Publications /
Policy Paper

Back
Download PDF
Zeitenwende: Germany’s Strategic Shift in Foreign and Security Policy
Authors
Bilal Mahli
September 13, 2024
Related topics: 
International Relations
Security & Defense
Energy transition and Renewables
Europe

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ‘Zeitenwende’ in February 2022 marked a significant shift in German foreign and security policy in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This paper analyzes Germany’s new strategic direction, including increased defense spending, reduced energy dependence on Russia, and strengthened NATO and EU alliances.

It examines the domestic political debates surrounding these changes and their implications for European security dynamics. The study also explores the impact on Germany’s relationships with key partners including France, the United States, and countries of the Global South.

Finally, it offers recommendations for a more coherent, decisive, and strategic German foreign policy.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Download PDF
    The Multiple Costs of the US–Iran War - From Hormuz to Europe and South Asia: the widening economic and political geography of the conflict
    Authors
    Ferid Belhaj
    October 29, 2026
    Wars are decided by those who hold military power, but their costs are increasingly borne by those who have little or no voice in the decisions that start them. The US–Iran war shows this imbalance very clearly. Its economic consequences have gone far beyond the battlefield and have disrupted energy markets, trade routes, food supplies, public finances and investment in the Gulf, Europe, Africa and Asia. The most striking feature of the conflict, however, is not only the size of the ...
  • Download PDF
    Dialogues Stratégiques Volume XX
    Authors
    Niagalé Bagayoko
    Abdelhak Bassou
    Mehdi Benomar
    Eugène Berg
    Pierre Berthelot
    Vincent Campredon
    Christophe Chabert
    Nouzha Chekrouni
    Sabrine Emran
    Mohammed Loulichki
    Fathallah Oualalou
    Alain Oudot De Dainville
    Oussama Tayebi
    Emmanuel Veron
    October 28, 2026
    Bientôt disponible en vente. Cet ouvrage est issu de la 20e édition des Dialogues Stratégiques, organisée le 6 mai 2026. Il s’articule autour de deux thématiques : « Souverainetés critiques : sécuriser les infrastructures essentielles et les ressources stratégiques » et « La Méditerranée : entre coopération régionale et rivalités globales ». La première partie examine les conditions dans lesquelles les États peuvent protéger leurs infrastructures et maitriser leur accès au ...
  • Download PDF
    The ‘Strategic Possibilities Frontier’ of Global Reconfiguration
    Authors
    Paul Isbell
    October 9, 2026
    In the first seven Policy Briefs of this ongoing series of analysis on Pan-Atlanticism: The Atlantic Basin in a Multipolar-Transnational World, we developed the argument that the strategic significance of the Atlantic Basin is on the rise for a range of international actors (states, regions and non-state agents) and from distinct political or ideological perspectives. In addition, in the most recently published Policy Brief -- “The U.S. and the Current International Reconfiguration: ...
  • Download PDF
    From Syria to Libya: Russia’s Adapted Mediterranean Strategy in the Post-Assad Era
    Authors
    Bilal Mahli
    Lina Jaoid
    October 8, 2026
    In the two years since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Russia has restructured its Mediterranean presence. Although Russia’s limited and increasingly conditional access to the Khmeimim and Tartus facilities in Syria has been preserved, its presence in the country has morphed from Assad’s ‘patron-client’ configuration to a more negotiated engagement. Simultaneously, Russia has upgraded its force-projection and logistical infrastructure in eastern Libya, giving it an access path ...
  • Download PDF
    La crisis de Ceuta de julio de 2026: Condiciones estructurales, amplificadores coyunturales y factores desencadenantes
    Authors
    Abdelhak Bassou
    August 13, 2026
    Cuando estalla una crisis, esta da lugar a la activación de reflejos para su gestión y la limitación de sus efectos. Comienzan, entonces, los análisis y las suposiciones sobre las disfunciones, los incumplimientos y las fallas que la ocasionaron. En algunos casos, la teoría de la conspiración se inmiscuye y las hipótesis buscan a los autores que provocaron la crisis, sus designios y sus objetivos. Sin embargo, la teoría de la gestión de crisis nos enseña que una crisis surge según ...
  • Download PDF
    The July 2026 Ceuta Crisis: Structural Conditions, Circumstantial Amplifiers, and Triggering Factors
    Authors
    Abdelhak Bassou
    August 12, 2026
    When a crisis erupts, it sets crisis-management reflexes in motion and prompts efforts to contain its effects. Analysts then begin looking for the malfunctions, oversights, and failures that caused it. In some cases, conspiracy theories creep in, and speculation turns to who engineered the crisis, and to what end. Crisis-management theory teaches us, however, that a crisis unfolds under conditions that favor its emergence. Crises take shape in an environment where latent vulnerabil ...
  • Download PDF
    La crise de Sebta de juillet 2026 : Conditions structurelles, amplificateurs conjoncturels et facteurs déclencheurs
    Authors
    Abdelhak Bassou
    August 11, 2026
    Lorsqu’une crise éclate, elle donne lieu à l’actionnement des réflexes pour sa gestion et la limitation de ses effets. Commencent, alors, les analyses et les suppositions sur les dysfonctionnements, les manquements et les défaillances ayant entrainé ladite crise. Dans certains cas, la théorie du complot s’ingère et les hypothèses cherchent les auteurs ayant provoqué la crise, leurs desseins et leurs buts.Cependant, la théorie de gestion des crises nous apprend qu’une crise inte ...
  • Download PDF
    The United States at 250: A Mediterranean Perspective
    Authors
    Ian O. Lesser
    August 6, 2026
    With America's 250th anniversary, there will be many analyses of the country's history from domestic and international perspectives. But the meaning of the American story should also be assessed in key regional settings, from Asia to Latin America, and in transatlantic terms. In this vein, it is worth exploring the U.S. engagement in and with the Mediterranean world, one of the first places of U.S. international activism, and a setting where diverse aspects of U.S. foreign policy ha ...
  • Vers une conception pragmatique de la souveraineté en Europe mais aussi en Afrique …
    Authors
    Dominique Bocquet
    August 4, 2026
     Cet article a initialement été publié sur la plateforme confrontations.org Février 2022 : face à un nouveau contexte international, les Européens se rallient aux idées de souveraineté européenne et d’autonomie stratégique, brisant ainsi un tabou. Octobre 2025 : après cinquante ans de contentieux, le Conseil de sécurité ouvre la porte à une reconnaissance officielle de la souveraineté marocaine au Sahara occidental.Apparemment sans rapport, ces deux évènements sont reliés ...
  • The Fear of War in Europe - Part 2
    Authors
    Helmut Sorge
    July 27, 2026
    Is Europe Prepared for War?European public opinion is moving from treating a major conflict as unthinkable to regarding it as a possibility for which governments must prepare. Attention is increasingly focused on Russian hybrid operations, vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure and the risk of fragmentation within NATO. European defence policy is consequently undergoing a rapid transition from post-Cold War complacency towards preparations for high-intensity warfare. Recent ...