Trade

Estimates based on last year’s U.S. imports, by Maia G. Crook (from JPMorgan) indicate that the average effective U.S. tariff rate is currently 16%, and is expected to rise to 20% by the end of 2025. This represents an increase from 13% mid-year and 2.3% in 2024 (Figure 1). Effective tariff rates are a measure of the degree of protection a tariff structure offers to the value added provided by each sector to a country’s final product, taking into account both the tax on final g ...

History offers ample instances in which the veneer of fairness in international relations has worn away, revealing with unsentimental clarity the crude mechanics of power. The contemporary global trade architecture, promoted for decades by the United States as a virtuous system of open markets, a rules-based order, and reciprocal gains, is merely the latest in a long lineage of such illusions. ...

The multilateral, rule-based trading system underpinned by the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been undermined by the unilateral imposition of U.S. tariffs. Crucially, the foundational principle of non-discrimination among WTO members has been abandoned. While many countries have attempted to negotiate with the U.S. to resolve tariff disputes, they have simultaneously sought to deepen trade ties with each other through plurilateral and regi ...

This Paper was originally published on springer.comBrazil went from a quite impressive economic performance during much of the twentieth century to a period of mediocre growth from 1980 onwards. This shift has positioned the country as a textbook case of the “middle-income trap”. This paper aims to demonstrate how certain transformations in the international economy since the 1980s—notably the globalization of firms and industries—combined with a set of domestic challenges, disrupte ...

An Executive Order issued on July 30 by President Donald Trump hiked United States tariffs on imports from Brazil by 40%, in addition to the 10% established on April 2—the so-called ‘Liberation Day’ when Trump set out ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on countries around the world.The decree came with a long list of exemptions for Brazilian exports. For a number of product lines, the 10% April 2 tariff will continue to apply. These include air transport equipment, orange juice, furniture, fuel, ...

This paper was originally published on The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) In the face of Africa’s development challenges and the mismatch between long-term needs and short-term pressures, ring-fencing development expenditures offers a viable solution to secure sustainable financing for growth. ...

Available soon on livremoi. The 2025 edition of the African Economic Report continues in the spirit of previous versions. It presents a broad overview of the continent’s economic evolution and offers insights into Africa’s relationship with the rest of the world. In other words, it explores how Africa navigates the effects of global fragmentation within its regional spaces while pursuing its ambition of continental integration. ...

Developing countries have few options to deal with the ongoing tariff war amid unpredictable shifts in global supply chains. However, regional economic integration offers a strategic path of development in these uncertain and challenging times. Helped by geographical proximity and cultural familiarity, countries in a region can benefit greatly from promoting trade with one another, reaping the benefits of comparative advantages and economies of scale—if they are able to establish a ...

President Donald Trump's "Reciprocal Tariff" policy, announced on April 2, 2025 (dubbed "Liberation Day"), represents one of the most significant shifts in U.S. trade policy in nearly a century. Trump’s policy imposes a baseline 10% tariff on all imports and additional country-specific tariffs that range from 10% to 50% for countries designated as having "non-reciprocal trading practices" with the U.S. These specific tariffs are determined based on each country’s bilateral trade bal ...

Last week marked my twenty-third consecutive week attending the World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, DC. While I no longer participate in the official sessions, I continue to be invited to the many side conventions and debates that surround them.A key moment is always the release of the IMF's World Economic Outlook report. This year, it drew particular attention due to curiosity about how the institution would project the impacts of the tariff war initiated by Trump’s s ...

The United States is at a critical juncture, facing a pivotal dilemma: preserving global leadership in a world it no longer fully controls. While it proclaims its primacy in the liberal international order, its actions tell a different story—one marked by tariffs, reshoring policies, and an open attempt to contain China’s rise. This strategy is driven less by long-term vision than domestic political calculus, underscoring the urgent need for strategic recalibration. ...

  Marcus Vinicius De Freitas Professor, China Foreign Affairs University Senior Fellow, Policy Center for the New South The Chinese government’s white paper, ‘China’s Position on Some Issues Concerning China-US Economic and Trade Relations,[1]’ issued on April 9, 2025, in response to the escalating tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, is not just a diplomatic response to the escalating tensions with the United States. It is a meticulously crafted strategic document th ...

