Africa’s Energy Future Must Be Written in African Ink

Africa in the World Energy Context: Resource Provider or Strategic Player?

As we step into the second quarter of the 21st century, the global energy landscape is undergoing a profound transformation. The transition from fossil fuels to renewables, the reshaping of geopolitical priorities, and the climate agenda are all redefining the rules of energy production, consumption, and power dynamics. In this shifting paradigm, Africa a continent long seen as an energy backwater or mere resource supplier is increasingly poised to become a central player in the energy equation.

Africa is home to some of the world’s most significant energy resources. It holds:

• 13% of global natural gas reserves,

• 7% of proven oil reserves,

• Vast deposits of critical minerals such as uranium, lithium, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements,

• 60% of the world’s highest-quality solar potential, particularly in the Sahel and sub-Saharan regions, with over 300 days of sunshine annually,

• Substantial potential for hydropower and wind energy development across many regions.

This unique combination of fossil fuels, renewable resources, and energy transition minerals gives Africa a strong foundation for energy security and long-term sustainability. However, the reality on the ground paints a starkly different picture.

Despite its abundance, over 600 million people in Africa still lack access to electricity. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 77% of the global electricity access deficit, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

This paradox is not the result of insufficient natural endowments, but of a chronic lack of:

• Energy infrastructure,

• Private and public investment,

• Policy coherence,

• Institutional and regulatory capacity.

Furthermore, Africa’s position in the global energy system has often been shaped by extractive models, where the continent primarily exports raw energy resources oil, gas, and minerals while importing refined products and technologies. This dependency hampers domestic value creation and weakens energy sovereignty.

The Challenge of the Future

Africa’s energy dilemma is set to intensify. With the continent’s population expected to exceed 2.5 billion by 2050, electricity demand is projected to triple. Relying on 20th-century, fossil-fuel-based energy models will not be viable economically, environmentally, or politically.

Africa has a unique opportunity and necessity to leapfrog into a cleaner, smarter, and more decentralized energy future. Such a transition must be guided by:

• Integrated national electrification strategies,

• Stronger regional power markets,

• Investment in renewable energy and grid infrastructure,

• Support for local manufacturing and energy innovation,

• Better alignment with global climate and financing mechanisms.

New Global Energy Dynamics: Strategic Opportunities for Africa

The global energy landscape is undergoing profound shifts driven by three interlinked forces: geopolitical realignments, the accelerating clean energy transition, and the intensifying race for critical minerals. These changes present both challenges and unprecedented opportunities for Africa if the continent can position itself strategically.

The war in Ukraine and its cascading effects on energy security have redrawn Europe’s energy map. In its urgent effort to wean itself off Russian natural gas, Europe is turning southward to Africa as a key alternative source. This has elevated the geopolitical relevance of African gas producers such as:

• Algeria, already a vital gas partner for Europe via pipelines to Spain and Italy,

• Nigeria, with expanding LNG capacity and export ambitions,

• Mozambique, poised to become a significant LNG supplier from its offshore reserves,

• Senegal and Tanzania, rapidly emerging as new players in the gas export arena.

Across the continent, investment is flowing into pipelines, LNG terminals, and long-term supply contracts. These developments could reshape Africa’s role in global energy trade if they are underpinned by sound governance, local value creation, and environmental safeguards.

As advanced economies accelerate toward net-zero emissions by 2050, Africa faces a different reality. While decarbonization is a global imperative, the continent is still grappling with energy poverty, industrial underdevelopment, and a growing population in need of affordable energy access.

In this context, natural gas could be a development fuel for Africa more than just a "transition fuel." It can power factories, expand electricity access, produce fertilizer, and support job creation in industrial sectors. The global climate agenda must therefore account for Africa’s right to develop, balancing emission goals with socio-economic realities.

A just energy transition must be differentiated recognizing that Africa’s emissions are currently less than 4% of the global total, yet it bears the brunt of climate change impacts.

Race for Critical Minerals: Africa’s New Leverage

The shift to clean energy technologies has sparked a global scramble for critical minerals the backbone of batteries, wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicles. Africa is rich in many of these minerals:

• The Democratic Republic of Congo supplies nearly 70% of the world’s cobalt,

• Zimbabwe and Namibia possess large lithium reserves,

• Guinea’s bauxite supports a large portion of the global aluminium supply chain,

• South Africa leads in platinum group metals, essential for hydrogen fuel cells and catalytic converters.

This mineral wealth positions Africa as an indispensable player in the global energy transition. But merely being a source of raw materials is not enough. The real opportunity lies in moving up the value chain processing, refining, and manufacturing within the continent to generate jobs, boost revenues, and reduce dependency on external actors.

