Jessica DE ALBA ULLOA, Research associate, Mixican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI)

« Amérique latine, crises et sorties de crises », telle était la première des deux thématiques des 6èmes Dialogues stratégiques, organisés le 4 avril par HEC Paris (Centre de géopolitique) et OCP Policy Center. Un tableau mitigé a été dressé, avec des signes de reprise et une croissance supérieure à 2 % qui n’empêchent pas des situations de crise comme au Brésil, au Nicaragua ou au Vénézuela. Crise d’un modèle d’oligarchies anti-capitalistes Au Vénézuela, la corruption paraît si e ...

If I were to synthesize the current situation of the Brazilian economy in one sentence, I would say: “it is suffering from a combination of ‘productivity anemia’1 and ‘public sector obesity2’". On the one hand, the mediocre performance of productivity in Brazil in recent decades has limited its GDP growth potential. On the other, the gluttony for expanding public spending has become increasingly incompatible with such limits in the potential expansion of GDP, particularly since ...

Emerging economies started playing a more predominant role in the international agenda. Finance and defence, which were the major determinants of the global chessboard until the end of the Cold War, though still relevant, should give room to other essential elements to secure growth and prosperity. Energy security is of quintessential importance in this new world order. ...

The IMF recently revised down its growth forecasts, making large changes in the forecasts for some emerging markets, in particular Brazil and oil-producing countries (such as Nigeria and Saudi Arabia). This report presents a snapshot of the global unemployment outlook and discusses what the recent revisions could mean for the unemployment outlook for these countries based on past relationships between growth and unemployment. We conclude with a look at the growth-unemployment link f ...

La situation géopolitique prévalant actuellement dans le pourtour méditerranéen est difficile et complexe, en raison notamment, de l’apparition d’une nouvelle équation stratégique qui laisse craindre une nouvelle flambée de violence. Dans ce contexte perturbé, le Maroc, sous le leadership de SM le Roi Mohammed VI, s’est engagé dans un processus démocratique, fondé sur une approche inclusive qu’il mène avec foi et détermination. La Méditerranée conserve, certes, une triple vocation ...

The global unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly in 2016 to 5.7 percent but remain well below the peak of 6.2 percent recorded in 2009. The increase results from deteriorating growth prospects among many emerging markets and in some oil-producing countries. According to forecasts released in the IMF’s October 2015 World Economic Outlook, big increases in unemployment are expected to occur next year in Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, and Russia. ...

Brazil’s future prospects, and ability to harness its advantages, will hinge on its own policy choices over the next few years. Yet the outlook for meaningful change is unclear. At present, Brazil is in a weaker position than four years ago, from both an economic and a foreign policy standpoint. Even in a scenario where Brazil’s economy gradually returns to the course it was on until 2008, no major strategic changes are likely to happen in Rousseff’s four-year term. ...