Should Emerging Markets Worry About the Stock Market Correction?

Without reforms, financial markets’ optimism may crumble – and bring the house down. Judging by the reaction of financial markets, the Brazilian economy started the year at high speed. The real is among the world’s best-performing currencies so far in 2019 and the main stock market index Ibovespa hit a string of record highs leading into last week, when it broke the 97,000-point mark. Future interest rates have fallen sharply.  Foreign investors are buying in as well. The pre ...

L'importance de la stabilité macroéconomique et financière pour l'amélioration à long terme des niveaux de vie a conduit à un profond renouvellement de l'analyse macroéconomique dans les pays en développement, tant sur le plan analytique qu'empirique. Pour la première fois, le présent ouvrage fournit au public francophone un traitement approfondi et rigoureux des questions actuelles liées à l'analyse et à la gestion macroéconomique dans ces pays. Cette macroéconomie du développemen ...

The current market turmoil that began on Wall Street worries policy makers in emerging markets, who fear bad consequences on the economic expansion. Since the global economy’s fundamentals remain strong, this fear seem unjustified. However, there are some other risks originating in the United States, namely protectionism and fiscal deficits, which may significantly darken the economic outlook in 2019 and beyond. ...

The continuous and reinforced process of accumulating physical capital, in which Morocco has embarked since the early 2000s, has helped to preserve the stability of the fundamental equilibrium and cushion the economy from various external and exogenous shocks. However, these accumulation efforts have not led to a significant increase in productivity gains or to an accelerated transformation of the productive base. This Policy Brief aims to describe the underpinnings of the capital a ...

Le processus continu et renforcé de l’accumulation du capital physique, dans lequel s’est engagé le Maroc depuis le début des années 2000, a permis de préserver la stabilité des équilibres fondamentaux et d’amortir les différents chocs exogènes, aussi bien internes qu’externes. Cependant, cet effort d’accumulation n’a pas permis d’insuffler un accroissement significatif des gains de productivité et d’accélérer la transformation de la base productive. Ce Policy Brief propose de décri ...

Le présent ouvrage se propose d’apporter quelques éléments d’appui supplémentaires aux policy-makers pour une meilleure identification des défaillances des marchés au Maroc et une mise en place d’une stratégie de diversification et une politique industrielle efficientes, sans toutefois tomber dans la situation inverse où une stratégie mal définie et des outils mal choisis peuvent se traduire par une défaillance des politiques publiques. L’appréhension des difficultés qu’éprouve l’é ...

Brazil has been suffering from anemic productivity growth. This is a major challenge because in the long run, sustained productivity increases are necessary to underpin inclusive economic growth. Without them, increases in real labor earnings tend to conflict with global competitiveness; collecting taxes in order to fund government expenditures on infrastructure and social policies becomes a heavy burden; returns to private investment becomes harder to achieve; and ultimately c ...

The pace of global growth has tapered off since the crisis and the ensuing rebound. The concept of ‘secular stagnation’ was first used in 1938 by Alvin Hanson in reference to the American economy during the Great Depression. It refers to a situation where growth is slow over a protracted period, underemployment prevails and inflation is low. In such situations, the propensity to save tends to increase as a result of uncertainty and pessimism, and liquidity – which depends on interba ...

Guinea’s bauxite, Moroccan phosphates, Nigerian Bonny Light, Zambian copper, Côte d'Ivoire’s cocoa, Ethiopian coffee or Madagascar’s vanilla: all are examples demonstrating that raw materials have a dimension that is as global as it is local. Global by the markets on which they are traded, local by their quality, a key element of their price, and their macroeconomic impact, particularly for Africa. In line with the 2016 CyclOpe report, which celebrates three decades of existence thi ...