Publications /
Policy Brief

Back
WINDS OF CHANGE: The BRICS Club of Nations and the Dawn of The New South
Authors
November 4, 2024

This paper was originaly published on trendsresearch.org

 

In this era of polycrises, where a global health pandemic coincides with wars in Europe and the Middle East, alongside Great Power rivalries and climate emergencies, countries around the world—rich and poor alike— are feeling the profound impacts. The Global South,1 in particular, has been disproportionately affected, with the World Bank warning of a ‘decade of lost development.’ As geopolitical tensions rise, security concerns are reshaping the nature of economic relationships between nations. This shift is especially evident in the complex interactions surrounding new technologies and the raw materials they depend on.

The traditional Western-led liberal world order, founded on principles of competition, open markets, free trade, and comparative advantage, is increasingly being challenged by protectionist behaviors in Western markets. The recent focus on de-risking and friend-shoring, justified by both security and economic concerns, has led to the adoption of anti-competitive practices. While the need for economic resilience is widely acknowledged, some argue that these measures are designed to undermine China’s comparative advantage in certain strategic sectors, thereby impeding its challenge to the hegemonic status of the United States and Western power more broadly. Regardless of the rationale, these new policies are adding another layer of disruption to global supply chains, already strained by recent crises. This trend raises concerns about the future of global trade as a critical tool for development, which has historically lifted millions out of poverty.

The specter of twelve rounds of Western sanctions on Russia as a consequence of the latter’s war in Ukraine since February 2022, and most recently, G7 initiatives to bankroll Ukraine’s war efforts through funds derived from interests on frozen Russian assets, has led several countries -spearheaded by BRICS members - to consider alternatives to the Western financial institutional architecture in a bid to safeguard their own interests. These measures risk fragmenting the existing global financial infrastructure and derailing benefits derived from decades of economic integration in the face of new barriers to cross border investment, commerce, and trade. Recent research shows that trade restrictions have more than tripled since 2019, financial sanctions have expanded and the geopolitical risk index has also spiked, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.2 While this and other reports suggest an absence of clear signs of de-globalization, the point is nonetheless being made that below-the-surface trends speak to increasing fragmentation with “trade and investment flows being redirected along geopolitical lines.”3 After decades of accepting the West’s rules, there is a sense that the era of the Global South is dawning, and that Western interests are no longer de facto those of the rest of the world. It is in this milieu that the BRICS and their initiatives take on heightened economic and political significance.

  • July 31, 2025
    This episode explores Africa's role amid a shifting global order marked by fragmentation and competing blocs. It examines whether African states are passive responders or active shapers of new strategic alignments like BRICS+ and South–South cooperation. The discussion also addresses Af...
  • July 25, 2025
    This episode explores the evolving relationship between India and Africa, with guest Mr. Mishra from the Manohar Parrikar Institute for African Studies. From historical ties to emerging s ...
  • Authors
    Bruno Saraiva
    July 21, 2025
    This article assesses the economic performance of the original BRICS economies, relative to the growth and currency appreciation projections presented in the papers that introduced the acronym, prior to the grouping becoming a diplomatic, political, and economic reality. It also discusses the BRICS agenda in the current challenging geopolitical context, in which economic fragmentation tends to raise costs for the global economy and presents considerable obstacles for emerging and de ...
  • July 18, 2025
    Vingt ans après sa création, le Parlement panafricain demeure un organe institutionnel marginalisé au sein de l’Union africaine. Pensé comme instrument de représentation des peuples africains, il n’a jamais acquis les prérogatives ni les relais lui permettant de jouer un rôle politique important. Ce Policy Paper analyse les raisons de cette impasse à partir de trois angles : la faiblesse institutionnelle et le déficit de légitimité du PAP ; le blocage du Protocole de Malabo, révélat ...
  • Authors
    Bruno Saraiva
    July 14, 2025
    The BRICS+ group of countries met in Rio de Janeiro over the weekend of 6-7 July. The original group – Brazil, Russia, India, China and, soon after, South Africa – emerged as the materialization of a work of fiction. Jim O’Neill, then chief economist at Goldman Sachs, produced a report in 2001 drawing attention to the rise of these countries as emerging regional powers in global economic growth. ...
  • July 11, 2025
    In this episode, we discuss whether Africa’s sub-regions foster unity or deepen divides, examine how they handle political crises, and consider the impact of global powers on regional dynamics. We explore what’s needed for stronger cooperation and how Africa can preserve its diversity w...
  • Authors
    July 4, 2025
    Trente ans après l’Accord d’association de 1995, le partenariat entre la Tunisie et l’Union européenne s’épuise, pris au piège d’un logiciel diplomatique obsolète, hérité d’une époque révolue. Conçu comme un levier de convergence normative et de modernisation économique, il repose encore sur des fictions désormais intenables : une Europe généreuse et cohérente, une Tunisie en capacité d’absorber l’acquis communautaire, et un intérêt mutuel qui aurait survécu aux bouleversements géop ...
  • July 3, 2025
    Launched in November 2023, Morocco’s Atlantic Initiative aims to provide landlocked Sahel countries with strategic access to the Atlantic Ocean through major infrastructure investments in ports, roads, and rail. Anchored in regional integration, the initiative supports economic growth, ...