A Geopolitical Chessboard on African Soil

Africa’s energy sector is no longer just a development concern it has become the centrepiece of a high-stakes geopolitical contest. In a world where energy security, critical minerals, and decarbonization goals intersect, Africa has emerged as both a prize and a player in a rapidly evolving power game. What’s unfolding is not future speculation it’s a competition happening now, on African soil, in real time.

Major players are moving their pieces strategically:

• China has rapidly become Africa’s most prolific energy infrastructure builder, having financed, and constructed over 70 major power projects across the continent. It now accounts for nearly 40% of Africa’s grid financing. With its hallmark blend of speed, scale, and turnkey delivery, China fills critical infrastructure gaps though often at the cost of rising debt burdens and limited local ownership.

• The European Union, seeking to counterbalance Beijing’s dominance, has ramped up its presence through the Global Gateway and European Green Deal. The EU’s approach prioritizes clean energy, sustainability, and African agency placing strong emphasis on partnerships over paternalism, and attempting to weave Africa’s energy development into a green industrial future.

• The United States, via Power Africa, has made a concerted return to the continent. However, while impactful in certain regions, its engagements have been marked by periods of inconsistency, limiting its credibility and long-term influence in the eyes of many African stakeholders.

• Türkiye, often overlooked in global analyses, has quietly carved out a strategic niche. Turkish firms such as TPAO, Kalyon, and others now operate in more than 25 African countries, delivering hydropower in Sudan, solar parks in the Sahel, and energy logistics across the continent. Nimble, risk-tolerant, and culturally attuned, Türkiye is emerging as a model of effective South-South energy cooperation, leveraging entrepreneurial diplomacy and historical ties.

This new energy geopolitics is not just about extraction and export it’s about influence, infrastructure, and ideology. Who builds the grids, who owns the generation assets, who processes the minerals, and who trains the next generation of African energy leaders?

Rewriting Africa’s Energy Narrative

Historically, Africa’s energy policies and projects have been largely shaped by external actors international oil companies, foreign aid agencies, and geopolitical interests. But this model is unsustainable. A new Africa-centered energy vision is emerging one that is sovereign, just, and inclusive.

Key Pillars of a New African Energy Strategy:

• Universal Energy Access: Over 600 million Africans without electricity is not just a development issue it’s a moral failure. Off-grid solar, mini-grids, and mobile payment-enabled energy access models must scale rapidly, especially in rural and underserved areas.

• Smart Use of Natural Gas: Africa must utilize its natural gas resources for domestic development, not just export. This includes gas-to-power projects, fertilizer production, and industrial uses paired with carbon-reducing technologies and international climate finance.

• Value Addition in Critical Minerals: Instead of exporting raw materials, Africa must develop local value chains. For instance, rather than shipping unprocessed cobalt to China, the DRC should host battery manufacturing plants. The same logic applies to lithium, graphite, and rare earths.

• Empowering African Companies: Indigenous energy firms must be strengthened to compete globally. Capacity-building, financing access, regional integration, and regulatory support are essential. Pan-African institutions like the African Development Bank, African Energy Chamber, and AfCFTA can play catalytic roles.

Africa’s Strategic Leverage in Global Energy Politics

Africa is not just a passive participant in global energy it has cards to play:

• Partner of Choice in a Multipolar World: With Europe, China, the U.S., India, the Gulf states, and Russia all vying for influence, African nations now have greater leverage to negotiate equitable deals, demand technology transfer, and insist on local benefits.

• Continental Energy Integration: Through initiatives like the West African Power Pool, Inga Hydropower, and cross-border gas pipelines, Africa can unlock economies of scale and stabilize energy markets.

• Climate Justice and Fair Transitions: Africa has contributed the least to global emissions, yet suffers the most from climate change. It should rightfully demand a larger share of climate finance, technology access, and flexibility in transition pathways without compromising its development needs.

Morocco: A Continental Model for Sovereignty and Vision

In the unfolding story of Africa’s energy transformation, Morocco stands as a rare success story a country that has managed to align vision, regulation, infrastructure, and geopolitics with a long-term, purpose-driven energy agenda. While many African nations struggle with fragmented policy frameworks, financing gaps, and institutional instability, Morocco offers a replicable model of what determined, coordinated action can achieve in the energy space.

Morocco is one of the few African countries that imports nearly all its fossil fuel needs, making energy security a national imperative. But instead of locking itself into dependency on hydrocarbons, the kingdom made a bold pivot investing in renewables not as a luxury, but as a strategic necessity.

• To date, Morocco has invested more than $5.3 billion in renewable energy infrastructure.

• The country is targeting a 52% renewable energy share in its power mix by 2030, with ambitions to go beyond 70% by 2040.

• It already derives over 38% of its electricity from renewables, thanks to solar, wind, and hydro in a diversified and integrated energy system.

This is not just about meeting domestic demand. Morocco’s vision is also export-oriented, with plans to become a regional clean energy hub connecting Sub-Saharan Africa to Europe via green hydrogen corridors, intercontinental electricity grids, and critical mineral processing chains.