When President Donald Trump gave his State of the Union address to a joint session of the United States Congress on March 4, 2025, many of his announced tariffs went into effect. These included a 25% levy on most goods imports from Canada (10% on oil and gas) and Mexico (though Trump subsequently exempted Canadian and Mexican imports that satisfy USMCA rules of origin requirements); and 20% (doubling the 10% implemented in February) on all imports from China. A 25% tariff has been i ...

This Chapter was originally published on springer.comSo, this session really is about what's happened to global trade in the last couple of decades, of course, really since the global financial crisis, trade dependency has levelled off, peaking at around 60% in 2008, 2009.  ...

The road to decarbonizing the planet runs through the energy transition, which includes the shift from fossil-fueled cars to renewable energy vehicles. This automotive transition is unfolding as a true revolution in the industry. The evolution toward electric and hybrid vehicles has come in tandem with the ascent of Chinese producers. In the current context of geopolitical and technological rivalries, the automotive transition has been marked by an intense trade war, with implicati ...

This paper examines the implications of the U.S.-China trade war for developing countries, particularly in light of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The study traces the origins and escalation of the trade conflict, analyzing its multiple impacts on global trade patterns and economic growth. While some developing countries have benefited from trade diversion and supply-chain shifts, others, especially resource-exporting nations and the least-developed countries, have faced signi ...

  This paper was originally published on t20brasil.org The resurgence of Neo protectionism as a reality is creating a pressing need to establish New Industrial Policies (NIPs) capable of striking a balance between Global Value Chains (GVC) managers' quest for efficiency and policy makers' need for more increasing resilience or national security in a turmoiled geopolitical landscape. Furthermore, although NIPs might pursue legitimate non-economic objectives, they are often cap ...

The 2024 Annual Report on the African Economy is dedicated to monetary and financial issues on the Continent. There are three reasons for this choice. African economies are exposed to macro-financial instabilities partly generated by global monetary and financial turbulence. The Continent’s currencies and financial systems are engaged in very different dynamics, where routine methods and daring, if not risky, practices coexist. The question of the architecture of the internationa ...

Carbon trading have long been touted as a silver bullet to channelise climate finance to African countries lacking the capital to support climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. The erstwhile ‘Kyoto Protocol’ and its successor ‘The Paris Agreement’, though much more comprehensive and wider in scope, both recognize the importance of carbon trading (a form of carbon pricing) in combatting climate change, and in the Paris Agreement the same is enshrined under Article 6 and its sub-c ...

President Biden's announcement of new tariffs on China, though not economically significant on its own, symbolizes the deepening decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies. These tariffs, supported by both major political parties, represent the latest step in a broader strategy that favors policy interventions over traditional free-market principles and aims to protect domestic workers, maintain technological leadership, and prioritize economic security. This policy brief discusse ...

As the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) enters its fifth year, the rules of origin for trade in goods are still being finalised, but the institutional architecture is nearly complete with increased capacity, technical committees and new supporting instruments. Despite this progress in AfCFTA ‘policy supply’, meaningful trade under the AfCFTA is still to begin. For this to happen, there must be ‘policy demand’ from the private sector to use the agreement’s range of protoc ...

The issue of environmental degradation represents a significant global challenge. It manifests in various forms, including physical alterations such as air pollution, ozone depletion, climate change, marine pollution and biodiversity loss. These changes are proven to be linked to human activities, such as energy production and consumption, tourism and agriculture. Additionally, factors like population growth and health and safety concerns contribute to environmental decline. Is Gro ...

The writing of this Report started in november 2023 and benefited during six months from the quality of discussions in the Policy center. Paul Isbel, Professor at UM6P, was a relentless proofreader who generously brought his outstanding competence in economy and political economy. Stephen Gardner went beyond his role as linguistic proofreader and showed an admirable understanding of the substance at stake. Under the direct supervision of Professor Abdelaziz Aitali, the Economic Depa ...

Interview with Sara Mokaddem, Manager of the Monitoring and Strategic Analysis Unit at the Policy Center for the New South, conducted by our columnist Helmut Sorge.   Oil tankers, mega cruise ships, and giant container vessels that once moved through secure waterways—the lifelines of global trade—are now menaced by missile and drone attacks, carried out by Houthi forces in Yemen. Meanwhile, pirates are active off the shores of Somalia, and Singapore or Hong Kong flagged vesse ...

