Security & Defense

Le panorama géopolitique mondial expose, certes, cruellement les vulnérabilités structurelles de l'Afrique (dépendance alimentaire, financière, exposition aux chocs), mais il ouvre aussi une fenêtre d'opportunités sans précédent depuis les indépendances. Le continent n'est plus seulement un objet de la géopolitique mondiale ; il tend de plus en plus à jouer un rôle d’acteur qui dispose d'une marge de manœuvre accrue. Le défi pour le continent et ses Éta ...

Prochainement disponible sur Livremoi & Amazon. Les Dialogues Stratégiques, fruit d'une collaboration entre le HEC Center for Geopolitics et le Policy Center for the New South, constituent une plateforme d'échanges biannuelle dédiée à l'analyse des grandes tendances mondiales et des problématiques régionalesqui lient l'Europe et l'Afrique. Réunissant praticiens, décideurs, universitaires et représentants desmédias, cet espace de réflexion permet de décoder les transfor ...

تعيش منطقة الساحل مرحلة غير مسبوقة من تصاعد العنف السياسي والإرهاب، إذ أصبحت منذ 2025 مسؤولة عن أكثر من نصف الوفيات المرتبطة بالإرهاب عالميًا. هذا التحول يعكس فشل الدول في استعادة ثقة المواطنين، وانهيار المؤسسات الأمنية، وتراجع الوجود الدولي، ما أفسح المجال لتوسع الجماعات المسلحة مثل “نصرة الإسلام والمسلمين” و”تنظيم الدولة في الصحراء الكبرى”. جاءت الانقلابات المتتالية في مالي وبوركينا فاسو والنيجر كنتيجة لأزمات داخلية بنيوية عمّقت هشاشة الحكمتشهد المنطقة تفاوتًا في أنماط العنف؛ فبور ...

Cementing the Position of a Global PowerNo doubt the news was unwelcome for Pentagon planners in Washington, who had long pressured the Venezuelan government. In August, the United States placed a $50 million bounty on the Venezuelan leader’s arrest. By late September 2025, multiple Chinese vessels, including a naval hospital ship, were detected in the Caribbean. These ships appear to be part of a broader Chinese diplomatic and military strategy in Latin America, heightening tension ...

Sudan’s Heritage: Looting as a Weapon of WarSudan, in addition to the political and humanitarian crisis that has shaken the country for years, is now facing a worrying degradation of its cultural heritage, both tangible and intangible, particularly in areas where the fighting is most intense. Cultural heritage has become another victim of this war: the destruction of archaeological sites and the looting of museums fuel the illicit trafficking of cultural property and contribute to r ...

Le Soudan, en plus de la crise politique et humanitaire qui le secoue depuis des années, doit faire face à une dégradation inquiétante de son patrimoine culturel, matériel et immatériel. Particulièrement dans les zones où les combats sont les plus intenses. Le patrimoine culturel soudanais est l’autre victime de cette guerre : la destruction des sites archéologiques et le pillage des musées alimentent le trafic illicite des biens culturels et contribuent aux dynamiques d’instabilité ...

إلى جانب الأزمة السياسية والإنسانية التي تعصف بالسودان منذ سنوات، أضحى التراث الثقافي السوداني ضحية لهذه الحرب حيث شهد تدهوراً مقلقا، لا سيما في المناطق التي تشهد أعنف المعارك ً. فقد أدت عمليات تدمير المواقع الأثرية ونهب المتاحف إلى تغذية شبكات الاتجار غير المشروع بالممتلكات الثقافية، الأمر الذي يزيد من تفاقم ديناميات عدم الاستقرار في المنطقةوتدور رحى الحرب بين الجيش النظامي، أو القوات المسلحة السودانية (SAF) بقيادة عبد الفتاح البرهان، وبين قوات الدعم السريع، (RS ...

Bientôt disponible sur Livremoi. Ce livre n’est pas un énième essai sur les Fake news. Il refuse les raccourcis moralisants, les solutions toutes faites ou les anathèmes technophobes. Ce que propose ici l’auteur, c’est une cartographie rigoureuse et plurielle d’un désordre informationnel devenu structurel — non pas un simple accident de parcours numérique, mais un révélateur des tensions démocratiques, des fractures institutionnelles et sociétales ainsi que des reconfi ...

