Publications /
Policy Brief

Back
Download PDF
The Impact of Coronavirus on the Global Economy
Authors
Otaviano Canuto
June 22, 2020
Related topics: 
Economy
Macroeconomics and regulation

COVID-19 brought the global economy to a sudden stop, causing shocks to supply and demand. Starting in January 2020, country after country suffered outbreaks of the new coronavirus, with each facing epidemiological shocks that led to economic and financial shocks as a consequence. How quickly and to what extent will national economies recover after the pandemic has passed? This will depend on success in containing the coronavirus and on exit strategies, as well as on the effectiveness of policies designed to deal with the negative economic effects of the coronavirus. The impact of coronavirus on the global economy will extend beyond 2020. According to forecasts from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, GDP per capita at the end of 2021 is still expected to be lower than December 2019 in most countries. Emerging markets and other developing countries, in addition to facing difficulties in dealing with their own coronavirus outbreaks, have suffered additional shocks from abroad. In their cases, the new coronavirus brought a perfect storm. One can foresee a post-coronavirus global economy marked by higher levels of public and private debt, acceleration in digitization processes, and less globalization.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Adhésion du Maroc à la CEDEAO : un accord de principe
    Moubarack Lo
    June 21, 2017
    Ce podcast est présenté par Moubarack Lo. Il y analyse l’apport de l’adhésion marocaine à la CEDEAO suite à l’accord de principe donné par ses membres au 51e sommet de Monrovia le 4 juin ...
  • Download PDF
    Africa and global commodity markets: from cyclical realities to structural
    Authors
    Yves Jégourel
    June 9, 2017
    In June 2017, the second Annual Report on Commodity Analytics and Dynamics In Africa (Arcadia report) was published, in collaboration between the OCP Policy Center and CyclOpe. Its aim is to annually report on the evolution of the economic, legal, financial and societal links between Africa and the world commodity markets, both with regard to the cyclical changes in the markets, and to the structural changes or failures that may have emerged. Focusing on 2016 and early 2017, the Arc ...
  • Download PDF
    Long-term finance and BNDES tapering in Brazil
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    Matheus Cavallari
    June 6, 2017
    One major policy issue in Brazil is how to boost productivity, while following a path of fiscal consolidation that will take at least a decade to bring the public-debt-to-GDP ratio back to 2000 levels (Canuto, 2016a). The productivityboosting agenda includes not only the implementation of a full range of structural reforms, but also recovering and upgrading the national infrastructure and other long-term investments. Given that fiscal consolidation has already been leading to less t ...
  • Identifier les classes moyennes africaines
    Clélie Nallet
    June 06, 2017
    Ce podcast est présenté par Mme. Clélie Nallet, chercheur au Programme Afrique subsaharienne de l’Ifri. La catégorie « classes moyennes africaines » est désormais largement mobilisée dans ...
  • Brazil’s Pension Reform Proposal is Necessary and Socially Balanced
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    April 20, 2017
    Last week the World Bank released a Staff Note (2017) analyzing the pension reform proposal sent last December by Brazil’s Federal Government to Congress. It concludes that (p.16, our emphasis): “… the proposed pension reform in Brazil is necessary, urgent if Brazil is to meet its spending rule, and socially balanced in that the proposal mostly eliminates subsidies received under the current rules by formal sector workers and civil servants who belong to the top 60 percent of house ...
  • Download PDF
    Rethinking development finance: towards a new “possible trinity” for growth?
    Authors
    Luiz A Pereira da Silva
    April 5, 2017
    Development finance is an issue that typically concerns developing countries where numerous, grave socioeconomic problems persist, including – and not among the least – the need for stable development finance in higher quantity and of higher quality. However, development finance could also be used today as a growth-enhancing concept applicable to advanced economies, to boost their growth and help their social inclusion. It could contribute to rebalancing macroeconomic policies and m ...
  • Beyond the Ballot: Turkey’s Economy at the Crossroads
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    April 3, 2017
    Turkey has been approaching a crossroads for some time now. Soon enough it will have to choose a direction. On April 16, 2017 Turks will vote in a referendum on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s proposed constitutional amendment that would shift the country’s power center from a parliamentary system to a presidential one.  If successful, not only would this further consolidate power in the executive’s hands—in this case Erdogan himself—but it would also pave the way for him to rema ...
  • Colombia: Getting Peace, Getting Growth
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    Diana Quintero
    March 23, 2017
    Colombia is a country of incredible contrast: known to be one of the places on earth where people feel happiest, it is also one of the most unequal and for many decades, a country immersed in a protracted conflict. Despite the latter - and here is the starkest contrast - Colombia has recently succeeded in reducing poverty and building the foundations for sustainable growth and prosperity. The Santos administration has delivered on two of its main promises: sign a peace agreement wi ...