AD 2021: The China-US Trade War: When Will it End?

November 17, 2021

The escalating US-China trade tensions has resulted in the rise of two separate spheres of influence in both trade and technology and contributed to reshaping the global trade landscape. In order to de-escalate the conflict, the two hegemonies signed the Phase One trade deal in January 2020. Amid the COVID-19 outbreak that undermined trade flows worldwide, China managed however to purchase around 60% of the committed amount for trade in goods in the Phase One deal. The main goal of US in addressing trade imbalances with China was offset with the increasing trade deficits with other industrial countries such as EU, Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico. The aim of this session is to answer some critical questions related to the US-China trade prospects. Given the different episodes of uncertainty, including the COVID-19 outbreak, what are the urgent areas of collaboration between the US and China? What are the shortcomings of Phase One trade deal and the expectations of Phase Two deal? What might be the optimal alternative approach to purchase commitments in managing the trade imbalances? As the Biden administration is not inclined to immediately review the US policy toward China, what will be the consequences of maintaining tariffs in 2021 on both economies? The deep intertwining of the EU economies, the US and China implies that the trade war is having spillover effects that go beyond the imposed tariffs on China. What are the different implications for the EU in the context of the current crisis? Moderator: Steve Clemons, Editor at Large, The Hill Speakers: - Uri Dadush, Senior Fellow, Policy Center for the New South - Renato Flores, Director, International Intelligence Unit, Fundaçao Getulio Vargas, Brazil - Anabel Gonzalez, Deputy Director-General, World Trade Organization - Adam Posen, President, Peterson Institute for International Economics, USA

Speakers
Uri Dadush
Non-Resident Senior Fellow
Uri Dadush was a Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, where he served as Senior Fellow from its founding in 2014 until 2022. He is Research Professor at the School of Public Policy, University of Maryland and a non-resident scholar at Bruegel. He is based in Washington, DC, and is Principal of Economic Policy International, LLC, providing consulting services to the World Bank and to other international organizations as well as corporations. Previously, he served as Director of the International Economics Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and, at the World Bank, was Director of the International Trade, Economic Policy, and Development Prospects Departments. In the private sector before that he was President of the Economist Intelligence ...

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    Paul Isbell
    October 9, 2026
    In the first seven Policy Briefs of this ongoing series of analysis on Pan-Atlanticism: The Atlantic Basin in a Multipolar-Transnational World, we developed the argument that the strategic significance of the Atlantic Basin is on the rise for a range of international actors (states, regions and non-state agents) and from distinct political or ideological perspectives. In addition, in the most recently published Policy Brief -- “The U.S. and the Current International Reconfiguration: ...
  • Authors
    Marie-Noelle Nwokolo
    October 6, 2026
    The author of this opinion, Marie-Noelle Nwokolo, is a 2024 alumna of the Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Program.In September 1978, delegations from 138 countries gathered in Buenos Aires, Argentina, around a powerful idea: developing countries had knowledge, experience and capabilities worth sharing with one another. The Buenos Aires Plan of Action gave institutional form to what we now call South-South Cooperation, part of a wider post-colonial effort by developing ...
  • October 02, 2026
    Building on his Policy Brief "Latin America, World Politics and the Great Powers", Nizar Messari examines how recent developments are reshaping U.S. influence in the region and affecting ...
  • Authors
    September 23, 2026
    Depuis 2010, environ, on sait que la Méditerranée orientale est une nouvelle province gazière. Des ressources gazières ont en effet été découvertes au large de quatre pays ou territoires, l’Égypte, Israël, Chypre et Gaza. Deux d’entre eux sont devenus producteurs et exportateurs de gaz naturel, l’Égypte et Israël. Au large de Gaza, le champ gazier de Gaza Marine n’a jamais été développé et il est très peu probable qu’il le soit prochainement en raison des très fortes tensions entre ...
  • Authors
    September 23, 2026
    Since around 2010, it has been known that the Eastern Mediterranean is a new gas province. Gas resources have indeed been discovered offshore four countries or territories: Egypt, Israel, Cyprus and Gaza. Two of them have become producers and exporters of natural gas, Egypt and Israel. Off the coast of Gaza, the Gaza Marine gas field has never been developed, and it is highly unlikely to be developed anytime soon given the very high tensions between the State of Israel and Hamas. By ...
  • Authors
    Luladay Berhanu Mengistie
    Guillaume Gérout Suominen
    September 21, 2026
    The African Union Summit of February 2026 instructed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Council of Ministers to negotiate a Protocol on Industrial Policy and Development. This work, handled without adequate preparation, is likely to reproduce the weaknesses it is meant to remedy. This paper is a conceptual mapping exercise, written to raise the preparatory questions before drafting begins, rather than to prescribe outcomes.It proceeds in five sections:1. It works towar ...
  • Authors
    September 17, 2026
    Various competing cross-border payment networks have become vehicles for geopolitical competition. As tensions have risen, many countries want to secure access to cross-border payment systems by joining with like-minded countries to form interoperable networks, either via tokenization or Instant Payment Systems (IPSs). Three major projects are under development, serving the strategic interests of the US, China and the Rest of the World—corresponding to the three trading spheres taki ...
  • Authors
    Andy Sumner
    Stephan Klingebiel
    September 4, 2026
    This Paper was originally published on cgdev.org. Escalatory attacks on multilateral rules and institutions in this era of raw power politics have plunged international politics into uncharted territory. Traditional alliances have been fractured and new partnerships between unlikely bedfellows are emerging. No longer in transition, the post-World War II world order is in rupture. This paper examines international cooperation under these conditions and argues that a new "flexi-l ...
  • August 25, 2026
    Predictions of American decline have become increasingly prevalent. The United States has run persistent trade deficits for decades, but its public debt now exceeds its annual economic output. Meanwhile, and new centers of industrial and technological power continue to emerge across Asia. Yet despite these developments, no country has so far replaced the United States as the main organizing power of the international economy. Conventional explanations explain this in terms of U.S. m ...
  • Authors
    Meryam Amarir
    August 13, 2026
    Les crises récentes au Moyen-Orient, notamment les attaques ciblant les navires commerciaux en mer Rouge et les tensions autour du détroit d'Ormuz, ont mis en évidence la vulnérabilité des principaux corridors stratégiques du commerce mondial. Plus qu'un bouleversement de l'organisation des échanges, elles accélèrent une transformation déjà engagée, fondée sur la recherche de chaînes de connectivité plus résilientes, la diversification des itinéraires commerciaux et le développement ...