming. While it will take more years of ...

This essay examines the implications of the new Trump administration’s ‘America First’ approach for multilateralism, particularly in the context of the Bretton Woods institutions and the World Trade Organization (WTO), and its consequences for the New South. The first Trump administration’s selective multilateralism, marked by the prioritization of U.S. interests over global cooperation, contributed to a more fragmented global order. This was seen in the administration’s withdrawal ...

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is characterised by its diversity in political systems, economic conditions, and social structures. It is home to a mix of high-income countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as low-income and conflict-affected states like Yemen and Iraq. This diversity creates a complex environment for think tanks. Political instability in some areas, coupled with economic uncertainty, presents a challenging landsca ...

Prochainement disponible sur Livremoi et Amazon.   Les Dialogues Stratégiques, fruit d'une collaboration entre le HEC Center for Geopolitics et le Policy Center for the New South, constituent une plateforme d'échanges biannuelle dédiée à l'analyse des grandes tendances mondiales et des problématiques régionales qui lient l'Europe et l'Afrique. Réunissant praticiens, décideurs, universitaires et représentants des médias, cet espace de réflexion permet de décoder les trans ...

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the role and impact of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), formed in April 2022, in navigating the complexities of Yemen's ongoing civil conflict. The PLC was created to unite various anti-Houthi factions under a single governance framework, with the support of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and to steer Yemen toward peace and stability. However, the PLC has faced numerous obstacles, including internal divisions, resistance from ...

The road to decarbonizing the planet runs through the energy transition, which includes the shift from fossil-fueled cars to renewable energy vehicles. This automotive transition is unfolding as a true revolution in the industry. The evolution toward electric and hybrid vehicles has come in tandem with the ascent of Chinese producers. In the current context of geopolitical and technological rivalries, the automotive transition has been marked by an intense trade war, with implicati ...

In an era marked by shifting global dynamics, Africa and the Middle East are experiencing a profound transition from traditional geopolitics to a more nuanced geoeconomic framework. This evolution reflects the growing recognition that economic interests, rather than mere political allegiances, are driving international relations in these regions. The rise of emerging powers, particularly China and other Asian nations, has challenged the long-standing dominance of Western economies, ...

La dissolution de l’Assemblée nationale par le président Emmanuel Macron, le 9 juin 2024, a marqué un moment décisif dans l’histoire politique contemporaine de la France. Cette décision, prise dans un contexte de forte fragmentation politique, a des implications profondes pour la Ve République et ses fondements constitutionnels. Alors que la Constitution de 1958, avait été conçue pour garantir la stabilité d’un régime présidentiel fort, taillé par Michel Debré à la taille du général ...

In today’s world, sports have taken on a role traditionally held by religion, offering a deep sense of community, purpose, and identity to people. Its impact has been magnified by globalisation, digital technology, social media, and the rise of streaming platforms. These elements create a sense of immediacy and connection that transcends geographical boundaries. Consequently, sports have attained an unparalleled level of relevance and influence, capturing the hearts and minds of peo ...

This paper was originally published in idos-research.de   The early 1960s can be regarded as the “Big Bang” for international cooperation and development policy. The US was pushing an international system to support developing countries, and in 1961, it established the US Agency for International Development (USAID). The same year saw the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) set up its Development Assistance Committee (DAC). Germany’s post-WWII e ...

D’édition en édition, le Rapport annuel de la Géopolitique de l’Afrique du Policy Center for the New South s’affirme en tant que référence pour le suivi et la compréhension des dynamiques du continent. Cette septième édition présente une Afrique montrant des motifs de satisfaction, dans certains domaines, et des raisons de préoccupation, dans d’autres. L'année 2023 a été marquée par des avancées notables, comme la tenue d'élections démocratiques réussies dans plusieurs pays. Cepend ...

Bientôt disponible en vente au Maroc sur Livremoi.   Les Dialogues Stratégiques, une collaboration entre HEC Center for Geopolitics et le Policy Center for the New South, représentent une plateforme d’analyse et d’échange biannuelle réunissant des experts, des praticiens, des décideurs politiques, ainsi que le monde universitaire et les médias au service d’une réflexion critique et approfondie sur les tendances politiques mondiales et sur une problématique d’intérêt ...

Le pluralisme médiatique reste une question ouverte que ravive l'actualité géopolitique internationale. Des initiatives réglementaires telles que l'European Media Freedom Act, en Europe, ou des procédures judiciaires, aux États-Unis, interpellant la responsabilité des plateformes en ligne, témoignent de la reconnaissance croissante des enjeux. Elles soulignent également la nécessité de réfléchir aux mécanismes qui favorisent ou entravent le pluralisme médiatique, surt ...

