MENA

The renewed instability in the Middle East has exposed Africa's continued vulnerability to external energy shocks. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies transit, have once again demonstrated that African fuel security remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments beyond the continent. While many African economies have traditionally relied on refined petroleum imports from Gulf ...

The Resolution adopted by an overwhelming majority of elected European officials in Strasbourg on June 10, 2021, on "the violation of the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child and the exploitation of minors by the authorities in the migration crisis in Ceuta" (2021/2747/RSP), could not fail to leave its mark.Decoding the ResolutionThe Resolution shocked Moroccans to such an extent that it was quickly set aside at the time, as if there were a wish to forget it as fast as possible. ...

Cuando estalla una crisis, esta da lugar a la activación de reflejos para su gestión y la limitación de sus efectos. Comienzan, entonces, los análisis y las suposiciones sobre las disfunciones, los incumplimientos y las fallas que la ocasionaron. En algunos casos, la teoría de la conspiración se inmiscuye y las hipótesis buscan a los autores que provocaron la crisis, sus designios y sus objetivos. Sin embargo, la teoría de la gestión de crisis nos enseña que una crisis surge según ...

When a crisis erupts, it sets crisis-management reflexes in motion and prompts efforts to contain its effects. Analysts then begin looking for the malfunctions, oversights, and failures that caused it. In some cases, conspiracy theories creep in, and speculation turns to who engineered the crisis, and to what end. Crisis-management theory teaches us, however, that a crisis unfolds under conditions that favor its emergence. Crises take shape in an environment where latent vulnerabil ...

Lorsqu’une crise éclate, elle donne lieu à l’actionnement des réflexes pour sa gestion et la limitation de ses effets. Commencent, alors, les analyses et les suppositions sur les dysfonctionnements, les manquements et les défaillances ayant entrainé ladite crise. Dans certains cas, la théorie du complot s’ingère et les hypothèses cherchent les auteurs ayant provoqué la crise, leurs desseins et leurs buts.Cependant, la théorie de gestion des crises nous apprend qu’une crise inte ...

The Mecca Agreement: A First Step Towards a New Regional Security Architecture? On 7 August, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the Mecca Agreement, a trilateral defense pact aimed at strengthening collective security and defense cooperation between the three countries. At its core lies a collective defense commitment under which an attack on one member is considered an attack on all three. While many details concerning its practical implementation remain unclear, the agreeme ...

THE END OF AN ERAThe US-Israeli war on Iran, a 'little excursion' envisaged to be over within a matter of weeks, has entered its fourth month. Shock waves ripple across the globe. This war is just one in a series of recent crises which have fractured the international community, making the decades of the 2020's among the most disruptive in recent history. Each crisis compounds the deleterious effects of those which came before. The war in Iran is no exception. It abruptly stalled ec ...

With America's 250th anniversary, there will be many analyses of the country's history from domestic and international perspectives. But the meaning of the American story should also be assessed in key regional settings, from Asia to Latin America, and in transatlantic terms. In this vein, it is worth exploring the U.S. engagement in and with the Mediterranean world, one of the first places of U.S. international activism, and a setting where diverse aspects of U.S. foreign policy ha ...

The close relationship between energy and geopolitics is well established. The same holds true for several armed conflicts. In recent years, however, the conflict most closely intertwined with energy has been the 2026 Iran War, which began on February 28. A ceasefire has been in effect since April 8, and a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed by Iran and the United States on June 17. Nevertheless, as demonstrated by Iran's attacks on commercial vessels and recent U.S. strike ...

Les relations, très étroites, entre l’énergie et la géopolitique sont bien connues. Cela vaut aussi pour plusieurs conflits armés. Mais, dans la période récente, le conflit le plus lié à l’énergie est la guerre d’Iran de 2026, qui a débuté le 28 février. Un cessez-le-feu est en vigueur depuis le 8 avril et un protocole d’accord a été signé le 17 juin par l’Iran et les États-Unis. Mais, comme le montrent les attaques de l’Iran contre des navires et les frappes américaines de ces dern ...

