Macroeconomics and regulation

This paper was originally published as a chapter within the Book, Foreign Exchange Constraint and Developing Economies, published on January 2023 (ISBN  978 1 80088 049 8).   The decade after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–2009 saw signifi- cant changes in the volume and composition of capital flows in the global economy. Portfolio investments and other non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) are behind an increasing share of foreign capital flows, while bank- ing flo ...

Three significant changes to the macroeconomic policy regime in advanced economies, compared to the post-global financial crisis period, have unfolded in the last two years. First, fears of a chronic insufficiency of aggregate demand as a growth deterrent prevailing after the 2008 global financial crisis, have been superseded by supply-side shocks and inflation. Second, as a result of the first change, the era of abundant and cheap liquidity provided by central banks has given way t ...

L’objectif de ce papier est d’essayer d’examiner si l’implémentation du cadre de ciblage de l’inflation par la banque centrale, permet une réduction de la dette publique dans les pays émergents, à travers l'effet disciplinant du ciblage sur la conduite de la politique budgétaire en général. Pour ce faire, la méthode d’évaluation d’impact utilisée est l’appariement par score de propension ou Propensity Score Matching (PSM), qui permet l’évaluation de l’effet de traitement ...

En Afrique, le niveau de la vulnérabilité économique des pays reste élevé et représente un obstacle à la croissance économique et à la réduction de la pauvreté. Ce constat nous mène à étudier cette problématique pour un échantillon des pays africains les plus exposés aux chocs économiques. En effet, ce travail a pour objectif principal d’identifier les effets des composantes des deux indicateurs de vulnérabilité et de résilience économique sur le niveau de reve ...

The US dollar has risen dramatically in value against other currencies recently. Three channels through which factors affecting bilateral exchange rates operate have been pulling up the U.S. dollar: yield differentials, liquidity differentials, and growth differentials. The strong appreciation of the US dollar against other currencies recently reinforced the contractionary pressures present in the global economy. Ultimately, the “turn” or “pivot” of the dollar will most likely occur ...

In the chaotic global post-COVID-19 economy, with the ongoing war in Ukraine, the challenge of adjusting to the global stagflation that is engulfing the world is particularly hard for the oil importing countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. A regional commission of experts, working under the auspices of the Economic Research Forum (ERF), and the Finance for Development Lab (FDL), was asked to evaluate the macro-economic risks ahead, and to make recommendations ...

The pandemic has hit Latin America hard, and its economic recovery has been slower than in other regions. In addition to the legacy of higher public indebtedness, the pandemic left scars on the labor market and the human capital formation of future workers. The COVID-19 crisis has receded in Latin America but has left a significant toll. Reported deaths from the pandemic are currently low and converging to global levels. The average excess mortality during the pandemic was among t ...

En attribuant le prix Nobel d'économie 2022 à Ben S. Bernanke, Douglas W. Diamond et Philip H. Dybvig, le jury Nobel a voulu distinguer des travaux, remontant aux années 1980, qui permettent de mieux comprendre l'implication des banques dans les crises. Travaux pionniers, également, dans l'élaboration d'une théorie bancaire, où l'analyse historique est présente avec Ben S. Bernanke qui a longuement étudié le rôle des banques dans la crise de 1929, afin de ne pas renouveler les erreu ...

There is an international movement to tighten monetary and fiscal policies as a response to the global inflation phenomenon. Accordingly, global economic growth projections for 2022 and 2023 have been revised downward. As inflation will decline only gradually, given the price stickiness of its core components, there is likely to be momentarily a situation of stagflation, i.e. a combination of significant inflation and low or negative GDP growth. We discuss how the current global s ...

“The debate on the viability of industrial policy design based on the fragmentation of global value chains, from a cost optimization perspective, did not arise first in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis but was present long before. This industrial policy design was justified by the great development of logistics and transport across the world’s industrial clusters, which allowed just-in-time manufacturing to become the main adopted production model. However, the disruption of logistic ...

La succession des chocs pandémique, climatique et géopolitique a éprouvé les économies africaines. Les liens commerciaux et financiers avec le monde ne sont plus seulement considérés comme des moteurs de performance, mais aussi comme des sources potentielles de vulnérabilité. La défiance à l’égard de la mondialisation s’est accrue. Parce qu’elle est venue souligner la dépendance du continent, le dérèglement de ses rapports à la nature et sa vulnérabilité face aux tensions géopolitiq ...