L’or face aux incertitudes mondiales : que nous dit la quête de sécurité ?

Discrepancies in output fluctuations between emerging and developed economies are well documented in the literature. Differences however within developing economies have not been sufficiently scrutinised. This paper argues that global and regional shocks primarily drive the business cycle in emerging economies, and provides estimated results for cycle variance decomposition. The paper also offers a theoretical framework to check on the set of stylized facts common and specific to em ...

The IMF recently revised down its growth forecasts, making large changes in the forecasts for some emerging markets, in particular Brazil and oil-producing countries (such as Nigeria and Saudi Arabia). This report presents a snapshot of the global unemployment outlook and discusses what the recent revisions could mean for the unemployment outlook for these countries based on past relationships between growth and unemployment. We conclude with a look at the growth-unemployment link f ...

Global economic growth is likely to be a little better in 2016 than this year’s lackluster outcome. The ongoing slow recovery in the United States and Europe is likely to continue. However, weakness in China as well as several large emerging markets, and sluggishness of world trade, mean that risks are weighted on the downside of this forecast. Morocco, which is reliant on European markets, is a heavy importer of oil, and whose currency has devalued in effective terms, should find t ...

The issue of a powerful fiscal policy comeback is not only being debated in Europe. It is also interesting for Morocco, in many respects. If in Europe there is controversy between the proponents of the structural budgetary balance rule and critics of restrictive policies in the context of major financial and recessive shocks, in the South of the Mediterranean fiscal policy is caught between the multiple social and economic requirements and the constraint of sustainability. ...

Depuis le déclenchement de la crise économique et financière internationale, la politique budgétaire a connu un vif regain d’intérêt dans les arènes académiques et dans les débats des policy-makers, aussi bien dans les pays avancés que ceux en voie de développement. Pour un pays en voie de développement comme le Maroc, l’importance de la politique budgétaire réside dans le potentiel qu’elle offre en matière de stabilisation du cycle économique et de relance de l’activité en période ...

Au cours de la dernière décennie, le Ghana a enregistré des taux de croissance moyens supérieurs à 7 % par an, ce qui lui a permis d’accéder au statut de pays à revenu intermédiaire de la tranche inférieure. Toutefois, la croissance a récemment marqué le pas pour s’établir à 4,2 % en 2014, ce qui soulève la question de la pérennité du modèle de développement du pays. Le Ghana se trouve désormais à un stade critique de son processus de développement. Une transformation structurelle ...