Publications /
Policy Brief

Back
Download PDF
Should we worry about the Great Trade Slowdown?
Authors
Uri Dadush
August 25, 2015
Related topics: 
Economy
Trade
Asia

Struggling with slow growth, many countries (advanced and developing), have allowed their currencies to slide against the U.S. dollar. Until recently, China stood out in resisting this trend, and indeed had seen a large appreciation against the US dollar over several years. So many saw its abrupt change of course not only as signaling deep trouble in China but also as opening the door to a bout of destabilizing currency competition. These troubling developments raise two important questions: what caused the great world export slowdown? Does this movement call again for specific steps by policy-makers?

RELATED CONTENT

  • Download PDF
    The Belt and Road turns five
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    Michael Baltensperger
    January 13, 2019
    China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an international trade and development strategy. Launched in 2013, it is one of the ways China asserts its role in world affairs and captures the opportunities of globalisation. The BRI has the potential to enhance development prospects across the world and in China, but that potential might not be realised because the BRI’s objectives are too broad and ill-defined, and its execution is too often non-transparent, lacking in due diligence and ...
  • Quand les grands se fâchent, le monde panique !
    Authors
    Tayeb Ghazi
    August 13, 2018
    Depuis la fin de l’année 2017, le président Donald Trump mène plusieurs batailles commerciales, contre différents partenaires, sous prétextes de sauver des emplois industriels américains et de réduire le déficit commercial des États-Unis. S’il est difficile de se prononcer sur les effets des combats commerciaux amorcés par le président Trump, l’importance des opposants et des échanges pour l’économie mondiale en fait une source de risque pour la croissance, les emplois et les prix à ...
  • Food Security in Morocco and India: Different Challenges for Joint Answers?
    Authors
    Ihssane Guennoun
    August 1, 2018
    “This article has been originally published in 'Morocco in Focus 2018,' the magazine of the Moroccan Embassy in New Delhi, India on the occasion of the Morocco National Day 2018.” Introduction In an article published last year, the author stressed the role of partnership between Morocco and India for the inclusive growth of small farmers. There is no doubt that agriculture remains a major instrument for human development both in India and in Africa. Several international reports h ...
  • Chinese Trash Refusal and its Consequences: A Wake-up Call for the World
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    August 1, 2018
    “A WAKE UP CALL FOR THE WORLD” For Simon Elin, chief executive of the British Recycling Association, it’s “a tough time” his industry and country are facing just now. He does not think about Brexit, Britain trying to leave the E.U., dreaming to return to glorious times as a world power, one day soon. His colleague Arnaud Brunet, head of the Bureau of International Recycling, predicted “catastrophic environmental problems.” An assessment the London Times shared: “The world is drowni ...
  • Four Dangerous Illusions about the Looming Trade War
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    July 10, 2018
    Historians often offer different interpretations of the events that have shaped our destiny, yet, with respect to World War 2, the bloodiest conflict in history, they seem to concur on two points. First, that those yearning for peace underestimated the National Socialists’ determination to wage a war of conquest until it was far too late to deter them, and, second, that Nazi Germany failed to anticipate that Britain, the United States, and the Soviet Union – each of which it provok ...
  • Argentina, Turkey and the May Storm in Emerging Markets
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    June 6, 2018
    The spike in US bond yields since mid-April in tandem with the strengthening of the dollar sparked a retrenchment of capital flows to emerging markets (EM), accompanied by a sell-off of assets in some cases. Argentina and Turkey suffered from strong and potentially disruptive exchange rate depreciation pressures in May, with financial markets calming down only after bold domestic policy moves (interest rate hikes in both countries and, in the case of Argentina, a decision to seek a ...
  • Download PDF
    Our Trade Tensions Will Persist Beyond Trump
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    May 15, 2018
    Technology and inequality, China's special status, macroeconomic imbalances, and WTO dysfunction, are the challenges confronted by the world trading system, and which lie at the root of resurgent protectionism. Are the trade tensions that have been stoked by Trump unique to him or the outcome of forces that preceded him and will outlast him? ...
  • China, Oil, and the Commodity Derivatives Market
    Authors
    Yves Jégourel
    April 16, 2018
    The launch of an oil futures contract on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) cannot be merely seen as a “technical” or secondary event, as it foreshadows what global commodities markets will become in a few years. The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) have, indeed, seen their trading volumes increase significantly over the past decade thanks to steel and iron ore, which could suggest that the move is, in fact, not that unprecedente ...
  • La Chine, le pétrole et les marchés dérivés de matières premières
    Authors
    Yves Jégourel
    April 10, 2018
    Le lancement d’un contrat à terme pétrolier sur le Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) ne saurait être vu comme un évènement « technique » ou secondaire tant il préfigure ce que seront dans quelques années les marchés mondiaux de matières premières. Le Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) et le Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ont certes vu leurs volumes de trading augmenter considérablement sur la dernière décennie grâce à l’acier et au minerai de fer, ce qui pourrait laisser à ...
  • Download PDF
    ٢٠١٨ ملامح منعرج للإقتصاد العالمي : أوربا تستيقظ و اسيا ترسخ موقعها
    Authors
    Fathallah Oualalou
    February 21, 2018
    تعتبر 2018 بلا شك نقطة تحول في تطور الاقتصاد العالمي. أوروبا، بعد أن بدأت في الخروج من الأزمة في عام 2017 ، من المرجح أن تدخل مرحلة نمو قوي ومستدام بفضل الزيادة الهيكلية في الإنت°اج الصناعي، إضافة الى الانعكاسات الإيجابي°ة للمشروع الإصلاحي المؤيد لأوروبا موحدة الذي يحمله الثن°ائي الفرنسي الألماني. كما ان آسيا تستمر في تأكيد مكانتها كمحرك رئيسي للاقتصاد العالمي، حيث اصبحت ثلاثة بلدان من اسيا )الصين واليابان والهند( تنتمي لقائمة أكبر خمسة اقتصادات عالمية في عام 2018 . هذه التطورات تدف ...