Geopolitics

Almost a year after the December 2024 fall of former President Bashar al-Assad, Syrians on October 5 took part in their first parliamentary vote—a symbolic milestone for a nation emerging from years of war and authoritarian rule. Rather than a direct popular election, the process followed an indirect model: about 7,000 members of regional electoral colleges cast ballots to choose two-thirds of the 210 seats in parliament. The remaining one-third will be appointed directly by Preside ...

Conventional wisdom holds that the United States has undergone massive deindustrialization in recent decades, with the country's manufacturing sector supposedly withering as it lost ground to China. This narrative has fueled debates about industrial policy, economic nationalism, and the reshoring of manufacturing production. But what if this story is only partially true? What if, instead of disappearing, American industry simply changed its address?  ...

Global economic growth has been more resilient than expected, as the artificial intelligence-led growth seems to be compensating for the negative impacts of trade conflicts. Overstretched asset values and slowing jobs growth may be signaling that the balanced crossing of those two paths will be challenged. ...

This article analyzes the role played by Türkiye as an emerging “middle power”[1], in Africa over the last two decades. It argues that a certain discontinuity can be identified in Türkiye’s foreign policy approach in Africa. The approach has shifted from short-term involvement with African nations to more focused, constructive, vision-oriented partnerships. In addition, Türkiye’s gradual rapprochement with Africa began with a soft-power approach through a humanitarian, cultural, and ...

Il y a presque deux ans, le Burkina Faso, le Mali et le Niger ont quitté la CEDEAO (Communauté économique des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest) - Organisation régionale regroupant quinze pays- pour créer un nouveau groupement d’intégration: l’Alliance des États du Sahel (AES).  Les motivations des trois pays ne sont pas conjoncturelles. Elles reflètent les difficultés de l’Organisation régionale à accompagner les pays en question dans leur quête de sécurité et de développemen ...

Le Processus des États de l’Afrique atlantique (PEAA), lancé par Sa Majesté le Roi Mohammed VI en novembre 2023, ambitionne de transformer la façade atlantique africaine — jusqu’ici morcelée et vulnérable — en un espace géopolitique cohérent, intégré et prospère. L’Initiative s’appuie sur les provinces du Sud marocain comme pont stratégique vers les vingt- trois pays riverains de l’Atlantique, et sur une vision d’ouverture Sud-Sud et euro-africaine.Malgré des disparité ...

L’autrice de cette opinion, Patricia Ahanda, est une alumna du programme Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders 2018. Cette opinion a été publiée initialement sur patriciaahanda.paris Dans un monde marqué par l’émergence d’une instabilité géopolitique globale, par la non-linéarité et l’imprévisibilité croissante des rapports de force, le Maroc s’impose comme un leader pivot du Sud global. Un acteur incontournable capable de relier continents, blocs et cultures dans un mo ...

The October 2025 general elections in Tanzania unfold within a political culture grounded in consensus and institutional continuity. President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s leadership has reopened political space by restoring elite dialogue, easing restrictions on rallies, and facilitating the return of exiled figures. Yet the exclusion of CHADEMA—the principal opposition party—highlights the enduring limits of pluralism. This paper analyzes the Tanzanian electoral process less as a convent ...

This article assesses the economic performance of the original BRICS economies, relative to the growth and currency appreciation projections presented in the papers that introduced the acronym, prior to the grouping becoming a diplomatic, political, and economic reality. It also discusses the BRICS agenda in the current challenging geopolitical context, in which economic fragmentation tends to raise costs for the global economy and presents considerable obstacles for emerging and de ...

Cet article a été publié initialement sur lopinion.fr"Afrique/Europe : il faut repolitiser pour mieux coopérer", selon Karim el Aynaoui, président Exécutif Policy Center for the New South ...

In 2000, The Economist dismissed Africa as the “Hopeless Continent”—a label reflecting a broader system of marginalization rooted in colonial legacy and post-Cold War neglect. This essay offers a realist reappraisal, arguing that Africa’s growing strategic relevance is not the result of benevolence, but of structural necessity.Amid a fracturing global order and the rise of transactional geopolitics under Trump 2.0’s Bessent Doctrine, Africa has become indispensable: rich in critical ...