Le contexte de tensions géopolitiques accrues et rémanentes que connaît le monde depuis quelques années, marqué par la dégradation des relations entre les États-Unis et la Chine, l'escalade des tensions à Taïwan, et le conflit entre la Russie et l'Ukraine, a engendré des répercussions majeures sur les politiques d'approvisionnement en minerais stratégiques et critiques de plusieurs États. Les récentes crises, notamment la pandémie de COVID-19 et le conflit en Ukraine, ...

The heightened and persistent geopolitical tensions of recent years, marked by the deterioration of U.S.-China relations, the escalation of tensions in Taiwan, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, have had significant repercussions on the strategic and critical minerals supply policies of several states. Recent crises, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, have exposed the vulnerability of global supply chains to geopolitical shocks and disruptions, prom ...

Camila Crescimbeni is a 2023 alumna of Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders program. Learn more about her here. Following a fruitful and broad debate at the 2023 Atlantic Dialogues, Alec Russell, foreign editor of the Financial Times, asked a deep and globally-relevant question: Can democracy survive 2024? With 70 states having elections this year, it is a fundamental question. After some decades of continuous expansion of democracy worldwide, as shown by the V-Dem Elector ...

The strategic significance of the southern Atlantic is growing, driven by two underlying dynamics. Firstly, we have seen the geostrategic capabilities of the southern Atlantic states and their inhabitants strengthen and the value of their strategic assets rise, despite lingering internal vulnerabilities and frequent instability, often caused by the northern Atlantic and, on occasion, Eurasia. Secondly, the way in which the southern Atlantic states are pursuing and exploiting the pot ...

In realist terms, the Southern Atlantic represents a natural partner for the powers of Eurasia—now grouped together in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)— especially for those that are, or could be, BRICS members. Pan-Atlantic cooperation is inherently of strategic interest to Eurasian countries because of its potential implications for the ultimate size of the BRICS Plus, for the degree of implication from its members in the Southern Atlantic, and for BRICS strategic goals ...

“According to realism, states exist within an anarchic international system in which they are ultimately dependent on their own capabilities, or power, to further their national interests. The most important national interest is the survival of the state, including its people, political system, and territorial integrity. Other major interests for realists include the preservation of a nation’s culture and economy. Realists contend that, as long as the world is divided into nation-st ...

في 6 أكتوبر 1973 تلقت السلطات الإسرائيلية تحذيرات عن احتمال اندلاع حرب على حدودها مع الدول العربية. هذا التحذير أكد المعلومات التي تم استلامها قبل بضعة أيام، ولكن أصحاب القرار السياسي والاستخبارات في اسرائيل لم يأخذوا الأمر على محمل الجد. حيث تعرضت إسرائيل لهجوم مفاجئ وعرف جيشها حالة من الهلع. وكانت الكارثة. خمسون عاما بعد ذلك، تقريبًا في نفس اليوم، فوجئت إسرائيل بهجوم جديد. في صباح 7 أكتوبر 2023، عبر مئات الرجال مسلحين الحاجز بين إسرائيل وقطاع غزة، انتشروا في أكثر من 20 مكانًا، قت ...

Multiple shocks faced by the global economy over the past three years have apparently shaken the conventional wisdom on gains from economic integration, and have sparked widespread calls for protectionist and nationalist policies. Is there already evidence of some ‘deglobalization’, or do the factors that underlie globalization remain strong enough despite the shocks? So far, there are no signs of an overall reversal in the long-term trend of greater global trade integration. Howev ...

On October 6, 1973, the Israeli authorities were warned of the imminent outbreak of war on their borders with the Arab states. This warning confirmed information received a few days previously, which Israeli political decision-makers and iintelligence services had not taken seriously. Israel was taken by surprise and its army panicked. It was a debacle. Fifty years later, almost to the day, Israel was once again taken by surprise. On the morning of October 7, 2023, hundreds of armed ...

The Atlantic area and its Afro-Atlantic seaboard are suffering the consequences of the global situation. We are witnessing a complex geopolitical game involving different strategies that have various processes, tactics, and objectives. The current situation reveals a paradoxical dynamic, which involves the Euro-Atlantic powers, extra- regional powers (China and Russia), and all the Afro-Atlantic countries. How is the power game organized in the Atlantic area? How does Africa9s Atlan ...

Le 6 octobre 1973, les autorités israéliennes ont été averties de l’éclatement imminent d’une guerre à leurs frontières avec les États arabes. Cet avertissement confirmait les informations reçues quelques jours auparavant, mais que les décideurs politiques et le Renseignement israéliens n’avaient pas pris au sérieux. Israël est pris par surprise et son armée est en panique. C’est la débâcle. Cinquante ans plus tard, quasiment jour pour jour, l’État hébreux est enco ...