At the heart of Morocco’s energy story lies the Noor Ouarzazate Solar Complex a technological and symbolic landmark in the global renewable landscape:

• Spanning over 3,000 hectares, Noor is one of the largest concentrated solar power (CSP) plants in the world, with a capacity of 580 MW.

• It integrates solar, wind, and hydropower, serving not just as an energy source but as a training hub for African engineers, technicians, and policymakers.

• Noor also exports knowledge and best practices, hosting delegations from across Africa and beyond, thus positioning Morocco as both a provider of energy and an exporter of institutional know-how.

What Sets Morocco Apart?

1. Institutional Clarity and Long-Term Policy Discipline:
Morocco’s success is anchored in its robust institutional design. The Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy (MASEN) acts as a single, competent public-private interface that coordinates planning, financing, and project execution. This eliminates bureaucratic overlap and ensures policy continuity something rare in a region often plagued by political turnover and shifting energy agendas.

2. Private Sector Enablement and International Partnerships:
Morocco has actively de-risked its energy sector, attracting global capital through clear regulations, stable tariffs, and bankable power purchase agreements (PPAs). European, Gulf, and Asian investors now see Morocco as a gateway into African renewables, drawn by its transparent procurement mechanisms and proven project delivery.

3. A Diplomatic Strategy Aligned with Energy Goals:
Energy is at the core of Morocco’s foreign policy. Through the “South-South cooperation” framework, it has built energy diplomacy as a lever for continental leadership signing interconnection deals with Nigeria, Mauritania, and West African nations, as well as electricity exchange agreements with Spain and Portugal. Its planned green hydrogen partnerships with Germany, the EU, and the UK further consolidate its role as a strategic energy bridge between Africa and Europe.

A Replicable Blueprint

Morocco’s approach resonates across a continent looking for models, not miracles. It shows that:

• African countries can lead the energy transition, not follow.

• Vision, when matched with institutions and investor trust, delivers real results.

• Strategic foresight can turn energy from a dependency to a diplomatic and economic advantage.

In short, Morocco is not just powering its own homes it is helping illuminate Africa’s path forward. For African nations aiming to write their energy future in African ink, Morocco offers the pen and the paper.

Five Levers to Power Africa On African Terms

Africa stands at a defining crossroads not just in its energy development, but in its pursuit of sovereignty, sustainability, and shared prosperity. If this transition is to succeed, it must reflect African realities, African leadership, and African innovation. Below are five levers that can power the continent’s future the African way.

Modernize the Grid, Decentralize the System

Africa’s power systems remain highly centralized, inefficient, and outdated. Transmission and distribution (T&D) losses in many countries exceed 20%, undermining reliability and resilience. The future lies in decentralized models:

• Mini-grids, microgrids, and off-grid solar systems can reach remote communities faster than large national grids.

• Battery storage and smart grid technologies will reduce peak load pressures and integrate variable renewables more efficiently.

• Investment in digital infrastructure must parallel physical infrastructure to enable load management, billing, and predictive maintenance.

Innovate in Finance And Scale Up Fast

Africa's climate finance reached $43.7 billion in 2024, a 48% increase but still a far cry from the $277 billion needed annually by 2030 to meet energy and climate goals.

New financial instruments and models must become the norm:

• Blended finance mechanisms can de-risk private capital.

• Green bonds and sovereign sustainability-linked bonds must be mainstreamed.

• Article 6 of the Paris Agreement offers a critical pathway for monetizing emissions reductions through international carbon credit markets.

• Fintech platforms can unlock access to pay-as-you-go energy for millions living off-grid.

Africa doesn’t lack money it lacks mechanisms to mobilize and multiply it.

Empower the Private Sector Remove the Shackles

Investors are not afraid of Africa; they are afraid of uncertainty. Today, red tape, currency instability, opaque regulation, and weak contract enforcement keep capital on the sidelines.

To reverse this:

• Regulatory frameworks must be simplified and standardized.

• Sovereign guarantees can reduce risk premiums.

• Permitting and licensing processes must be transparent, time-bound, and digitally accessible.

• Governments must move from operator to enabler, letting entrepreneurs lead.

The private sector is not a threat to national development it is an engine of it.

Deepen Regional Integration Think Beyond Borders

Only 19 African countries currently engage in electricity trade, despite massive generation gaps and natural complementarities.

It is time to scale up:

• West African Power Pool (WAPP), Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP), and Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) must move from pilot stages to fully functional regional markets.

• This requires grid interoperability, harmonized tariffs, common technical standards, and shared infrastructure investments.

• Cross-border power trade is not just efficient it builds trust, economic interdependence, and continental resilience.

Africa must trade electrons across borders as seamlessly as it trades ideas.
 