Bientôt disponible en vente sur Livremoi. Les différentes éditions du Rapport annuel de la géopolitique de l’Afrique, que le Policy Center for the New South publie chaque année, se suivent mais ne se ressemblent pas. Elles ne gardent en commun que leur inscription, dans une même ligne éditoriale, celle qui privilégie l’Afrique en particulier et le Sud en Général. Les différentes éditions se ressemblent en ce sens que leur objet, à toutes, est de permettre à des Africains d ...

This Paper was originally published on cebri.org Within an ever-evolving system of multilateral development banks (MDB) currently reshaped by four structural geo-economic trends, the emergence of new MDBs like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Development Bank (NDB) carries great geopolitical significance. Yet the new MDBs, attuned to institutional and operational realities, have not upended the MDB system. Their relationship with long-e ...

The history of relations between the West and East Asia is deeply rooted in fear, dating back to the 13th century when Mongol hordes swept from Central Asia into the European steppes. This civilizational neurosis took root in the European imagination and has since shaped Western perceptions of the East. The derogatory racial metaphor “Yellow Peril”, which emerged in the late 19th century, was not a new invention but rather a recurring theme invoked whenever politically expedient. It ...

As the ‘Western Sahara Conflict’, rather a dispute, because in 1975 the Sahara sovereignty was disputed by Morocco, Mauritania and the Polisario, dates back to 1975, so its international legal consideration relates to the Declaration of Principles on Western Sahara by Spain, Morocco and Mauritania (Madrid Accord), concluded in 1975 among Spain, Morocco and Mauritania for decolonizing ‘Western Sahara.’Here, the term Western Sahara is not geopolitically neutral in the context of ...

Ce Policy Paper analyse l’érosion progressive de l’ambition d’influence internationale de l’Afrique du Sud, jadis portée par un capital symbolique exceptionnel issu de sa transition postapartheid. Il montre comment Pretoria, longtemps perçue comme une puissance morale et normative au service de la transformation continentale et multilatérale, fait désormais face à des contraintes structurelles qui fragilisent son rôle sur la scène internationale.À partir d’un cadrage histor ...

This Paper was originally published on geopolitique.eu. In jointly hosting the 2030 World Cup, Spain, Morocco, and Portugal will pave the way for innovative and unprecedented regional cooperation between Europe and Africa. This “small vertical” initiative should be part of a more innovative and larger scale effort aimed at strengthening ties between the two continents in order to build what could be called an “Eastern Atlantic Community” (EAC).At a time when vertical ...

Ce papier a été initialement publié sur legrandcontinent.eu Le long des rives orientales de l’océan Atlantique, une « grande verticale » intégrant l’Europe et l’Afrique pourrait devenir un espace stratégique pour réparer la mondialisation.  ...

Le retour de Trump à la présidence des États-Unis en 2025 accélère l’effondrement de l’ordre international issu de 1945, déjà fragilisé par ses contradictions internes, ses promesses non tenues et son incapacité à intégrer le Sud global. Dans un monde traversé par une polycrise — climatique, énergétique, financière et alimentaire — Trump 2.0 incarne un tournant vers un réalisme assumé, où les alliances sont conditionnelles, les institutions multilatérales instrumentalisées, et les r ...

Prochainement disponible sur Livremoi.   Les Dialogues Stratégiques, fruit d'une collaboration entre le HEC Center for Geopolitics et le Policy Center for the New South, constituent une plateforme d'échanges biannuelle dédiée à l’analyse des grandes tendances mondiales et des problématiques régionales qui lient l’Europe et l’Afrique. Réunissant praticiens, décideurs, universitaires et représentants des médias, cet espace de réflexion permet de décoder les transformations ...

The first hundred days of Donald Trump's presidency have again demonstrated his capacity to defy convention and polarize opinion. Far from merely repeating his earlier administration, this new chapter is best understood as part of a long-term repositioning of the United States within a rapidly shifting international system—one where American primacy is no longer assumed but increasingly contested. On the domestic front, Trump's agenda has been marked by political calculation and a ...

