Publications /
Policy Brief

Back
Should we worry about the Great Trade Slowdown?
Authors
August 25, 2015

Struggling with slow growth, many countries (advanced and developing), have allowed their currencies to slide against the U.S. dollar. Until recently, China stood out in resisting this trend, and indeed had seen a large appreciation against the US dollar over several years. So many saw its abrupt change of course not only as signaling deep trouble in China but also as opening the door to a bout of destabilizing currency competition. These troubling developments raise two important questions: what caused the great world export slowdown? Does this movement call again for specific steps by policy-makers?

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    March 8, 2016
    Along with phosphorus and nitrogen, potash constitutes one of the three nutrients used in the production of fertilizers. Although the factors that influence its demand are mostly common to other fertilizers and in large part determined by the agricultural market conditions, its supply depends on specific factors. Long known to be controlled by two production and export cartels, the potash market experienced a major change in 2013 with the end of the RussianBelarusian agreement. In a ...
  • Authors
    December 14, 2015
    The end of supply chain is the natural corollary of the sustained price fall of virtually all commodities observed over the past many months. If it appears premature to state exactly what is the impact of this deconsolidation in the commodities value chain, it is believed that the strategic role of physical trading is strengthening. Under such circumstances, the industrial strategies of developing countries and commodity exporters may have to evolve and, in priority, foster optimizi ...
  • Authors
    John Seaman
    October 20, 2015
    Le présent article examine les efforts déployés par la Chine pour s’assurer l’accès à des ressources naturelles provenant de l’étranger en quantités toujours plus importantes. Dans sa quête de ressources nécessaires pour alimenter son économie, la Chine cherche-t-elle à encourager le développement des marchés internationaux ou plutôt à s’approvisionner en ressources de façon plus mercantiliste ? L’attitude variable de la Chine sur un large éventail de marchés des ressources suggère ...
  • Authors
    August 25, 2015
    Struggling with slow growth, many countries (advanced and developing), have allowed their currencies to slide against the U.S. dollar. Until recently, China stood out in resisting this trend, and indeed had seen a large appreciation against the US dollar over several years. So many saw its abrupt change of course not only as signaling deep trouble in China but also as opening the door to a bout of destabilizing currency competition. These troubling developments raise two important q ...
  • Authors
    July 27, 2015
    The Chinese stock markets have been recently affected by plummeting indexes and high volatility. The substantial level of “mom and pop” speculators has been identified as one of the reason for these dynamics. Although there is no speculative bubble at the moment, we may question the impact of potential excessive trading on the promising future of Chinese commodity exchanges. ...
  • Authors
    Eckart Woertz
    April 10, 2015
    1970s : Oil and wheat are strategic commodities, their prices are skyrocketing, Arab countries declare an oil boycott against the US and the US contemplates to retaliate with a grain embargo. Gulf countries are alarmed and look into a plan to develop Sudan as an Arab breadbasket.  This plan, however, unravels by the 1980s amidst political instability, misguided project designs and alleged corruption amongst the Sudanese (Nimeiri) regime. Instead, Saudi Arabia embarks on a subsidize ...
  • Authors
    February 10, 2015
    Manufacturing is declining as a share of GDP not only in advanced countries, but in developing countries as well. This new trend, a result of complex forces, should be seen on balance as a reason for development-optimism, not pessimism. In the 21st century economy, manufacturing remains important, but poor countries can attract investment, grow rapidly and diversify away from agriculture on the basis of many possible sources of comparative advantage, without artificially promoting m ...
  • Authors
    January 30, 2015
    “In my view, China’s very high rates of saving and of investment in infrastructure, plant and equipment, Rand D, and human capital should be seen more as a source of strength, than of weakness. There has, of course, been overinvestment in some sectors, such as heavy industry and housing in some regions, but China’s GDP and infrastructure stock per capita is still just a fraction of that of the most advanced countries, and the country’s potential to catch-up remains largely unexploit ...
  • Authors
    Françoise Nicolas
    January 1, 2011
    La montée en puissance de la Chine et de l’Inde domine les débats économiques depuis quelques années déjà. Poursuivant une stratégie d’internationalisation résolue, les entreprises chinoises et indiennes sont désormais présentes dans bon nombre de régions du globe. Ce dynamisme n’a pas manqué de susciter des inquiétudes mais aussi des espoirs, notamment dans le monde en développement, où ces deux pays sont perçus comme des partenaires potentiellement plus bienveillants que les pays ...
  • From

    23
    4:30 pm February 2022
    Les hostilités commerciales entre la Chine et les États-Unis, qui se sont intensifiées sous la présidence de D. Trump et qui se sont poursuivies sous l'administration américaine actuelle, marquent un tournant dans la libéralisation de l'économie mondiale depuis la fin de la Seconde Guerre mondiale. Le système commercial mondial est en ruine en raison de cette guerre commerciale, ainsi que du démantèlement du processus de règlement des différends de l'Organisation mondiale du commerce et des violations fréquentes des règles par ses membres. Cependant le système commercial d'après-guerre ne touche pas à sa fin ; il évolue plutôt vers un ensemble d'interactions commerciales plus compliquées, politiques et controversées. La nouvelle structure sera très probablement basée sur une O ...