Cet essai analyse la guerre Iran–États-Unis–Israël de 2026 comme un révélateur de la transformation profonde de l’ordre international. À travers le prisme du droit de la mer, du détroit d’Ormuz, des alliances fragmentées, des câbles sous-marins et des flux énergétiques, il montre que le pouvoir mondial se déplace progressivement du contrôle des territoires vers la maîtrise des infrastructures de circulation. Loin de disparaître, la mondialisation entre dans une phase de connectivité ...

University campuses across the MENA region consume significant amounts of energy but lack the tools to anticipate and optimize their demand. Current monitoring systems are descriptive and reactive: they record what has already happened but provide no forward-looking intelligence. Meanwhile, commercial building management systems remain financially out of reach for most institutions in developing countries, with costs exceeding $10,000 per building.A validated framework combining art ...

Este Policy Paper también ha sido publicado en inglés y francés por Le Grand Continent La economía marroquí constituye un caso ilustrativo entre las economías de renta media, en un contexto marcado por una creciente fragmentación del entorno internacional, un crecimiento mundial anémico y una desaceleración de la convergencia. Desde 2022, su trayectoria se caracteriza por una relativa solidez, con un crecimiento superior a la media de las economías de la misma categoría. Superi ...

Ce Policy Paper a également été publiée en anglais et en espagnol par Le Grand Continent Le Maroc offre un exemple éclairant parmi les pays à revenu intermédiaire, dans un contexte marqué par une fragmentation croissante de l’environnement international, une croissance mondiale atone et un ralentissement de la convergence. Depuis 2022, sa trajectoire se distingue par une certaine robustesse, avec un rythme d’expansion supérieur à celui des autres économies de même catégorie. Dé ...

This Policy Paper has also been published in French and Spanish by Le Grand Continent Morocco offers a compelling example of how a middle-income economy can navigate a more fragmented global environment, characterized by weak growth and slower convergence. Since 2022, economic activity has remained relatively strong, with growth exceeding that of many comparable economies. Non-agricultural growth has averaged 4.4% since 2022, around 1.3 percentage points above its historical av ...

The inventory is worrisomely low The US military has fired off more than 1000 Tomahawk cruise missiles, roughly ten times the number it currently buys each year. The Pentagon used more than 1200 Patriot interceptor missiles, "more than three million dollars a pop", and more than 1000 precision strike, ground based missiles, "leaving the inventories worrisomely low." US commanders were forced to ration interceptors by letting unguided or less destructive missiles hit empty or no ...

At the end of May 2026, Israeli airstrikes targeted the surroundings of Beaufort Castle (Qalaat al-Chaqif), near Nabatiyeh, before the Israeli army announced that it had captured the site. This development raises a fundamental question: why does a medieval fortified hilltop retain military value in the age of satellites, drones, and cruise missiles?This Policy Brief argues that Beaufort's significance is geographical before it is ideological or technological. Overlooking the Litani ...

Fin mai 2026, des frappes israéliennes ont visé les abords du château de Beaufort (Qalaat al-Chaqif), près de Nabatiyeh, avant que l'armée israélienne n'en annonce la prise. Ce fait soulève une question centrale : pourquoi une hauteur fortifiée au Moyen Âge conserve-t-elle une valeur militaire à l'ère des satellites, des drones et des missiles de croisière ?Le présent Policy Brief tente de démontrer que la valeur de Beaufort est géographique avant d'être idéologique ou technologique ...

This article draws in part on perspectives shared by members of the Rihla Initiative for Green Economic Growth, whose regional insights helped inform the sections on how the costs of the war are being felt across the Global South. The war on Iran and in the Gulf has made it impossible to treat the Strait of Hormuz as a regional issue. The disruption around the Strait has moved through the world economy in concrete ways, from higher fuel bills and pressure on food and fertilizer ...

This essay argues that the current debate about the future of the international monetary system is not really about Gulf currencies, oil pricing, or de-dollarization in the narrow technical sense. It is about something deeper and more important: whether institutional trust can survive when geopolitical certainty is eroding.The Gulf monarchies—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman—increasingly exist in a world where the United States no longer looks ...