In his thought-provoking book, The Sahara Conflict and International Law: Reviewing the Legal Debate from an Integrated Perspective, Pr. Matsumoto Shoji embarks on an ambitious project to dissect the Sahara conflict through the lens of international law, regional politics, and global diplomacy. As a seasoned expert in comparative African law and international legal systems, Matsumoto brings a wealth of expertise to an issue that has long been a flashpoint in North African geopolitic ...

L’ouvrage de Matsumoto Shoji, professeur spécialisé en droit africain comparé et en droit international, est une étude approfondie sur la question du Sahara et ses enjeux juridiques, politiques et diplomatiques. S’appuyant sur une analyse rigoureuse des normes du droit international, des accords passés et des dynamiques régionales, l’auteur met en lumière l’importance de la souveraineté marocaine dans un conflit marqué par des interprétations divergentes de concepts tels que l’autod ...

The autonomy proposal put forward by Morocco in April 2007 as the unique basis for settling the dispute over the Moroccan Sahara is gradually gaining international recognition. Although rejected by Algeria and the polisario, the Initiative has enjoyed broad international support since its launch, particularly from the United States and France, who have reaffirmed their support for Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara region. On April 8, 2025, the United States reiterated its positio ...

The United States is at a critical juncture, facing a pivotal dilemma: preserving global leadership in a world it no longer fully controls. While it proclaims its primacy in the liberal international order, its actions tell a different story—one marked by tariffs, reshoring policies, and an open attempt to contain China’s rise. This strategy is driven less by long-term vision than domestic political calculus, underscoring the urgent need for strategic recalibration. ...

La proposition d’autonomie, avancée par le Maroc en avril 2007 comme base de règlement du différend autour du Sahara marocain, s’impose progressivement sur la scène internationale. Bien qu’elle soit rejetée par l’Algérie et le polisario, cette Initiative a bénéficié, depuis son lancement, d’un large soutien international, en particulier de la part des États-Unis et de la France, qui ont réaffirmé leur appui à la souveraineté marocaine sur cette région. Le 8 avril 2025 ...

This Policy Brief analyzes the strategic significance of the reaffirmation by the United States, on April 8, 2025, of its support for Morocco’s sovereignty over the Moroccan Sahara and of Morocco’s autonomy plan for the territory. This position, which has been maintained under different U.S. administrations, confirms the appropriateness of the Moroccan approach based on compromise, regional stability, and economic integration. It reinforces the isolation of the Polisario Front, whos ...

Le présent Policy Brief analyse la portée stratégique de la réaffirmation, le 8 avril 2025, du soutien américain à la souveraineté du Maroc sur son Sahara et à son plan d’autonomie. Ce positionnement, maintenu sous différentes Administrations américaines, consacre la pertinence de l’approche marocaine fondée sur le compromis, la stabilité régionale et l’intégration économique. Il renforce la dynamique d’isolement du Front Polisario, dont le discours figé sur l’indépendance ...

The Russia–Ukraine war, while primarily perceived as a European security crisis, has triggered deep structural shocks globally, disproportionately affecting the developing world—the “New South.” This essay explores how historical legacies, global economic dependencies, and shifting geoeconomic paradigms have converged through the war to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. It critically examines the war’s impact through four interc ...

The rapprochement between the U.S. and Russia since the election of President Trump for a second term, and more significantly, since his inauguration, has intrigued U.S. traditional allies as well as many politicians in the U.S. The argument presented here explains the causes of that rapprochement and places it within a global context that witnesses the establishment of a new world order, multipolar, in which the U.S. is a key player but not the dominant player it used to be in the ...

Le présent ouvrage reprend les contributions présentées à l’occasion de la première édition de la Conférence-débat sur les enjeux stratégiques des espaces maritimes de l’Afrique atlantique organisée par le Policy Center for the New South le 16 avril 2024. Une Conférence-débat qui procède d’une double logique : continuité et originalité. Une logique de continuité, d’abord, parce que l’Atlantique a toujours constitué pour le Policy Center, depuis la création du think ...

