The New South in an Evolving Globalization

The Brazilian economy is stuck in a so-called middle-income trap—growth that stalled long before Brazil caught up with the living standards of the highly industrialized countries. After exhibiting a stellar performance in the decades before the 1980s, the economy has since been unable to sustain growth for long periods. The predicament can be summarized using a medical analogy: Brazil has been suffering from both productivity anemia and public sector bloat. On the one hand, it hasn ...

The surprising victory of Javier Milei, the unconventional ‘anarcho-capitalist’ candidate, in the August primaries ahead of Argentina’s October 2023 general election, can be largely credited to his commitment to dollarize the Argentine economy, a move perceived as the ultimate solution to bring an end to the nation's economic turmoil. The potential shift from the local currency to the dollar has sparked concerns about Argentina's bilateral currency swap line with China. This swap l ...

The G20, since its emergence in 1999, has played a crucial role in maneuvering the economy, envisaging a new global financial architecture, and steering clear of the roadblocks hindering economic development. Also known as a ‘multilateral economic caucus’, the G20 has served as a platform for both developed and emerging economies to engage in constructive dialogue. Having as a theme Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam or ‘One Earth— One Family—One Future’, India has assumed the leadership of the ...

Base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) involving multinational companies is a complex, multi-dimensional problem resulting from loopholes and inconsistencies between countries’ tax systems. Addressing it requires coordinated action at the international level. Several organizations have taken initiatives in this direction, including the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which, with the support of the G20, launched an ambitious project to combat BEPS in 2 ...

La réflexion sur le post-conflit a été stimulée ces dernières années par les efforts africains visant à offrir au continent un cadre politique propre à la période post-conflit ou post-crise (transition politique) dans la continuité de l'Architecture de paix et de sécurité de l'Union africaine (APSA) et dans le sillage de l'Architecture de gouvernance africaine (AGA). Ce souci pour une paix durable sur le continent est à l’origine de l’adoption à Banjul (Gambie) en 2006 ...

This Policy Brief examines the current banking crisis in the United States and its implications for Africa. Many studies have pointed out the main factors responsible for this crisis, including poor risk-management practices in the failed banks, the sector’s weak regulatory structure, and the failure of bank supervisors. However, a key factor that has contributed to the extent and speed of the crisis is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy actions, including the elimination of re ...

This paper aims to investigate the impact of an inflation targeting framework adoption by the central bank, on the reduction of public debt ratios in emerging countries, through the potential discipline-enhancing effect of inflation targeting on the conduct of fiscal policy in general. The impact evaluation method used is the Propensity Score Matching (PSM), which allows the evaluation of the treatment effect of inflation targeting on fiscal discipline, in terms of public debt reduc ...

Recent initiatives and policy moves by China and other countries to extend the reach of use of the renminbi in the international monetary system, while the U.S. dollar share in global reserves has slightly shrunk in relative terms, have sparked frequent discussions about a hypothetical “de-dollarization” of the global economy. We approach here what that would mean in terms of global currency functions as means of payment and store of value. While we point out a relative decline of ...

Three significant changes to the macroeconomic policy regime in advanced economies, compared to the post-global financial crisis period, have unfolded in the last two years. First, fears of a chronic insufficiency of aggregate demand as a growth deterrent prevailing after the 2008 global financial crisis, have been superseded by supply-side shocks and inflation. Second, as a result of the first change, the era of abundant and cheap liquidity provided by central banks has given way t ...

L’objectif de ce papier est d’essayer d’examiner si l’implémentation du cadre de ciblage de l’inflation par la banque centrale, permet une réduction de la dette publique dans les pays émergents, à travers l'effet disciplinant du ciblage sur la conduite de la politique budgétaire en général. Pour ce faire, la méthode d’évaluation d’impact utilisée est l’appariement par score de propension ou Propensity Score Matching (PSM), qui permet l’évaluation de l’effet de traitement ...

The current bleak outlook for the world economy, with a likely recession in major economies, high inflation, rising interest rates, and slow productivity growth, will adversely emerging market and developing countries (EMDE) over the next few years. Unfortunately, these countries emerged from COVID-19 with less fiscal space and rising debt service payments. Policies to insulate the domestic economy from these external shocks will present policymakers with difficult choices among exc ...

The US dollar has risen dramatically in value against other currencies recently. Three channels through which factors affecting bilateral exchange rates operate have been pulling up the U.S. dollar: yield differentials, liquidity differentials, and growth differentials. The strong appreciation of the US dollar against other currencies recently reinforced the contractionary pressures present in the global economy. Ultimately, the “turn” or “pivot” of the dollar will most likely occur ...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, scaled up the ongoing conflict in Donbas beyond its regional borders, hindering and halting different aspects of economic life. Considering the internal geography of Ukraine’s economic structure, the damages to physical infrastructure and supply chain disruptions are likely to propagate to other parts of the country through an intricate plot of production and income linkages. From a disaggregated analysis of multiregional and mul ...

Sleepless nights and the tireless search for compromise allowed WTO members to agree on concrete deliverables during the WTO 12th Ministerial Conference held last June. Those results reinforce Multilateralism. And this is a significant gain given the multiplicity of global crises that surround us. The Outcome include 6 Agreements, Declarations and Ministerial Decisions that respond to some of today's challenges, notably on Fisheries and Ocean Sustainability as well as responses to P ...

In its May 15th meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) lifted its benchmark policy rate by 0.75% to 1.50%–1.75%, the biggest increase since 1994. The central bank also signaled an additional increase of 0.75% ahead. FOMC members also raised the median projection for the Fed funds rate to a range between 3.25% and 3.50% next year. In addition to hikes in basic interest rates, liquidity conditions in the US economy will also be affected by the sh ...