The global energy system has entered a period of acute structural stress following the strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran in late February 2026, and the subsequent disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency, the resulting shock marks the most severe disruption to global energy markets since the 1970s oil crises, with systemic characteristics comparable to the combined effects of those crises and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine ...

Le monde du travail est engagé dans un processus de mutation sans précédent. La quatrième révolution industrielle, portée par l’intelligence artificielle (IA) et la robotisation, a été le point de commencement d’une ère nouvelle où les repères économiques et sociaux se redéfinissent à une vitesse inédite. Ces technologies suscitent un engouement légitime et offrent des perspectives prometteuses, mais requièrent une vigilance accrue face aux incertitudes qui les entourent.Bien que, à ...

Driven by its mission to reflect on and analyze the major geopolitical, economic, and societal transformations shaping the contemporary world, and with a view to contributing to knowledge-sharing and disseminating the main outcomes of its research program, the Policy Center for the New South regularly publishes collective volumes addressing issues of particular importance to Morocco, Africa, and the broader Global/New South. In this spirit, the Center has recently released two volum ...

This paper, the fourth in a research series on services-led growth in the Global South, examines Egypt’s potential for growth and economic transformation through the integration of services into Global Value Chains (GVCs). It employs a new taxonomy that classifies services into Knowledge Services (KS), Enabling Services (ES), and Local Services (LS) and applies OECD 2025 Trade in Value-Added (TiVA), Trade in Employment (TiM), and input-output databases to benchmark Egypt against Mor ...

This paper is the third in a series of country and comparative studies that together comprise a research program on services as drivers of economic growth and structural transformation in the Global South. The paper analyzes the pattern of Tunisia's services-led economic growth from 2012- 2022 using a specialized three-category framework: knowledge services (KS), enabling services (ES), and local services (LS). Using data from the OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA), Trade in Employmen ...

This Paper was originally published on mitvim.org.il This paper argues that the reconstruction of Gaza will depend not only on the amount of funding mobilized, but on how financing is structured, governed, and anchored within a broader politi`cal context. In a setting shaped by movement restrictions and weak institutions, financial design is not neutral but shapes priorities, distributes power, and determines what can be implemented on the ground. The paper examines the key cha ...

This paper is the second in a series examining services-led development and global value chain (GVC) integration in the Global South. It applies a three-category analytical framework covering knowledge services (ICT and professional business services), enabling services (transport, logistics, and finance), and local services (retail, hospitality, health, and personal services), to OECD Trade in Value Added indicators. The paper thus  ...

Cet oped a été publié initialement dans la revue afkar/ideas 77 (IEMed).  La politique étrangère du Maroc traverse une transition structurelle, sous l’effet de la polycrise mondiale, de la diversification de ses partenariats et de l’affirmation de nouveaux choix stratégiques. La centralité accordée aux notions de « hub », de « plateforme »ou de « corridor » traduit un glissement sémantique et fonctionnel dans le narratif national, accordant une priorité majeure aux considé ...

This paper was published as a book chapter in “The Economic Potential of Islamic Countries, Part B: Sustainability, Governance, Energy and Digital Transformation,” released by Emerald Publishing. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed significant deficiencies within social protection systems worldwide, especially in Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries. This underscores the urgent need to fortify these social protection schemes to ensure resilience in the face of crises (Sa ...

This report was originally published on the website of the Middle East Institute ( mei.edu) The following study discusses the role of Lebanon’s gold reserves in the establishment of a currency board and evaluates four policy options: a true currency board, constrained central bank reform, full dollarization, and a unified managed float. Gold reserves are relevant under all four. The conclusion is consistent across them: no monetary framework, however carefully designed and howe ...

We are now in the fifth week since the U.S. airstrike that killed top leaders of the Iranian regime, initiating a war involving the United States and Israel against the country. More than a month of mutual bombardments between Iran and Israel has ensued, extending to other Persian Gulf nations, U.S. military installations—and even Cyprus. From a global perspective, the impact has stemmed primarily from disruptions to regional production of goods and the blockade of the Strait of Hor ...

