Publications /
Opinion

Back
A plethora of strategies and plans
Authors
January 31, 2022

It has been more than 100 years since Germany manifested colonial power, a dark period of history indeed. Political and military leaders, supported by its ruler, Wilhelm II, Emperor of Germany and King of Prussia, committed crimes against humanity on African land.  The first genocide of the 20th Century, mass killings of 65 000 Herero in Africa, today known as Namibia. Between 1904 and 1908, Germany suffocated humanity in concentration camps like Shark Island, forcing them into deadly labor camps.

The German Empire colonized Togo, Burundi, Tanzania, Chad, Rwanda, Cameroon, Central African Republic. In no African land was this colonial occupier more brutal than in the South West, attempting to control rebellious groups like the Herero and Nama by ethnic extermination, driving them into the Kalahari Desert.  Many died of thirst.  31 years of German rule ended by military defeat in the First World War. Still, Berlin repeated its crime against humanity three decades later- yesterday the Herero, today the Jews, the horror not named Shark Island, but Auschwitz. The Germans are back in Africa, mainly in the Sahel, a region south of the Sahara Desert, stretching from the Atlantic coast to Sudan, about 1500 German soldiers, about 880 of those are peacekeepers under the command of the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) mandate.

 German Luftwaffe pilots are taking off from a Nigerien airport in Tahoua, bordering Northern Mali. German special forces train and accompany Malian units into combat against suspected terrorist groups aligned to” Islamic State in the Greater Sahara” or al Qaeda’s affiliate” Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal- Muslimeen”. They patrol the borderless eternity of the desert with French partners, surprised by land mines or attacks of Malian terrorists in the north or center of the troubled nation. 17 European countries have deployed soldiers or police instructors to support the MINUSMA  forces of about 15000 fighters as of September 2021.” Combatting terrorist groups is not part of the explicit mandate of MINUSMA ”, reminds the German “ Zentrum fuer International Friedenseinsaetze”in Berlin (Center for International Peace Operations)in a report published 2020 Besides, MINUSMA is the most dangerous UN peace operation with 242 military  fatalities to date (Pass Blue, December 23, 2021). Last October, one UN peacekeeper was killed near the Malian -Algerian border, four others were seriously injured. Early December 2021 an UN convoy struck an improvised explosive device when driving in an area where groups linked to al Queda and ISIS are operating (Aljazeera, December 8, 2021)

The joint Niger, Mali, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Chad under G5 Sahel Joint Force, where each nation contributes 1000 soldiers, in counterterrorist operations in their own country, but also mandated to cross borders of the G5 states in the pursuit of their targets, particularly in the border triangle Mali-Niger-Burkina Faso. In 2012, the Malian state collapsed in the face of a military coup, and heavily armed Tuareg militants, who had worked as mercenaries in Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya, triggered a rebellion. By late 2012-armed jihadists and their allies had captured the cities of Kidal, Timbuktu, and Gao. A new state, Azawad, declared its independence, which did not last long: Paris deployed 4000 troops, supported by the US and European airpower, and by the end of the year, they succeeded in recapturing the lost territory- two years later the warring parties signed the “Algier’s accords” under the auspice of the US, USA, and UN, France and Algeria.

Katherine Pye, author of the study The Sahel: Europe’s forever war? , published by the London based think tank Centre for European Reform, (March 31, 2021) notes that “the ink was barely dry“ on the Northern Mali- peace agreement, when a new conflict erupted, jihads attacking, ethnic frictions exploded Worse: extremist organizations are gradually expanding to Niger, Burkina Faso, and more recently in northern Ivory Coast and northern Benin.  Events in the Sahel, and  Mali especially, “are taking an uncertain and worrying turn,“ writes Rida Lyammouri, Senior fellow in the Policy Center for the New South in his timely study, “ For Mali and the Sahel, new tensions and an old-and worsening -security problem”. Mali witnessed two coups d’état in less than a year, while the West African Sahel went through the most violent year yet, and” there are no signs that the violence is slowing down.”

A political, military, and social cacophony, a drama in the center of drought and floods, kidnapping and treason, conspiracy and assassination attempts, broken ceasefires and shifting frontiers, border crossing ambushes, human trafficking-welcome to the Sahel. In May 2020, the French Ministry  for Europe  and Foreign Affairs deplored in a research paper(G-5 Sahel Force and the Sahel Alliance)the growing threat of terrorism and organized crime, climate change, and demographic growth, leading to cases of institutional fragility in the region.” In a document titled “US relations with Mali, the State Department writes in November 16, 2021 “prolonged displacement, disrupted trade flows, and constrained humanitarian access continue to increase vulnerabilities among affected households.” Mali, a nation of an estimated 20 million people, existing on 1.2 million square kilometers, double the size of France, is, in foreign service speak, “experiencing a complex emergency.”