The global economic environment has changed as the U.S.—and to a less confrontational degree, the European Union—have clearly established a context of technological rivalry with China. Hindering China’s progress in the sophistication of semiconductor production has become a centerpiece of current U.S. foreign policy. While the U.S. is clearly winning the semiconductor war, the picture is different when it comes to clean-energy technology. Both technology wars overlap with access to ...

Like many countries of the Global South, South Africa espouses an independent, non-aligned approach to foreign policy. This approach has been criticized during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war as a superficial excuse to be ‘soft’ on Russia. Deeper reflection and analysis however, points to a finely calibrated multi-alignment strategy, which allows South Africa to secure its national interests while carefully balancing relations with the United States (U.S.), European Union (EU) and ot ...

Bientôt disponible en vente sur Livremoi.   En présentant ces textes, publiés dans les plateformes du Policy Center for the New South, pour partie, et dans divers supports, pour l’autre, on découvre à leur lecture des sujets absents des sciences sociales nationales. Le premier défi que doit surmonter le chercheur marocain qui s’intéresse aux affaires militaires et de sécurité (AMS) est la sous-conceptualisation du domaine en raison du désintérêt des universités et ...

Le Mozambique fait face depuis 2017 à une insurrection menée dans la province de Cabo Delgado, au nord-est du pays, par un groupe militant islamiste dénommé Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamaa (ASWJ) – qui aurait fait allégeance à l’État islamique (EI) et qui est aussi connu sous le nom de Al Shabab, sans lien avec le groupe éponyme en Somalie. Les problèmes sociaux et économiques de cette région – qui concentre la plus grande partie des 18 % de musulmans que compte le pays, à majorité chrétienne ...

Cette 6ème édition du rapport géopolitique de l’Afrique s’inscrit dans la même ligne éditoriale que ses précédentes. Elle se veut une plateforme où des auteurs et analystes africains racontent l’Afrique géopolitique de 2022 en débordant parfois sur les événements saillants du début de 2023. Ce moment, d’environ une année et demie, ne peut échapper à la guerre en Ukraine comme toile de fond du monde. Même lorsque les auteurs ne s’y réfèrent pas explicitement, cett ...

Kim Ju-ae, supposed daughter of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, was introduced by her father for the first time to the world and 26.1 million citizens of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) on November 19, 2022. Her first public appearance was unusual: at the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) costing up to $10 million (Los Angeles Times, November 4, 2022). Unlike a DPRK spy satellite launched on May 30, 2023, which broke up in midair before reach ...

Le 22-24 août 2023, à Johannesburg, en Afrique du Sud, se réunit le 15ème sommet des BRICS. Ce sommet est particulièrement intéressant pour deux raisons : il est, d’abord, le premier sommet en présentiel depuis la pandémie de la Covid, et en pleine guerre russo-ukrainienne qui perdure, et il l’est, ensuite, du fait de son ordre du jour consacré en partie à l’adhésion de nouveaux pays et à l’instauration d’une éventuelle monnaie commune. L’objet de cette étude lui est consacré. Rappe ...

Twenty-Four Hours June 23-24, 2023. Over those days, Russia, the sanctioned world power, was not destabilized by the nuclear enemy in Washington, but by one man, who made his wealth serving food to school children and soldiers. A caterer who attempted a revolution. A bald man, who apparently wore wigs during his days off, as the Russian secret police claimed to have discovered when they searched his home in St Petersburg. The photos of the wig-wearing Yevgeny Prigozhin were shown o ...

The security landscape in the Sahel region has undergone significant changes in recent years. From the emergence of Russia as an actor in the region to the persistent issue of trafficking, and the challenges of political transitions in countries including Chad and Sudan, the Sahel faces complex and interconnected security challenges. This insight summarizes our biannual Strategic Dialogues, focusing on the new security landscape in the Sahel, its regional developments, and its impli ...

A tragedy of historic proportions The war is gruesome and may not end for months or years. Not ending with the white flag of surrender, but total depletion and exhaustion, men and missiles, tanks, and terror. The battlefield is hell, as it is in all wars. A nightmare and human folly. “We are learning in Ukraine how to fight”, admitted the former President of Lithuania, Dalia Grybauskalte, “and we are learning how to use our NATO equipment. It is a teaching battle”. Yes, this politi ...

Le propos semblera tautologique à beaucoup, mais les géographies ne sont pas - seulement - des œuvres de la Création, ou le produit du hasard et des accidents de la vie de la Terre. Elles sont, presque plus fondamentalement, pourrait-on dire, le produit du regard actif de l’Homme, qui, porté sur elles, les façonne, par le travail, et par la projection de représentations mentales dans la matière. Cette capacité de l’Homme à (se) projeter (par) son regard dans l’espace visibilise les ...

Les Dialogues Stratégiques, une collaboration entre HEC Center for Geopolitics et Policy Center for the New South, représentent une plateforme d'analyse et d'échange biannuelle réunissant des experts, des praticiens, des décideurs politiques, ainsi que le monde universitaire et les médias au service d'une réflexion critique et approfondie sur les tendances politiques mondiales et sur une problématique d'intérêt régional, d'importance commune à la fois pour l'Europe et l'Afrique. C ...

