Publications /
Policy Brief

Back
The Fall of Kabul and the Taliban 2.0
August 24, 2021

The Taliban movement took control of Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, without confrontation or resistance, as soon as the president, Ashraf Ghani, fled the country. Afghan forces were not able to face the Taliban, despite of the fact that Taliban was technically outnumbered and outgunned by Afghan government forces.
The New American administration first priority is to make US military mission in Afghanistan conclude by August 31st. Biden believes that the mission US army in Afghanistan have achieved their objectives. ( to get the terrorists who attacked us on 9/11 and to deliver justice to Osama Bin Laden, and to degrade the terrorist threat to keep Afghanistan from becoming a base from which attacks could be continued against the United States).

The quick and easy access of Taliban to Kabul and The scenes at Kabul’s airport are eerily reminiscent of the American departure from Saigon in 1975
Does the Taliban have the sophistication and experience to successfully govern in Afghanistan?
The Taliban movement is trying to adjust itself to new non-fighting duties (supervising talks, negotiating posts, adapting regulations, organizing traffic, securing the mobility of foreigners and to Kabul airport, securing foreign embassies, and other obligations that Taliban fighters were unfamiliar.

The Taliban movement faces major challenges, foremost of which is winning the hearts of a new generation of Afghans born and raised in an urban space in which the Taliban did not contribute, and then winning the trust of the international community, which uses the card of acknowledgment of legitimacy to compel the movement to accept a number of concessions that distance it from its own identity. And finally, the responsibility of Taliban to preserve the country's security and unity.

Afghanistan will witness in the coming weeks increased interactions, whether about the design of a new governing administration, the preservation of security in various regions of the country, or by confronting Western media campaigns that try to undermine the Taliban’s reputation and credibility. However, it is also expected that the Taliban will strengthen their talks with Washington to secure a peaceful withdraw of American forces, as with Russia, Pakistan, and China, and other countries that sent positive messages with the aim of normalizing their relations.
The duties of governance and the political and technical management of public life put the Taliban in front of several challenges. But these challenges might disrupt the dream of rebuilding the Islamic Emirate, as they are obliged to respect their commitments related to restoring confidence among Afghans, reassuring international public opinion, expanding freedoms, reconstructing the economy, and protecting the country from insecurity—it is possible that pockets of resistance. We should acknowledge that relevant analysis to these changes taking place in Afghanistan, requires to take into consideration: ( a) the transformations that occurred in Afghanistan in terms of demography and urbanization (especially the capital, Kabul), ( b) changes experienced by the Taliban movement in terms of its leading figures, its narratives, and its political and military organizational structures, (c) then the shifts of the American foreign policy and national security doctrine over the past two decades.

Certainly, the fall of Kabul in the post-COVID-19 world order coincides with the birth of the new American new era, and a Taliban 2.0 that we need to understand better.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    Bilal Mahli
    October 15, 2024
    This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the role and impact of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), formed in April 2022, in navigating the complexities of Yemen's ongoing civil conflict. The PLC was created to unite various anti-Houthi factions under a single governance framework, with the support of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and to steer Yemen toward peace and stability. However, the PLC has faced numerous obstacles, including internal divisions, resistance from ...
  • Authors
    October 3, 2024
    In an era marked by shifting global dynamics, Africa and the Middle East are experiencing a profound transition from traditional geopolitics to a more nuanced geoeconomic framework. This evolution reflects the growing recognition that economic interests, rather than mere political allegiances, are driving international relations in these regions. The rise of emerging powers, particularly China and other Asian nations, has challenged the long-standing dominance of Western economies, ...
  • Authors
    November 24, 2023
    في 6 أكتوبر 1973 تلقت السلطات الإسرائيلية تحذيرات عن احتمال اندلاع حرب على حدودها مع الدول العربية. هذا التحذير أكد المعلومات التي تم استلامها قبل بضعة أيام، ولكن أصحاب القرار السياسي والاستخبارات في اسرائيل لم يأخذوا الأمر على محمل الجد. حيث تعرضت إسرائيل لهجوم مفاجئ وعرف جيشها حالة من الهلع. وكانت الكارثة. خمسون عاما بعد ذلك، تقريبًا في نفس اليوم، فوجئت إسرائيل بهجوم جديد. في صباح 7 أكتوبر 2023، عبر مئات الرجال مسلحين الحاجز بين إسرائيل وقطاع غزة، انتشروا في أكثر من 20 مكانًا، قت ...
  • Authors
    Sabine Cessou
    May 17, 2022
    Ce thème, abordé au Centre HEC de Géopolitique à Jouy-en-Josas, lors de la 12e édition des Dialogues stratégiques avec le Policy Center for the New South, une rencontre semestrielle, a permis de revenir dans le détail sur cette zone qui relie la Méditerranée à l’océan Indien, à la jointure de trois continents : l’Asie, l’Afrique et l’Europe. Cette route maritime qui s’étend sur plus de 2 200 km, pour une largeur qui varie de 300 km à moins de 30 km entre Djibouti et le Yémen, représ ...
  • May 13, 2022
    Depuis 2016, le Policy Center for the New South et le Centre HEC de Géopolitique organisent chaque année deux éditions des « Dialogues Stratégiques ». Cette plateforme d’analyse et d’échange réunit des experts, des chercheurs provenant de différents think-tanks et du monde académique, d...
  • Authors
    February 22, 2022
    “Once upon a time a classic first line in fairy tales, used by Charles Dickens, for example in his “A Christmas card” in 1843, or Charles Perrault, the French poet, writer of “Cinderella” and “Sleeping Beauty”, both published in 1697 in “histoires ou contes du temp passé” Once upon a time suggests a nostalgic touch, the good old, romantic days glamourized because negative memories are annihilated and deposed in the dustbin of the human mind. Once upon a time, Beirut, the capital ci ...
  • Authors
    January 12, 2022
    Feeble eyesight may hinder you from finding Puntland on a map, the unrecognized Federal member state in Somalia, Khaatumo State, Jubaland, or Somaliland, concerning the planet’s size just large enough to be covered by the shadow of a palm tree. Arab entities surrounded by sun and sand and the Gulf of Aden, Somaliland is surviving as a self-declared nation, located on the southern coast of the Gulf of Aden bordered by Djibouti to the northwest, Ethiopia to the south and west, Somalia ...