The convergence of armed group drone warfare and cartel expansion in the Sahel is a global problem with direct consequences for the United States. Far from being a peripheral conflict, instability in the Sahel directly affects American safety, security, and prosperity. For U.S. safety, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)’s rapid shift from crude drone experiments to battlefield strikes—combined with cartel drone attacks and Ukraine-trained operatives—means tactics tested abr ...

The October 2025 general elections in Tanzania unfold within a political culture grounded in consensus and institutional continuity. President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s leadership has reopened political space by restoring elite dialogue, easing restrictions on rallies, and facilitating the return of exiled figures. Yet the exclusion of CHADEMA—the principal opposition party—highlights the enduring limits of pluralism. This paper analyzes the Tanzanian electoral process less as a convent ...

The Atlantic Initiative, announced by King Mohammed VI in November 2023 to provide landlocked Sahelian countries with access to the Atlantic Ocean via Moroccan territory, promises to profoundly reshape the bilateral relationship between Rabat and Nouakchott. This research paper examines how this unprecedented project creates new strategic opportunities while raising shared challenges for Morocco and Mauritania. Diplomatically, the rapprochement around the Atlantic Initiative unfolds ...

This policy brief analyzes the first 100 days in office of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, which have been marked by an assertive foreign policy, ambitious security reforms, and a shift toward economic pragmatism. Merz has sought to reestablish Germany as a ‘leading middle power’, emphasizing closer European coordination, renewed transatlantic engagement, and unwavering support for Ukraine. However, his approach to the Gaza conflict, characterized by alignment with U.S. positions and rel ...

L’Initiative Atlantique, annoncée par le Roi Mohammed VI en novembre 2023, visant à offrir aux pays sahéliens enclavés un accès à l’océan Atlantique via le territoire marocain, promet de redessiner en profondeur la relation bilatérale entre Rabat et Nouakchott. Cet article examine comment ce projet inédit crée de nouvelles opportunités stratégiques tout en soulevant des défis partagés pour le Maroc et la Mauritanie. Sur le plan diplomatique, le rapprochement autour de l’Initiative A ...

Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), alongside the Front de Libération de l’Azawad (FLA), has pioneered drone warfare in the Sahel–evolving from its first armed strike in September 2023 to over a dozen coordinated operations by June 2025. JNIM’s drone-enabled attacks–spanning kamikaze strikes, ISR- guided assaults, and visual propaganda–now target Mali, Burkina Faso, and Togo. It is the only known armed group in Africa–and one of the few globally–to conduct sustained, opera ...

While global attention has been focused on the Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea, Somali pirates have seized the opportunity to escalate their own attacks and violence along these strategic waterways. The threat is increasing dramatically due to an emerging network of allies between Al-Shabaab, the Houthis, and Somali pirates, as well as overlapping national and international factors. The first successful Somali piracy incident since 2017 took place in December 2023, a month ...

Bientôt disponible en vente sur Livremoi. Les différentes éditions du Rapport annuel de la géopolitique de l’Afrique, que le Policy Center for the New South publie chaque année, se suivent mais ne se ressemblent pas. Elles ne gardent en commun que leur inscription, dans une même ligne éditoriale, celle qui privilégie l’Afrique en particulier et le Sud en Général. Les différentes éditions se ressemblent en ce sens que leur objet, à toutes, est de permettre à des Africains d ...

This study draws on academic and gray literature to identify the dynamics that facilitate the emergence and proliferation of armed groups and increase vulnerabilities to violent extremism (VE). Given the growing concerns about the spread of VE to northern Benin and the rising incidents of violence, it is crucial to address these underlying factors in order to bolster community cohesion and resilience to violent conflict-particularly against recruitment and influence by violent extre ...

L’espoir d’une paix durable dans la région des Grands Lacs de l’Afrique centrale est-il enfin permis ? Depuis le début des années 1990, les conflits armés dans les deux provinces du Kivu et l’Ituri à l’est de la République démocratique du Congo (RDC) se cristallisent dans des formes d’une rare violence. Pour sortir de cette crise récurrente, un accord de non-agression entre la RD Congo et son voisin, le Rwanda, accusé d’interférence, constitue un préalable. Mais il n’est ...