La première bipolarisation a appartenu au XX° siècle et opposé États-Unis et URSS. Avec la guerre froide, elle était l'expression de la rivalité entre deux systèmes antagonistes. La seconde est née de la montée de la Chine populaire qui est entrée en compétition avec les États-Unis. Une compétition au départ économique et technologique, devenue aussi, au fil du temps, culturelle et stratégique, dans un monde interdépendant et digitalisé, mais également segmenté, complexe et incertai ...

After decades of globalization and integration, the world seems to be fragmenting again, epitomized best, perhaps, by the return of geopolitical crisis, protectionism, unilateral sanctions, treaty withdrawals, and even military and economic coercion. Designed to foster cooperation among states, the multilateral system put in place after the Second World War grew quickly to encompass economic development, international security, global health, human rights, and environmental issues. ...

This policy paper examines India’s growing engagement in North Africa, focusing on five countries: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. Despite lacking a distinct regional policy for North Africa, India has amplified its bilateral engagement with these countries, underpinned by a steadfast commitment to the principle of South-South cooperation. Through its strategic moves in North Africa, India has established a powerful southern-west axis for its foreign policy that stretch ...

The member countries of the International Monetary Fund decided in 2021 to create a new tranche of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) for a sum equivalent to $650 billion. Under the Fund's usual rules, Africa as a whole would receive only a small share of this ($33 billion). Consequently, a number of advanced countries have offered to give Africa a share of their new SDR allocations, so that Africa will receive a total of $100 billion. This Policy Brief provides an update on this topic. ...

Les pays membres du FMI (Fonds monétaire international) ont décidé en 2021 de créer une nouvelle tranche de DTS pour une somme équivalente à 650 milliards de dollars. En appliquant les règles habituelles du Fonds, l’Afrique prise globalement n’en recevrait qu’une faible part (33 milliards). C’est pourquoi un certain nombre de pays avancés ont proposé de reverser à l’Afrique une part de leur nouvelle allocation de DTS, afin que le continent africain reçoive au total 100 mi ...

En partenariat avec le Policy Center for the New South (PCNS), Africa Center est fier de présenter un rapport conjoint sur l’influence de la Russie en Afrique, une perspective sécuritaire, à l’occasion du premier anniversaire de la guerre en Ukraine. L’Afrique est apparue comme un acteur majeur de ce conflit lorsque le 3 mars 2022 , dix-sept Etats africains se sont abstenus lors du vote de la résolution de l’Assemblée générale des Nations Unies condamnant l’invasion russe en Ukrain ...

In recent years, personalist rule has spread around the world. As personalist rule gets upgraded and adopted across regions and regime-type, including in democracies, Africa and the Middle East are looking less exceptional, and mainstream academic theories are being challenged. The 2011 uprisings and their aftermath have destabilized social science thinking about Africa and the Middle East, creating an opportunity for fruitful cross-regional dialogue around concepts like personal ru ...

The big menacing balloon, about 60 meters in height and an estimated couple thousand pounds, was not carrying extraterrestrials or some exquisite new covid viruses from Wahun, China. A spying monster, as Washington's Secretary of State, Antony Blinken insisted, deployed by Beijing to "attempt to surveil very sensitive military sites" (CNN, February 19, 2023). The balloon, large as roughly three buses, went over several military installations," in some cases loitering", claimed Bli ...

In a recent telephone conversation, Russian President Vladimir Putin officially invited Assimi Goïta, the military chief of the transition in Mali, to take part in the second Russia-Africa summit to be held in Saint Petersburg. This summit is scheduled for July 2023, according to Mikhail Bogdanov, the special representative of the president of Russia to the Middle East and Africa and deputy foreign minister. Russia is openly optimistic that several African leaders will attend the pl ...

تعتبر ملحمة الفريق الوطني المغربي خلال البطولة العالمية لكرة القدم بالدوحة 2022، حدثا رياضيا كبيرا، لكنه حدث يتجاوز الإطار الرياضي. يتعلق الأمر، كذلك، بحدث يهم المغرب طبعا، ولكنه يتجاوزه. لأن صداه كان عالميا. ولأنه كان مصدر فرح وبهجة عارمة وكذا اعتزاز كل الشعوب المغاربية والعربية والإفريقية، وبصفة عامة شعوب الجنوب، التي تملكت منجز فريقنا الوطني إلى الحد الذي اعتبرت أنه أصبح يمثلها. بالتالي، فهو فريق مغربي، أصبح بفضل منجزه، فريقا مغاربيا وعربيا وإفريقيا، وأصبح كأنه ينتمي إلى الجنوب ...