More bad news

“More than 35 percent of the Malian population, approximately 7.2 million people, live in areas affected by the crisis, and five million people experience food insecurities, and five million people need human assistance (US State Department). The number of internally displaced persons (IDP’s) continues to rise. January 2021 recorded over 147 000 refugees, and in April 2021, IDP’s surged past  372 000, the highest number to date .

“The  number of civilians killed by extremist groups and security forces in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso “reached record highs in 2020 and 2021”, noted Rida Lyammouni; in her “Policy Center for the New South “paper, published in November 2021.”In Mali, data showed that state forces killed more civilians than extremist groups. In Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso 2400 civilians were killed in 2020, making it the deadliest year yet.”   Since   2011, Katherine Pye stated in her study, there has been “a plethora of strategies and action plans from France and the EU”. While they differ in their exact focus, they all priorities shorter term interest in curbing migration and counter terrorism. The Sahel, the author insists, is “a strategic priority for three reasons”:

 “First, its location just below Algeria and Libya makes it relevant for the EU, which is seeking to limit migration flows from Africa. Many Europe-bound migrants travel through Niger and then towards the Mediterranean. Networks of smugglers have used the region’s porous borders to traffic migrants through Libya to cross the sea in boats. Second, the presence of jihadist groups affiliated with al -Qaeda and IS in the region is of great concern in Europe. France, in particular is worried that these organizations could sponsor terrorism in Europe or attack French-owned uranium mines in Niger, which are crucial to France's nuclear power program. Third, the region is of broader importance to European security. The Sahel conflict is a rare example of Europe deploying significant resources and political capital. The EU now plays a role as a crisis manager in the region, with three Common Security and Defense Policy missions in Mali and Niger… By investing so much energy and so many resources in the Sahel, the EU has allowed itself to demonstrate its competence as a crisis manager to the rest of the world, and to prove it can manage instability in its own backyard.” These expectations, more cloud cuckoo land than reality, are in collision with the decision of France, to scale back its Sahel engagement, reducing its troops from 5100 to 3000.

Tensions between France and its former colony Mali”, revealed France24 (September 14, 2021) have grown” since reports were circulating that “the Sahel state was close to hiring 1000 paramilitaries from Russia’s private security firm Wagner to help its fight against groups linked to al Qaeda and ISIS.”  Rida Lyammouri of the Policy Center for the New South suggests: “For Russia upgrading its military relationship with Sahel countries- former colonies that still maintain deep links with France-would represent a notable geopolitical win”, a fact not ignored by the European Sahel partners .”If the Mali government makes such a deal with Russia, it goes against everything that Germany, France, the EU, and the UN have been doing in Mali over the last eight years, ”warned Germany’s then  Defense Secretary Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer on Twitter. (EURACTIV.com, September 15, 2021).

One day before Christmas eve the rumor turned into reality: “Western powers slam “deployment “of Russian mercenaries in Mali” ,reported  Aljazeera ( December 24, 2021) in a headline,” a “French government  source told AFP news agency ,“we are seeing repeated air rotations with military transport planes belonging to the Russian army and installations at Bamako airport to allow the arrival of a significant  number of mercenaries ”.France and more than a dozen  Western allies, including Canada, Germany and the UK;  condemned the arrival  of troops sponsored by Moscow on Malian territory”, because this decision by the Malian government,” can only further deteriorate the security situation in West Africa, lead to an aggravation of the human rights situation in Mali (and) threaten the agreement for peace and reconciliation in Mali” (Aljazeera, December 24, 2021).Crisis manager EU has another crisis on hand, its own, a possible ,even accidental, confrontation of German or French soldiers with Russian mercenaries or troops in the desert or a forgotten village of Africa.