While acknowledging the centrality of security tensions and potential conflict in the Gulf, this essay intentionally sets aside a detailed treatment of military and hard-power dynamics, concentrating instead on the geoeconomic logics of capital, infrastructure, energy, and connectivity, through which Gulf states now articulate power in a fragmented world order.It examines the emergence of a new tripartite or three-pillar power configuration in the Gulf, arguing that Saudi Arabi ...

Historically, manufacturing has served as the primary pathway to economic development, offering strong scale economies, learning-by-doing effects, and the capacity to generate the foreign exchange necessary to import capital goods and technology. However, advances in robotization and artificial intelligence (AI) are fundamentally undermining manufacturing’s traditional role, making it increasingly skill- and capital-intensive while limiting its ability to absorb labor. Thi ...

By mapping Iraq’s economic structure in detail, the Multiregional Social Accounting Matrix (MRSAM) sheds light on regional interdependencies and distributional dynamics, offering a critical foundation for evidence-based policy design. Key MessagesIraq is dependent on oil, but this dependence is felt unevenly. In 2013, oil accounted for nearly half of GDP, over 90% of exports, and almost all fiscal revenues, but less than 2% of jobs; benefits from oil were concentrated in Basra ...

Le 27 janvier 2026, le gouvernement espagnol a adopté par décret royal une mesure de régularisation extraordinaire visant les personnes en situation administrative irrégulière ou engagées dans une procédure de protection internationale. Le choix du décret royal permet une mise en œuvre rapide de la mesure, sans passage par un débat parlementaire, dans un contexte politique fortement polarisé sur les questions migratoires.La régularisation concerne les personnes pouvant justifier d’u ...

On January 27, 2026, the Spanish government adopted a Royal Decree for the extraordinary regularization of persons in an irregular administrative situation or involved in an international protection procedure. The choice of a royal decree allows for the rapid implementation of the measure, without the need for parliamentary debate, in a political context that is highly polarized on migration issues.Regularization applies to people who can prove their presence on Spanish territory be ...

Introduction: COP30 as a Test of Reality, Not AmbitionCOP30 in Belém was never going to be a breakthrough. In a world marked by fiscal exhaustion, geopolitical rivalry, and eroding trust in multilateralism, expecting transformational climate cooperation bordered on denial. The choice of the Amazon as host carried symbolic weight, but symbolism does not override power, interests, or institutional capacity.The outcome of COP30 confirms a deeper truth: the global climate regime has ent ...

This Paper was originally published on revues.armand-colin.comL’écart entre les sexes en matière de réussite éducative demeure une préoccupation majeure au Maroc. Cette étude analyse les disparités de genre en lecture et en mathématiques aux niveaux national, urbain et rural, en exploitant des données individuelles issues de l’évaluation PIRLS 2021 (7 017 élèves) et de TIMSS 2019 (13 536 élèves), toutes deux menées auprès d’élèves de 4e année du primaire. En appliquant la méthode de ...

This Paper was originally published on cairn.infoL’insertion professionnelle des jeunes, et particulièrement des diplômés de l’enseignement supérieur, constitue un enjeu majeur pour le développement économique et la cohésion sociale de toute nation. Au Maroc, cette question revêt une acuité particulière et s’attache à un paradoxe persistant : malgré une démocratisation et une progression notable de l’accès à l’enseignement supérieur au cours des deux dernières décennies, le tau ...

The return of President Donald Trump to the White House at the start of 2025 was expected to signal an American retreat from international engagement, especially in regions of traditional security interest, such as southern Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. To the surprise of many observers around the Mediterranean, and perhaps to the dismay of some in the Trump administration’s ideological orbit, this has not happened. If anything, the second half of 2025 has seen a high d ...

I recently participated in a discussion between Israelis and Arabs, some living in the Middle East, some living abroad[1]. The discussion topic was ‘The Two State Solution’. This article presents my personal takeaways from the discussion. It does not try to describe the details, and other participants may have different takeaways.I joined the discussion thinking that the two-state solution was dead. Most of the other participants felt the same way—all very pessimistic. But I left fe ...

