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Les services peuvent-ils remplacer l'industrie manufacturière dans les économies en développement ?
Authors
Hinh T. Dinh
Karim El Aynaoui
April 29, 2026
Related topics: 
Economy
Sectorial policies and structural transformation
Labour market and human capital

Cette chronique a été initialement publiée sur le site lesechos.fr

 

Les économies en développement font face à un double défi : créer des emplois à grande échelle tout en soutenant la productivité. Quels types de services permettent cette convergence ? Les économistes Hinh T. Dinh et Karim El Aynaoui répondent dans la chronique du « Cercle des économistes ».

Les services peuvent-ils se substituer à l'industrie manufacturière comme moteur du développement économique ? Longtemps, la question ne se posait guère. L'industrie constituait la voie éprouvée : elle absorbait une main-d'oeuvre peu qualifiée issue de l'agriculture, stimulait la productivité et fondait les chaînes d'approvisionnement permettant à des économies entières de se transformer. Les services suivaient, comme un sous-produit de l'industrialisation.

Cette logique est aujourd'hui bousculée. L'automatisation et l'intensification de la concurrence mondiale rendent le développement tiré par l'industrie plus difficile à réaliser à grande échelle. Dans l'ensemble des économies en développement, de nombreux pays connaissent une désindustrialisation précoce, avant même d'en avoir tiré parti. « L'escalator » manufacturier s'est rétréci.

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