Greater female participation in the labor market and in international trade have been recognized as important drivers for economic growth and essential targets in the context of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, achieving both targets simultaneously will be difficult, if not impossible, in most Middle East and North African (MENA) countries without additional policies to eliminate the remarkably high levels of gender inequality in the labor market. I ...

En octobre 2023, la Chine a organisé le 3ème forum de l'Initiative « Ceinture et Route ». Le choix de la date n’était pas anodin, étant donné qu’elle coïncidait avec la célébration du 10ème anniversaire de l'Initiative. Une initiative aux multiples composantes L’Initiative « Ceinture et Route », également connue sous l’acronyme BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), a été initialement conçue pour permettre à la Chine de renforcer ses liens commerciaux avec les Etats ...

La pandémie de la Covid-19 était venue contribuer au ralentissement de la cadence des investissements chinois dans le cadre de l’Initiative Ceinture et Route « Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) ». Entamée dès 2016, cette tendance à la baisse a été accentuée par les tensions géopolitiques et les problèmes internes qui ont affecté l'économie chinoise. Nonobstant ces contre-temps, la Chine a atteint l’un de ses plus grands objectifs : étendre son influence à travers le monde. À l’occasion ...

The debate on global value chains (GVCs) has emphasized countries’ contributions to value-added creation. From an intercountry perspective, a new body of research is addingto this debate by studying how subnational regions contribute to the indicators in specific countries. Proper assessment of economic contributions is essential for designing incentive policies. This paper analyzes the role played by the main trading partners of Moroccan regi ...

This paper was originally published on The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA)Industrialisation is crucial for Africa to improve its standard of living, create productive jobs for its young work force and diversify its exports. ...

Multiple shocks faced by the global economy over the past three years have apparently shaken the conventional wisdom on gains from economic integration, and have sparked widespread calls for protectionist and nationalist policies. Is there already evidence of some ‘deglobalization’, or do the factors that underlie globalization remain strong enough despite the shocks? So far, there are no signs of an overall reversal in the long-term trend of greater global trade integration. Howev ...

The global economic environment has changed as the U.S.—and to a less confrontational degree, the European Union—have clearly established a context of technological rivalry with China. Hindering China’s progress in the sophistication of semiconductor production has become a centerpiece of current U.S. foreign policy. While the U.S. is clearly winning the semiconductor war, the picture is different when it comes to clean-energy technology. Both technology wars overlap with access to ...

If we want to understand the implications for growth—particularly the costs—of moving towards a fractured trading system, we can use as a benchmark what happened during the period of what is usually called hyper-globalization or globalization 2.0. Here, I'll try to highlight the relevant aspects, to use them as a benchmark to shine a light on the costs of increasing fragmentation of the trading system. So, what was hyper-globalization or, as Professor Richard Baldwin from the Genev ...

Cette édition du Rapport économique de l’Afrique est construite autour d’une thématique d’une grande actualité : les conséquences des incertitudes et des risques aussi bien sanitaires que climatiques et sécuritaires sur les économies du continent. L’exercice est d’autant plus légitime que la recomposition de l’ordre mondial questionne la place du continent à l’échelle planétaire, sur les plans économique, social et environnemental. L’économie mondiale est confrontée à des défis glo ...

À  l’approche du Sommet africain du climat (Africa Climate Summit), qui se tiendra à Nairobi du 4 au 6 septembre 2023, de très nombreuses organisations non gouvernementales (ONG) ont écrit au président du Kenya, William Ruto, pour lui faire part de leurs inquiétudes concernant l’ordre du jour de ce sommet. Selon ces ONG, les intérêts des entreprises et des pays occidentaux pourraient prendre le pas sur ceux de l’Afrique. Les vraies priorités sont notamment d’éliminer progressiv ...

Kim Ju-ae, supposed daughter of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, was introduced by her father for the first time to the world and 26.1 million citizens of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) on November 19, 2022. Her first public appearance was unusual: at the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) costing up to $10 million (Los Angeles Times, November 4, 2022). Unlike a DPRK spy satellite launched on May 30, 2023, which broke up in midair before reach ...