Ce thème, abordé au Centre HEC de Géopolitique à Jouy-en-Josas, lors de la 12e édition des Dialogues stratégiques avec le Policy Center for the New South, une rencontre semestrielle, a permis de revenir dans le détail sur cette zone qui relie la Méditerranée à l’océan Indien, à la jointure de trois continents : l’Asie, l’Afrique et l’Europe. Cette route maritime qui s’étend sur plus de 2 200 km, pour une largeur qui varie de 300 km à moins de 30 km entre Djibouti et le Yémen, représ ...

Adoption of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) Doctrine at the United Nations’ 2005 World Summit constituted a watershed moment for international diplomacy and multilateralism. With multiple pillars, R2P was established to ensure that the international community was better placed to act in the face of mass atrocity. Unfortunately, R2P’s poor implementation, and weaponization that has undermined its precepts, have seen it displaced from the holistic framework of state-building and c ...

Les crises internationales de type de la guerre en Ukraine constituent des ruptures historiques qui induisent des changements profonds de paradigmes, mais aussi de systèmes d’alliances et de marges d’influence. Elles produisent, à terme, une nouvelle configuration des rapports de force, ce qui exige des acteurs des capacités d’anticipation et d’adaptation. Le continent Africain se trouve géopolitiquement, et en quelque sorte géographiquement, à la première loge de la guerre d ...

Emerging market and developing economies (EMDE) face a common set of external shocks: rising energy and food prices; tightening in global financial conditions caused by the prospect of sharper interest rate hikes and anticipation of "quantitative tightening"; and return of restrictions on mobility in China, on account of the Covid zero policy, leading to slumping in growth and weakening one of the primary growth drivers for the other EMDE. However, the impacts of those common shocks ...

The shadows of Africa's colonial history loom over the French presidential elections. Emmanuel Macron came to office claiming to be “neither of left nor right,” and hoping to fundamentally transform France’s approach to Africa, and to heal the wounds of colonialism. Given the Russian-Ukraine War, the failure of Operation Barkhane, the rise of the French right, and the general African fatigue with Françafrique, it is not clear if an overhaul of France's African policy is possible. ...

The war in Ukraine is bringing substantial financial, commodity price, and supply chain shocks to the global economy. Sanctions on Russia are already having a significant impact on its financial system and its economy. Price shocks will have a global impact. Energy and commodity prices—including wheat and other grains—have risen, intensifying inflationary pressures from supply chain disruptions and the recovery from the pandemic. The push toward relative deglobalization received fro ...

Le système monétaire international a connu de nombreuses crises. Celle consécutive à la dématérialisation régulière de la monnaie l'oblige à se reconstruire, suite au développement des crypto-monnaies et au succès du spéculatif et emblématique . Cette étude est, tout d'abord, consacrée à l'affaiblissement de ce système, avec une monnaie chinoise qui a choisi de ne plus s'y soumettre et des Etats qui dérogent à ses règles, comme le Monténégro, décidant unilaté ...

Le Sommet Union européenne (UE) - Union africaine (UA), qui s’est tenu à Bruxelles les 17 et 18 février 2022, entend marquer un tournant dans les relations entre les deux continents. L’agenda européen pour l’année 2022 met au centre de ses priorités les relations Europe - Afrique. Celles-ci sont aussi l'un des principaux axes défendus par la Présidence française du Conseil de l’Union européenne (PFUE) et le Président français Emmanuel Macron dans de son discours inaugur ...

“Once upon a time a classic first line in fairy tales, used by Charles Dickens, for example in his “A Christmas card” in 1843, or Charles Perrault, the French poet, writer of “Cinderella” and “Sleeping Beauty”, both published in 1697 in “histoires ou contes du temp passé” Once upon a time suggests a nostalgic touch, the good old, romantic days glamourized because negative memories are annihilated and deposed in the dustbin of the human mind. Once upon a time, Beirut, the capital ci ...

Le sommet afro-européen des 17 et 18 février 2022 à Bruxelles marque la sixième édition de la rencontre de haut niveau entre les deux continents. Ce sommet, organisé traditionnellement en alternance entre l’Afrique et l’Europe, intervient dans un contexte régional et international marqué par la perspective de sortie de la pandémie de la Covid-19, l’épreuve de force entre l’Occident et la Russie et les turbulences que connaissent certaines régions africaines. Face à une E ...

The African Union (AU) and the European Union (EU) have never struggled to list common areas of interest or set up thematic partnerships and joint initiatives. The persistent challenge however is translating these partnerships into impact for both blocs of nations, particularly where interests diverge, such as those related to migration and green transition. Fifteen years since the critical Lisbon summit and the Joint Africa-EU Strategy, the time to move is now. To make the partners ...

COVID-19 has ravaged nearly every country in the world, with the globalization of recent decades intensifying its spread. As of mid-2021, the world had spent $16.5 trillion—18% of global GDP—to fight the disease. And that amount does not even include the most important losses such as deaths, mental health effects, restrictions on human freedom, and other nonmonetary suffering. Nearly 90% of this spending was by developed economies, with the rest by emerging market and developing eco ...

COVID-19 has caused serious damage throughout the entire world. As of mid-2021, the global fiscal cost of COVID-19—excluding the most important consequences, such as human lives, mental health effects, restrictions of human freedom, and other non-pecuniary components, have amounted to at least $16.5 trillion, about 18% of world GDP (Dinh 2021). Financial support has varied across countries depending on income level, political willingness, and the extent of the pandemic in each econo ...