Geopolitical tensions and competing interests define the Eastern Mediterranean's energy landscape. Vast natural gas reserves offer economic potential, but overlapping maritime claims and ongoing conflicts—particularly the Israel-Lebanon war and the Gaza conflict—threaten existing agreements and future projects. The European Union’s efforts to reduce dependence on Russian gas initially positioned the region as a key supplier, but escalating instability now puts these ambitions at ris ...

According to the 2024 Secretary-General Report on Sahara (2024 Report), the biggest challenge may be the absence of progress in reaching a political solution to the Sahara Issue. Why has this conflict continued for half a century? In the 2024 Report, the Secretary-General has not attempted to give a stinging report on the resolution failure. The outline of the 2024 Report is largely as usual. Generally, to resolve a conflict, the proper parties should first be exactly identified. O ...

Over the past 50 years, international law relevant to the Sahara Issue has evolved significantly. Yet, even recent developments, such as a decision by the EU court and a proposal by the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy to partition the Saharan provinces, have not adequately accounted for these advancements. Actions by a state that may not have been scrutinized in 1975 could now face condemnation under contemporary legal standards. Notably, the right to self-determination must not ...

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is at a critical juncture, facing an intricate polycrisis defined by interlinked challenges including energy insecurity, water scarcity, migration, conflict, and socio-political fragmentation. These crises are not isolated; their interconnectedness amplifies their impact, creating a destabilizing feedback loop that hinders sustainable development and peacebuilding efforts. This paper explores the concept of polycrisis through the lens o ...

2024 marked the largest election year in history, with millions of people across the world going to the polls to elect their representatives and leaders. However, in the Global North, Donald Trump’s decisive election victory in the United States threatens to undermine multilateral governance structures that are already under strain. In the Global South, emerging economies from the expanded BRICS group and beyond strive to speak with a single voice, and their ...

ربما شكّلت نتائج الانتخابات الأمريكية مفاجأةً للعديد من المراقبين، حيث أظهرت العديد من الدروس المهمة حول التحولات الجديدة المرتبطة بإدارة الرأي العام وقدرة هذا الأخير على التعبير عن توجهاته بطرق قد تكون مدهشة، خاصة للمتخصصين في مجال ما يُطلَق عليه "علم اتجاهات الرأي العام" "، الذي يتسم بأساليب معقدة من الحيل والخدع والتضليل . وقد شكّل دونالد ترامب تحديًا كبيرًا أمام وسائل الإعلام، خصوصًا تلك التي تُحسب على التيار الديمقراطي والتي سعت جاهدة شيطنته وإقصاءه من المشهد الإعلامي. لكن، رغم ...

In September 2024, scientists at the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service  reported that summer 2024 was the hottest on record globally, and the previous twelve months posted a average global temperature that was a record 1.64 degrees Celsius (2.95 degrees Fahrenheit) above the average during the pre-industrial period, 1850-1900. This was triggered by a combination of a warmer El Niño cycle and the effects of human-caused warming. While it will take more years of ...

This essay examines the implications of the new Trump administration’s ‘America First’ approach for multilateralism, particularly in the context of the Bretton Woods institutions and the World Trade Organization (WTO), and its consequences for the New South. The first Trump administration’s selective multilateralism, marked by the prioritization of U.S. interests over global cooperation, contributed to a more fragmented global order. This was seen in the administration’s withdrawal ...

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is characterised by its diversity in political systems, economic conditions, and social structures. It is home to a mix of high-income countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as low-income and conflict-affected states like Yemen and Iraq. This diversity creates a complex environment for think tanks. Political instability in some areas, coupled with economic uncertainty, presents a challenging landsca ...

Prochainement disponible sur Livremoi et Amazon.   Les Dialogues Stratégiques, fruit d'une collaboration entre le HEC Center for Geopolitics et le Policy Center for the New South, constituent une plateforme d'échanges biannuelle dédiée à l'analyse des grandes tendances mondiales et des problématiques régionales qui lient l'Europe et l'Afrique. Réunissant praticiens, décideurs, universitaires et représentants des médias, cet espace de réflexion permet de décoder les trans ...