Publications /
Policy Brief

Back
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam : Between the Burdens of Sovereignty and the Constraints of Neighborhood
August 17, 2020

Against the backdrop of mutual accusations of a lack of political will to bring the tripartite negotiations on the commissioning of the “Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam” (GERD), to a successful conclusion, Egypt and Ethiopia continue to alternately send signals of provocation and appeasement. This tension is growing in intensity as the rainy season (July to September) draws nearer. On the one hand, Ethiopia intends to seize this opportunity to fill the dam; on the other hand, Egypt and Sudan consider the conclusion of a final and binding agreement as a precondition. While Egypt, for which the Nile is a matter of life and death, claims “historic rights” on the waters of the Nile in accordance with the 1929 and 1959 Agreements, Ethiopia, which does not consider itself bound by these instruments, claims its sovereign right to exploit its natural resources for the benefit of its socio-economic development. In this crisis, Sudan is trying to play a role of appeasement and rapprochement to avoid having to take sides with one or the other neighbor. In order to avoid an escalation that could lead to open conflict, the three countries have embarked on a negotiation process that has been going on since 2011, when the GERD was launched. This process, which has made significant progress, has now reached an impasse. According to the Sudanese mediator, the June 2020 meetings between the three countries have resulted in trade-offs being reached on 95% of the outstanding issues. The remaining points concern the duration of filling (5 to 7 years, according to Addis-Ababa, or 12 to 20, for Egypt), the dispute settlement mechanism, the nature of the legal framework in which the agreed arrangements will be recorded and the presence of Egyptian observers at the dam site to supervise the implementation of the Final Agreement. The Security Council meeting on 29 June, at the request of Egypt, and the Summit organized on 27 June by the current Chairperson of the African Union succeeded in bringing the three countries back to the negotiating table. The next three weeks offer a last chance for the parties to reach a full and final settlement and open a new page of cooperation in the tumultuous history of relations between these two former Empires. Such an agreement could set a precedent for other similar situations. It could, for example, serve as a source of inspiration for the nine states of the Congo River, to make their Basin, whose potential is greater than that of the Nile, a vector of development for the entire region.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    August 4, 2023
    Twenty-Four Hours June 23-24, 2023. Over those days, Russia, the sanctioned world power, was not destabilized by the nuclear enemy in Washington, but by one man, who made his wealth serving food to school children and soldiers. A caterer who attempted a revolution. A bald man, who apparently wore wigs during his days off, as the Russian secret police claimed to have discovered when they searched his home in St Petersburg. The photos of the wig-wearing Yevgeny Prigozhin were shown o ...
  • May 24, 2023
    La création, par l’ONU, en 2006, du Conseil des droits de l’Homme (CDH) et la mise en place, une année après, de l'Examen périodique universel (EPU), ont constitué une avancée significative dans le processus de promotion de la protection des droits de l'Homme dans le monde. Désormais, et sans aucune distinction, tous les États sont régulièrement assujettis à cet examen qui couvre l’ensemble des droits individuels et collectifs ainsi que les libertés fondamentales consacrés par les I ...
  • April 25, 2023
    بمناسبة اليوم الدولي للتعددية والدبلوماسية من أجل السلام، قررنا تخصيص الحلقة إلى إفريقيا ومبدأ تعددية الاطراف في سياق اوضاع السلم والأمن الهشة في منطقة الساحل وانتشار عدم الاستقرار في البحيرات الافريقية الكبرى، بالإضافة إلى عجز مجلس الأمن التابع للأمم المتحدة عن مواجهة الحرب المستمرة ال...
  • April 14, 2023
    Geographical proximity, historical ties, and cultural and social exchanges largely account for Italy’s enduring engagement with the Maghreb. Abdessalam Jaldi, International Relations Spec ...
  • April 10, 2023
    This policy paper examines India’s growing engagement in North Africa, focusing on five countries: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. Despite lacking a distinct regional policy for North Africa, India has amplified its bilateral engagement with these countries, underpinned by a steadfast commitment to the principle of South-South cooperation. Through its strategic moves in North Africa, India has established a powerful southern-west axis for its foreign policy that stretch ...
  • Authors
    March 6, 2023
    J’ai suivi depuis les années soixante, avec plus ou moins d’intérêt, plus ou moins de passion, presque toutes les élections, présidentielles, parlementaires ou locales, qui se sont succédées en France. Il y eut des séquences et des épisodes fameux que l’histoire, à la fois la grande et la petite, a retenus. De nombreux analystes et acteurs continuent de s’y référer. De toutes ces élections, celles qui se sont déroulées en 2022 sont celles qui ont fait le plus souffrir, de nombreux ...
  • Authors
    January 27, 2023
    La Résolution adoptée à une majorité imposante par les élus européens à Strasbourg le 10 juin 2021 sur « la violation de la Convention des Nations unies relative aux droits de l'enfant et l'instrumentalisation des mineurs par les autorités dans la crise migratoire à Ceuta » (2021/2747/CRSP), ne pouvait que faire date. Décrypter la Résolution La Résolution avait choqué les Marocains au point qu'elle a été rapidement mise de côté sur le moment, comme si on voulait l'oublier le plus ...
  • Authors
    September 12, 2022
    Les responsables des États du Maghreb aimaient donner en exemple l’expérience de la Corée du Sud : ils semblaient signifier que grâce à ses périodes autoritaires elle a pu accéder au développement économique, voire à la puissance économique et, du coup, à la démocratie. La Corée du Sud a développé sa présence économique mais aussi politique et culturelle dans les pays de la région maghrébine à partir de plusieurs entrées : les relations avec l’ensemble de la re ...
  • Authors
    Said El Hachimi
    July 27, 2022
    Sleepless nights and the tireless search for compromise allowed WTO members to agree on concrete deliverables during the WTO 12th Ministerial Conference held last June. Those results reinforce Multilateralism. And this is a significant gain given the multiplicity of global crises that surround us. The Outcome include 6 Agreements, Declarations and Ministerial Decisions that respond to some of today's challenges, notably on Fisheries and Ocean Sustainability as well as responses to P ...