AD 2021: The China-US Trade War: When Will it End?

November 17, 2021

The escalating US-China trade tensions has resulted in the rise of two separate spheres of influence in both trade and technology and contributed to reshaping the global trade landscape. In order to de-escalate the conflict, the two hegemonies signed the Phase One trade deal in January 2020. Amid the COVID-19 outbreak that undermined trade flows worldwide, China managed however to purchase around 60% of the committed amount for trade in goods in the Phase One deal. The main goal of US in addressing trade imbalances with China was offset with the increasing trade deficits with other industrial countries such as EU, Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico. The aim of this session is to answer some critical questions related to the US-China trade prospects. Given the different episodes of uncertainty, including the COVID-19 outbreak, what are the urgent areas of collaboration between the US and China? What are the shortcomings of Phase One trade deal and the expectations of Phase Two deal? What might be the optimal alternative approach to purchase commitments in managing the trade imbalances? As the Biden administration is not inclined to immediately review the US policy toward China, what will be the consequences of maintaining tariffs in 2021 on both economies? The deep intertwining of the EU economies, the US and China implies that the trade war is having spillover effects that go beyond the imposed tariffs on China. What are the different implications for the EU in the context of the current crisis? Moderator: Steve Clemons, Editor at Large, The Hill Speakers: - Uri Dadush, Senior Fellow, Policy Center for the New South - Renato Flores, Director, International Intelligence Unit, Fundaçao Getulio Vargas, Brazil - Anabel Gonzalez, Deputy Director-General, World Trade Organization - Adam Posen, President, Peterson Institute for International Economics, USA

Speakers
Uri Dadush
Non-Resident Senior Fellow
Uri Dadush is non-resident Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, where he served as Senior Fellow from its founding in 2014 until 2022. He is Research Professor at the School of Public Policy, University of Maryland and a non-resident scholar at Bruegel. He is based in Washington, DC, and is Principal of Economic Policy International, LLC, providing consulting services to the World Bank and to other international organizations as well as corporations. Previously, he served as Director of the International Economics Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and, at the World Bank, was Director of the International Trade, Economic Policy, and Development Prospects Departments. In the private sector before that he was President of the Economist Int ...

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    Michael Baltensperger
    January 13, 2019
    China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an international trade and development strategy. Launched in 2013, it is one of the ways China asserts its role in world affairs and captures the opportunities of globalisation. The BRI has the potential to enhance development prospects across the world and in China, but that potential might not be realised because the BRI’s objectives are too broad and ill-defined, and its execution is too often non-transparent, lacking in due diligence and ...
  • December 13, 2018
    Moderator John Yearwood, Executive Board, International Press Institute Speakers Uri Dadush, Senior Fellow, Policy Center for the New South Anabel Gonzalez, Former Minister of Foreign Trade, Republic of Costa Rica Ricardo Meléndez-Ortiz, Founder and Chief Executive, International Centre...
  • December 13, 2018
    Moderator John Yearwood, Executive Board, International Press Institute Speakers Uri Dadush, Senior Fellow, Policy Center for the New South Anabel Gonzalez, Former Minister of Foreign Trade, Republic of Costa Rica Ricardo Meléndez-Ortiz, Founder and Chief Executive, International Centre...
  • Authors
    Axel Berger
    Andreas Freytag
    Simon J. Evenett
    Christian von Haldenwang
    Ricardo Meléndez-Ortiz
    Raul Ochoa
    Agustin Redonda
    Karl P. Sauvant
    November 26, 2018
    *The recommendations put forth below have been published, both print and online, in the Financial Times.  The leaders of the G20 will meet on 30 November and 1 December in Buenos Aires for their annual summit. They need to acknowledge that the last two years have been characterized by strong headwinds for the world economy. This time, however, it is not a mixture of poor macroeconomic policies and bad business decisions – as in 2008 when they met in Washington for their first summi ...
  • Authors
    Sabine Cessou
    October 8, 2018
    « Amérique latine, crises et sorties de crises », telle était la première des deux thématiques des 6èmes Dialogues stratégiques, organisés le 4 avril par HEC Paris (Centre de géopolitique) et OCP Policy Center. Un tableau mitigé a été dressé, avec des signes de reprise et une croissance supérieure à 2 % qui n’empêchent pas des situations de crise comme au Brésil, au Nicaragua ou au Vénézuela. Crise d’un modèle d’oligarchies anti-capitalistes Au Vénézuela, la corruption paraît si e ...
  • Authors
    Anabel Gonzalez
    August 30, 2018
    The agreement establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a framework to create a free trade area across the region, bringing together the 55 members of the African Union into a continental market with a cumulative Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeding US$2.2 trillion and a total population of over one billion people. When concluded and successfully implemented, it will become the largest free trade area in the world in terms of membership, opening up significa ...
  • August 1, 2018
    “This article has been originally published in 'Morocco in Focus 2018,' the magazine of the Moroccan Embassy in New Delhi, India on the occasion of the Morocco National Day 2018.” Introduction In an article published last year, the author stressed the role of partnership between Morocco and India for the inclusive growth of small farmers. There is no doubt that agriculture remains a major instrument for human development both in India and in Africa. Several international reports h ...
  • Authors
    May 31, 2018
    Salutations Thank you for the invitation to address the 2018 Africa Think Tank Summit  in this memorable city of Rabat. I thank in particular, the OCP Policy Center and the Think Tank and Civil Societies Program of the University of Pennsylvania for hosting the Summit with the theme “Deepening Expertise and Enhancing Sustainability: Insight into Contemporary Challenges Facing African Think Tanks”. Rabat, Morocco has been the sprouting ground of numerous agenda-setting instruments ...
  • May 21, 2018
    Le partenariat Afrique Europe fait son chemin depuis l'adoption de la stratégie commune Afrique-UE et la négociation complexe des Accords de Partenariat Economiques. L’évaluation des volets commercial, financier et humain de ces relations multidimensionnelles fait ressortir la persistance de grands déséquilibres dans les échanges commerciaux de biens et services, des tensions dans la gestion de la mobilité humaine et des dysfonctionnements dans les mécanismes institutionnels de part ...
  • Authors
    Bouchra Rahmouni
    April 5, 2018
    Depuis la création de l’OMC, l’économie mondiale a enregistré deux évolutions majeures : la mise en place des chaînes de valeur globales et la conclusion de méga-accords commerciaux régionaux (Accord transatlantique Europe-États-Unis, Accord de Partenariat Transpacifique entre l’Amérique du Nord et une dizaine de pays asiatiques, partenariat unique total entre l’ASEAN, la Chine, le Japon et la Corée du Sud, plus la partie océanique). Le commerce intra-régional n’est plus une simple ...