An unusual gesture indeed—the dictator, more often than not a recluse, withdrawn behind his fortress and protected by 1.2 million armed soldiers, finally admitted what had long been seen on the battlefield in Ukraine and by spy satellites far above. North Korean soldiers—possibly 12,000 of them—are fighting on front lines alongside Russian troops, and they are falling or being wounded; some 4,000 men so far, by current estimates.  ...

This Paper was originally published on transatlantic.org The contemporary maritime domain is increasingly recognized as a geopolitical and economic space, but also as an environment intertwined with human, social, ecological, and governance systems ashore. The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR 2024) report argues that maritime security has evolved from a narrow naval and state-centered concern into a multidimensional issue embedded in global human s ...

On November 17, 2025, the United Nations (UN) Security Council adopted Resolution 2803, endorsing President Donald Trump's Comprehensive Plan to end the conflict in Gaza. Contrary to popular belief, the American initiative does not date from the Trump Administration's 2nd term. It was born during his first term.The plan endorsed by the UN Security Council resolution, dubbed the ''Deal of the Century'', is in fact the heir to the initial plan, which bore the name ''Peace to Prosperit ...

The adoption of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2803 on November 17, 2025, endorsing the “Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict,” is a step in the right direction, but it must be accompanied by the implementation of a Gaza development and post-conflict reconstruction program. Paragraph 6 of Resolution 2803 “calls upon the World Bank and other financial institutions to facilitate and provide financial resources to support the reconstruction and development of Ga ...

Le 17 novembre 2025, le Conseil de sécurité de l’Organisation des Nations Unies (ONU) a adopté la résolution 2803 par laquelle il fait sien le Plan d’ensemble du Président Donald Trump ayant pour objectif de mettre fin au conflit à Gaza. Contrairement à ce qu’on pourrait croire, l’initiative américaine ne date pas du 2ème mandat de l’Administration Trump. Elle a vu le jour durant son premier mandat.  Le Plan entériné par la résolution du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU, surnommé ‘ ...

Cette tribune a été initialement publiée sur telos-eu.comSi un domaine est supposé devoir échapper à la « démocratie d’opinion », c’est bien la politique étrangère, surtout dans la France de la Ve République. Elle se doit d’être articulée autour d’intérêts à long terme et de calculs savants, sans reculer devant la raison d’Etat. L’opinion des Français à son propos est rarement scrutée.Elle se révèle plus construite qu’on ne croit. Telle est la leçon du sondage Toluna-Louis ...

Now that a cease-fire is in place, it is time to consider Gaza’s reconstruction. This will be the fifth such effort in less than twenty years. Lessons from the previous four indicate that rebuilding houses, bridges, and roads is relatively straightforward. Far more challenging is building a thriving Gazan economy and society—one where young people live with dignity, have jobs, feel heard and included in their communities, and are hopeful about their future. Achieving this requires n ...

L’« Accord sur Gaza » d’octobre 2025, imposé aux parties au conflit -Israël et le Hamas-  par le président américain Donald Trump, et le « Sommet de la paix de Sharm el-Sheikh », ont permis d’ouvrir une perspective pour un arrêt des hostilités et l’acheminement de l’aide humanitaire vers la bande de Gaza, en attendant la négociation de la seconde phase devant consolider le cessez-le-feu et préparer la paix dans la Région. Si l’implication du Hamas dans les négociations rel ...

The "Gaza Agreement" of October 2025, imposed on the parties to the conflict -Israel and Hamas- by US President Donald Trump, and the "Sharm el-Sheikh Peace Summit", have opened up the prospect of a halt to hostilities and the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, pending the negotiation of the second phase to consolidate the ceasefire and pave the way for peace in the Region.While Hamas' involvement in the negotiations to free the hostages and end the war gave it visibili ...