Build Local Value Chains From Minerals to Manufacturing

Africa cannot continue to export raw materials while importing finished goods. Its energy transition must create jobs, technology transfer, and industrial depth.

• Refine lithium in Zimbabwe, not just export ore.

• Assemble batteries in Kenya, not just import them from Asia.

• Manufacture solar panels in Nigeria, not just deploy Chinese kits.

But building local value chains requires:

• Targeted industrial policy

• Skills training and R&D

• Patient, risk-tolerant capital

The aim is not just to consume clean energy but to own the value created.

Water, Food, Energy, Climate: An Indivisible Nexus

Africa must abandon siloed approaches to development. Energy policy cannot be formulated in isolation from agriculture, water, and climate resilience.

Examples abound:

• Solar irrigation in Mali boosts food security and reduces diesel use.

• Wind-powered desalination in Namibia addresses water stress in a warming climate.

• Cold-chain logistics powered by renewables in Ethiopia prevent post-harvest losses and protect livelihoods.

Africa’s future lies in nexus thinking integrated planning that maximizes co-benefits and minimizes trade-offs.

Greatest Asset: Human Capital

Infrastructure can be built. Finance can be sourced. But without people, there is no energy transition.

• Africa will need over 10 million skilled energy professionals by 2030 engineers, technicians, data analysts, grid operators.

• Investment in TVET institutions, digital training, and green innovation labs must be a top priority.

• Women and youth are not beneficiaries they must be leaders and co-creators in this transformation.

Africa's demographic dividend is also its decarbonization dividend, if empowered.

Africa’s Energy Future Must Be Written in African Ink

The era when Africa’s energy narrative was dictated by outsiders its vast resources extracted to fuel prosperity elsewhere is coming to an end. The continent can no longer be relegated to the role of mere supplier of raw materials or a footnote in global energy discussions. Africa must be recognized and respected as a strategic partner, a principal architect of the world’s energy future, not a passive appendage.

For this to happen, Africa’s energy transition must be:

• By Africans: Led by homegrown expertise, institutions, and entrepreneurs who intimately understand the continent’s unique challenges, rich opportunities, and urgent priorities.

• For Africans: Designed to fulfill the real and pressing needs of its people from universal energy access and sustainable industrialization to climate resilience and inclusive economic growth.

• On African Terms: Rooted in the continent’s diverse socio-economic realities and environmental contexts, rather than relying on imported models ill-suited for local conditions.

This vision demands more than just technical blueprints or external funding. It calls for:

• Visionary Leadership: Bold, forward-thinking leaders capable of long-term strategy, deft negotiation on the global stage, and unwavering commitment to Africa’s interests.

• Regional Solidarity: Deep cooperation across borders to build integrated infrastructure, harmonize energy markets, and amplify collective bargaining power.

• Strategic Assertiveness: Confident engagement to shape international rules on energy trade, climate finance, and mineral value chains that currently too often disadvantage African nations.

The world is watching as the global appetite for energy and critical minerals surges. Africa holds the keys to these vital resourcesbut it must wield them with wisdom, unity, and conviction.

Africa can no longer afford to be a spectator in global energy diplomacy. It must step forward as a standard-setter, a problem solver, and a storyteller crafting its own narratives grounded in African needs and driven by authentic African agency.

• The world’s clean energy future flows through Africa’s veins.

• The minerals powering the transition lie buried beneath its soil.

• The markets of tomorrow thrive in its vibrant cities and rural communities alike.

• The innovation that will shape the future pulses in the minds and hands of its youth.

Global partners are invited but not to command or dictate. They may offer capital, technology, or frameworks, but the script must be written by Africans themselves.

The pen is in Africa’s hands now. It must write its own energy destiny in African ink, on African paper, with an unmistakable African voice. Not just for today, but for the generations yet to come, carving a legacy of empowerment, sovereignty, and sustainable prosperity.

Author’s Note

“Resilience cannot be outsourced. Africa must power its future its way.”

“Energy is not just about light. It is about life, dignity, and opportunity.”

Mehmet Öğütçü is a prominent international authority on energy, investment, geopolitics, and sustainable development with almost 40 years of experience bridging the public and private sectors, and international organisations. He currently serves as Chairman of the Global Resources Partnership and the London Energy Club, where he leads strategic discussions among top executives in finance, energy, and politics. Mehmet’s distinguished diplomatic career includes senior postings in Beijing, Brussels, and Paris, alongside advisory roles to former Turkish Prime Minister Turgut Özal and leadership positions at the International Energy Agency and OECD in Paris. He has also been a board member for major corporations such as British Gas, Genel Energy, YEO, Invensys, Saudi Crown Holding and Şişecam Group. Fluent in Turkish, English, French, and Chinese, Mehmet offers a unique global and multicultural perspective on energy and investment strategies. mehmetogutcu@me.com