The Iran War: The International System under the Trump Shock and a New Regionalization of Globalization

In this policy paper – Part 3 of our ongoing analysis – we address the Iran War and its implications for the evolution of the international system in its denouement from the clash between “Restoration”, on the one hand, and “Reformation” or “Revolution”, on the other (see our previous policy paper for a summary and analysis of Andrey Kortunov’s scenarios for the future of the international system). These rival global dynamics are faced off in this moment across the Strait of Hormuz – but also across the old mythical geopolitical faultline that runs along the Eastern European edge of the “Great Eurasian Heartland”, epitomized today by the Ukraine-Russia war. This policy paper also provides a deeper analysis of the first of two possible eventualities stemming from Kortunov’s third scenario (“Revolution”) – what we will refer to as Kortunov’s Sub-Scenario 3A: War. We will then proceed in the next policy paper – Part 4 of this analysis – to address the resulting prospects for the future of the Atlantic Basin (i.e. Sub-Scenario 3B: A New “Regionalization of Globalization”).