Syria’s post-conflict transition, marked by the fall of the Assad regime and the appointment of interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will be a critical opportunity for renewal while confronting significant challenges. The country must navigate a complex landscape of political fragmentation, economic hardship, and security risks. This policy brief explores Syria’s prospects for reconstruction and long-term stability by assessing recent political reforms, economic recovery strategies, a ...

The Russia–Ukraine war, while primarily perceived as a European security crisis, has triggered deep structural shocks globally, disproportionately affecting the developing world—the “New South.” This essay explores how historical legacies, global economic dependencies, and shifting geoeconomic paradigms have converged through the war to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. It critically examines the war’s impact through four interc ...

L’extrémisme violent au Sahel trouve ses racines dans une combinaison de facteurs historique, politique et socio-économique, tels que l’instabilité étatique, la marginalisation de certaines communautés et l’influence d’idéologies transnationales. Ce Papier retrace l’émergence et l’expansion de groupes comme Al-Qaïda au Maghreb Islamique (AQMI) et l’État islamique au Grand Sahara (EIGS), ainsi que leur fragmentation, illustrée par la création de nouveaux groupes, comme le ...

تتناول هذه الورقة السياسية النزاعات العنيفة المستمرة في السودان، مع التركيز بشكل خاص على الحرب التي اندلعت في الـ15 من أبريل 2023، بين القوات المسلحة السودانية وقوات الدعم السريع. يسلط التحليل الضوء على خلفية هذا النزاع الذي نشب بفعل فشل الانتقال الديمقراطي، بعد الإطاحة بالرئيس عمر البشير سنة 2019. كانت البداية مليئة بالتفاؤل، حيث تم توقيع اتفاق لتقاسم السلطة بين الفصائل العسكرية والمدنية، ولكن هذا الاتفاق انهار سريعاً، وبلغ الانهيار ذروته بحدوث انقلاب عسكري في أكتوبر من سنة 2021. ه ...

Il était une fois le G5 Sahel… En 2014, cinq pays du Sahel que sont la Mauritanie, le Mali, le Burkina Faso, le Niger et le Tchad décidèrent avec l’appui d’une puissance européenne de se constituer en un groupe d’États appelé G5 Sahel. Les cinq pays se partageaient plusieurs caractéristiques dont principalement l’aspect désertique du territoire avec une vulnérabilité conséquente aux changements climatiques, l’immensité des superficies territoriales (à l’exception du Burkina Faso), ...

Sudan, a nation long defined by civil strife, military coups, and an uneven trajectory towards democratic norms, now faces a devastating internal war. The eruption of conflict on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has escalated into a multidimensional crisis. This conflict, fueled by longstanding political rivalries and resource-based tensions, poses grave risks to the stability of Sudan and the broader Horn of Africa. Beyond ...

Dans le vaste domaine des études prospectives, la notion du temps se révèle être un pilier fondamental, orchestre d'une symphonie complexe et variée. Cette notion n'est pas seulement un cadre dans lequel s'inscrivent nos actions et nos pensées; elle est une boussole qui guide notre capacité à anticiper et à modeler le futur. Les études prospectives, en quête de comprendre et de préparer les futurs possibles, se basent sur cette conception du temps pour éclairer et influencer la pris ...

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the role and impact of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), formed in April 2022, in navigating the complexities of Yemen's ongoing civil conflict. The PLC was created to unite various anti-Houthi factions under a single governance framework, with the support of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and to steer Yemen toward peace and stability. However, the PLC has faced numerous obstacles, including internal divisions, resistance from ...

This policy paper examines the ongoing violent conflicts in Sudan, focusing particularly on the war that erupted on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The analysis highlights the backdrop of this conflict, which stems from a failed transition to democracy following the ousting of President Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Initially marked by optimism, the power-sharing agreement between military and civilian factions quickly unraveled, ...

The African Peace and Security Annual Conference (APSACO) just concluded its 8th edition, serving as a crucial platform for discussing conflict prevention and management in Africa. APSACO has fostered a vibrant community that facilitates dialogue on Africa’s unique challenges and allows for the exchange of innovative ideas on conflict resolution. The Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) is proud to be an active participant in this ecosystem, contributing to key initiatives such as ...

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ‘Zeitenwende’ in February 2022 marked a significant shift in German foreign and security policy in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This paper analyzes Germany’s new strategic direction, including increased defense spending, reduced energy dependence on Russia, and strengthened NATO and EU alliances. It examines the domestic political debates surrounding these changes and their implications for European security dynamics. The study also expl ...