Almost a year after the December 2024 fall of former President Bashar al-Assad, Syrians on October 5 took part in their first parliamentary vote—a symbolic milestone for a nation emerging from years of war and authoritarian rule. Rather than a direct popular election, the process followed an indirect model: about 7,000 members of regional electoral colleges cast ballots to choose two-thirds of the 210 seats in parliament. The remaining one-third will be appointed directly by Preside ...

This paper argues that the Middle East has become the crucible of twenty-first-century imperial politics, exposing the collapse of legal universality and the resurgence of coercive empire. Through the archetypes of Hammurabi and Nebuchadnezzar, it analyzes how states invoke law rhetorically while practicing domination through siege, spectacle, and exclusion.The United States, China, Türkiye, Israel, Iran, the European Union, and the Gulf monarchies all oscillate between Hammurabian ...

This paper was originally published on tandfonline.comYouth’s life paths have become increasingly challenging, especially for those classified as ‘Not in Education, Employment, or Training’ (NEET), who comprise 31.2% of North Africa’s youth population. This paper contributes to the growing discourse on the NEET phenomenon by exploring its structural and psychosocial dimensions in North Africa, with a specific focus on gender. Using a rich micro-level dataset of 7,815 individuals age ...

This Paper was originally published on ilo.org A guide by the Mainstreaming Employment into Trade and Investment in the Southern Mediterranean (METI) Programme to advise policymakers on how to develop and implement trade, investment and employment.The PRG is a strategic framework designed to align trade and investment policies with employment goals in the Southern Mediterranean. The guide promotes practical solutions and supports policies that foster economic growth, empow ...

This paper analyses the stabilization experience in the MENA region, focusing on Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Jordan over the past century. It seeks to answer the question: To what extent have these countries succeeded in achieving resilience to shocks and stresses? Key policy elements included significant fiscal adjustments—varying in scale across countries—and exchange rate developments supported by monetary policies aimed at combating inflationary pressures. The outcomes involved ...

The impacts of climate change are increasingly manifesting through severe and multifaceted loss and damage, particularly across vulnerable regions such as the Mediterranean. These impacts extend beyond environmental degradation, contributing to forced displacement, food insecurity, political instability, and the erosion of human rights and dignity. Furthermore, they reinforce structural inequalities between the Global North and South, thereby challenging global principles of climate ...

Syria’s post-conflict transition, marked by the fall of the Assad regime and the appointment of interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will be a critical opportunity for renewal while confronting significant challenges. The country must navigate a complex landscape of political fragmentation, economic hardship, and security risks. This policy brief explores Syria’s prospects for reconstruction and long-term stability by assessing recent political reforms, economic recovery strategies, a ...

MENA faces a severe water crisis, with 12 of the world’s 17 most water-stressed countries. Climate change, population growth, inefficient water management, and weak governance drive this challenge. Water production, treatment, and distribution require high energy inputs, while energy generation depends on water for cooling and refining. The region must integrate renewable energy, especially solar power, into water solutions like desalination. Inaction could shrink GDP by up to 14% ...

يستكشف هذا العرض الحاجة الملحة إلى إحداث تحول في النموذج المعتمد حاليّا في عملية تقديم المساعدات الإنسانية، في سياق حالات النزاع وما بعد النزاع، في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا. ويدعو هذا العرض إلى تبني مقاربة ذات "بعد تنموي للمساعدات الإنسانية"، تجمع بين الإغاثة الفورية والأهداف التنموية على المدى الطويل. كما يدعو هذا المقال، من خلال تركيزه على محدودية المساعدات الإنسانية التقليدية، لا سيما في سياق الأزمات الطويلة، مثل: العراق، اليمن، لبنان وغزة، لضرورة تبني آليات تمو ...

Depuis 1956, l’économie égyptienne est en crise. Durant la période entre 1956 et 2024, elle a connu douze dévaluations et huit crises majeures de sa balance des paiements. Avec un déficit récurrent de sa balance courante, le pays est exposé au plus grand des risques : le risque souverain. Ce qui est une première faiblesse. Mais ce pays, qui a toujours réussi à s’épargner ce risque, témoigne aussi de certaines forces, ce qui constitue sa première force. De ce constat est ...