 

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    April 26, 2024
    L’African National Congres (ANC), qui domine la vie politique en Afrique du Sud depuis 1994, a entamé, lors des élections de 2009, une pente descendante, en termes de voix remportées lors des élections générales. Cependant, ce recul n’a jamais mis en doute la prédominance de l’ANC dans le panorama politique sud-africain. Au plus bas de sa popularité en 2019, en raison de l’affaire de « Capture de l’État », un scandale de corruption dans lequel a été impliqué l’ancien pre ...
  • Authors
    April 24, 2024
    The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), created on September 16, 2023, brings together Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso under a mutual defense agreement. The signing of the charter relating to this alliance, which bears the name Liptako-Gourma, was followed by meetings and plans for initiatives that will push the new structure further towards statutes for the alliance, transforming it into a confederation. As an intermediate measure, the three states have already envisaged the creation of ...
  • Authors
    March 22, 2024
    L’Alliance des États du Sahel (AES), créée le 16 septembre 2023, rassemble dans un accord de défense mutuelle le Mali, le Niger et le Burkina Faso. La signature de la charte afférente à cette alliance qui porte le nom du Liptako-Gourma a été suivie de rencontre et de projets d’initiatives qui poussent plus loin la nouvelle structure vers des statuts de l’alliance pour la transformer en confédération. Comme mesure intermédiaire, les trois États ont d’ores et déjà envisa ...
  • Authors
    February 16, 2024
    The destruction of a vibrant and historic nation, sprinkled with color and culture, turned into a footnote of geopolitics. The more than 377,000 war victims disappeared from global headlines. The official fighting ended in Yemen on March 29, 2022. A ceasefire was declared by the Saudi Arabia-led coalition and the rebellious Houthis. China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, praised “the wave of reconciliation” that swept across the region. The main foreign supporter of Yemen’s Houthi—Iran— ...
  • Authors
    Pascal Chaigneau
    Nihal Aïcha El Mquirmi
    Jacques Gravereau
    Sonia Le Gouriellec
    Philippe Migaux
    Agnès Mikita
    Alain Oudot de Dainville
    Olivier Tramond
    Sâ Benjamin Traoré
    October 26, 2023
    Les Dialogues Stratégiques, une collaboration entre HEC Center for Geopolitics et Policy Center fort he New South, représentent une plateforme d'analyse et d'échange biannuelle réunissant des experts, des praticiens, des décideurs politiques, ainsi que el monde universitaire et les médias au service d'une réflexion critique et approfondie sur les tendances politiques mondiales et sur une problématique d'intérêt régional, d'importance commune à al fois pour l'Europe et l'Afrique. Ce ...
  • September 28, 2023
    Bientôt disponible en vente sur Livremoi.   En présentant ces textes, publiés dans les plateformes du Policy Center for the New South, pour partie, et dans divers supports, pour l’autre, on découvre à leur lecture des sujets absents des sciences sociales nationales. Le premier défi que doit surmonter le chercheur marocain qui s’intéresse aux affaires militaires et de sécurité (AMS) est la sous-conceptualisation du domaine en raison du désintérêt des universités et du c ...
  • September 8, 2023
    Le Mozambique fait face depuis 2017 à une insurrection menée dans la province de Cabo Delgado, au nord-est du pays, par un groupe militant islamiste dénommé Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamaa (ASWJ) – qui aurait fait allégeance à l’État islamique (EI) et qui est aussi connu sous le nom de Al Shabab, sans lien avec le groupe éponyme en Somalie. Les problèmes sociaux et économiques de cette région – qui concentre la plus grande partie des 18 % de musulmans que compte le pays, à majorité chrétienne ...
  • Authors
    Sous la direction de
    Abu Bakarr Bah
    Alioune Ndiaye
    Babacar Ndiaye
    Benjamin Traoré
    Bodo Andrianarisoa
    Dorcy Rugamba
    Gilles Yabi
    Hamza Mjahed
    Hind Zaamoun
    Mathieu Bere
    Mahamadou Simpara
    Mohamed Ahmed Gain
    Norman Sempijja
    Patrice Kouraogo
    Rania Barrak
    Silindile Mlilo
    Hala Boumaiz
    Soazic Elise Wang Sonne
    Tarek Cherkaoui
    Youssef Errami
    Yousra Hamdaoui
    September 8, 2023
    Cette 6ème édition du rapport géopolitique de l’Afrique s’inscrit dans la même ligne éditoriale que ses précédentes. Elle se veut une plateforme où des auteurs et analystes africains racontent l’Afrique géopolitique de 2022 en débordant parfois sur les événements saillants du début de 2023. Ce moment, d’environ une année et demie, ne peut échapper à la guerre en Ukraine comme toile de fond du monde. Même lorsque les auteurs ne s’y réfèrent pas explicitement, cett ...
  • September 01, 2023
    In this podcast, we are joined by Dr. Len Ishmael, editor and co-author of the book “Aftermath of War in Europe: The West VS. the Global South?”. Dr. Ishmael delves into the groundbreakin ...