History is unfolding before our eyes. These are days that could define the future of our world. The United Nations is calling for a “Summit for the Future,” promising “Multilateral Solutions for a Better Tomorrow.” This vision will take shape on September 23-24, 2024, in New York City. António Guterres, the Secretary-General of the UN since January 2017, has championed this summit as “a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reinvigorate global action, recommit to fundamental principle ...

Negotiations aimed at securing a ceasefire in Sudan began in Geneva this week, marking a critical step toward ending the 16-month-long conflict that has ravaged the nation. Co-organized by the United States and Switzerland, the talks focus on addressing the severe humanitarian crisis and establishing a cessation of hostilities. However, significant challenges persist, particularly concerning the uncertain participation of the key warring parties. Understanding the Conflict Sudan h ...

This opinion was originally published in japanupclose.web-japan.org   On December 16, 2022, the Japanese government approved three important defense documents. The first is the National Security Strategy, which defines the general lines of the country's defense policy for the next decade. The second is the National Defense Strategy, which sets defense objectives and defines the means to achieve them. The third is the Defense C ...

La dynamique qui anime aujourd’hui le conflit israélo-palestinien, notamment la guerre que mènent à Gaza les troupes du Tsahal et les combattants du Hamas, appuyés par le Jihad islamique et les autres factions armées palestiniennes, laisse espérer un accord entre les parties prenantes pour mettre fin à une guerre qui a généré des dizaines de milliers de morts et de blessés. Espoirs nourris par le dernier discours (31 mai) du président américain qui détaille, on ne peut plus clair, l ...

The African National Congress (ANC), which has dominated the political scene in South Africa since 1994, began a downward trend in terms of votes won during the 2009 elections. However, this decline has never cast doubt on the ANC’s dominant position in the South African political landscape. Even at the lowest point in its popularity, during the “State Capture” scandal of 2019, a corruption scandal involving former President Jacob Zuma, the ANC won 57.5% of the vote, which largely a ...

L’African National Congres (ANC), qui domine la vie politique en Afrique du Sud depuis 1994, a entamé, lors des élections de 2009, une pente descendante, en termes de voix remportées lors des élections générales. Cependant, ce recul n’a jamais mis en doute la prédominance de l’ANC dans le panorama politique sud-africain. Au plus bas de sa popularité en 2019, en raison de l’affaire de « Capture de l’État », un scandale de corruption dans lequel a été impliqué l’ancien pre ...

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), created on September 16, 2023, brings together Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso under a mutual defense agreement. The signing of the charter relating to this alliance, which bears the name Liptako-Gourma, was followed by meetings and plans for initiatives that will push the new structure further towards statutes for the alliance, transforming it into a confederation. As an intermediate measure, the three states have already envisaged the creation of ...

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Interview with Sara Mokaddem, Manager of the Monitoring and Strategic Analysis Unit at the Policy Center for the New South, conducted by our columnist Helmut Sorge.   Oil tankers, mega cruise ships, and giant container vessels that once moved through secure waterways—the lifelines of global trade—are now menaced by missile and drone attacks, carried out by Houthi forces in Yemen. Meanwhile, pirates are active off the shores of Somalia, and Singapore or Hong Kong flagged vesse ...

L’Alliance des États du Sahel (AES), créée le 16 septembre 2023, rassemble dans un accord de défense mutuelle le Mali, le Niger et le Burkina Faso. La signature de la charte afférente à cette alliance qui porte le nom du Liptako-Gourma a été suivie de rencontre et de projets d’initiatives qui poussent plus loin la nouvelle structure vers des statuts de l’alliance pour la transformer en confédération. Comme mesure intermédiaire, les trois États ont d’ores et déjà envisa ...

A Series of Disruptions The freighter, on its way from the United Arab Emirates to Bulgaria, loaded with 21000 metric tons of fertilizer, was hit by two Houthi missiles on February 18, 2024, at a point 93 miles east of Aden. The Houthi—not an army but rebels—are firing on ships in solidarity with the tortured people in Gaza, and their leaders, Hamas. Like Hamas, the Houthi are armed by Tehran. The European Union has started a mission to send frigates into the Red Sea, providing pr ...