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Iran/Etats-Unis : L’assassinat de Soulaimani, pas de quoi générer une guerre
Authors
Abdelhak Bassou
January 17, 2020
Related topics: 
International Relations
Security & Defense
MENA

Ce papier tente, aux vues de l’état actuel des relations entre les Etats-Unis et l’Iran et des conjonctures qui traversent la région et le monde d’aujourd’hui, de prospecter les pistes d’évolution de la tension ambiante. S’achemine-t-on vers une guerre ? Quels en seront les acteurs ? Quelle en seraient la nature et les limites et, surtout, quels en seraient les impacts, sur la région et sur le monde ?

Les réactions sont jusqu’à présent mitigées et se limitent aux formules diplomatiques consacrées, appelant à la maîtrise de soi et à la modération. De Moscou à Berlin, on appelle à la temporisation avec un timide parti pris pour l’un ou l’autre des antagonistes. Certaines parties du monde gardent le silence. Mais, si les événements venaient à se précipiter et si le conflit prenait des allures plus dangereuses, les neutralités résisteraient-elles ? Irait-on vers un conflit plus généralisé ? Qui soutiendrait l’Iran ? Qui soutiendrait les Etats-Unis?

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