Publications /
Opinion

Back
Taking Down the Sign: Carney’s Wake-Up Call to Middle Powers
February 13, 2026

There is a story told by Václav Havel, the Czech dissident writer who later became president after the fall of communism. In his essay The Power of the Powerless, Havel describes a shopkeeper who, every morning, places a sign in his window reading: “Workers of the world, unite!” He does not believe in it. Nor do the people around him. Yet the sign remains.

The Sign That Stays

On every street, other shopkeepers do the same. They display the slogan not out of conviction but to avoid trouble, signal compliance, and make everyday life a little easier. The system endures not because people believe in its message, but because they continue to act as if they do.

Mark Carney returned to this story in his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos. By invoking Havel, the Canadian Prime Minister was making a broader point: many of the habits, concepts, and narratives we still use to describe the international system no longer correspond to how it actually functions.

For years, global affairs have been framed as being in a period of “transition”, the assumption being that the international order was under strain, yet fundamentally intact, and that stability would eventually reassert itself. Carney challenges this view. He argues that “we are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.” The force of this argument lies in its refusal to treat today’s tensions as temporary. Instead, it points to a deeper, structural break in the foundations of the global order.

At the heart of his speech lies a simple observation: even though the old story about the international system no longer holds, it continues to be told.

That story is familiar. It portrays a rules-based international order, presents economic integration as largely beneficial, and assumes that multilateral institutions can shield weaker actors from stronger ones. Over time, this narrative has drifted ever further from reality. Power imbalances have been visible for years, yet rarely confronted directly. As long as the system appeared to function, its contradictions were largely set aside. 

The sign remained in the window.

When Integration Becomes Leverage

Carney argues that continuing this performance has become increasingly dangerous. Economic integration, through trade, finance, and global supply chains, was long understood as a shared good. Today, it is frequently deployed as leverage. Tariffs, market access, financial infrastructure, and supply chains have become instruments of pressure, sometimes used not only against rivals, but also against allies.

In this context, describing integration primarily in cooperative terms no longer captures how interdependence is actually being exercised. As Carney puts it, it is no longer possible to “live within the lie of mutual benefit when integration becomes the source of subordination”.

This gap between language and reality is no longer merely implicit, it is increasingly stated openly. In a recent interview, Stephen Miller, a senior White House official and close adviser to Donald Trump, argued that “we live in a world… governed by strength, by force, by power”.

What matters here is not the individual remark, but what it reveals about the moment we are in. When someone so close to the center of power speaks in these terms, there is no longer even an attempt to sustain the fiction. The notion that international politics is primarily shaped by rules or shared principles is not only undermined in practice, it is openly rejected.

This is where Havel’s shopkeeper becomes relevant once again. What initially served as a form of protection gradually turns into a sign of compliance. The sign no longer shields the shopkeeper; it exposes him. A similar dynamic can unfold at the international level. States that continue to rely on the language of cooperation, even as they are subjected to pressure, may find that this language no longer offers protection. Instead, it highlights their vulnerability.

Facing Fragmentation

Unsurprisingly, many countries are now seeking to depend less on others and more on themselves. Energy, food, industrial capacity, and control over strategic sectors have moved to the top of national agendas. Carney treats this shift as understandable: a country unable to secure its basic needs has very little freedom to make its own choices.

At the same time, he warns that national solutions alone are not sufficient. Seeking autonomy in isolation risks producing a fragmented world, one in which countries retreat behind economic and political barriers, becoming less prosperous, less resilient, and less capable of cooperation.

Carney offers a different way of framing the challenge. As he puts it, “nostalgia is not a strategy.” The old order is not coming back, and acting as if it might only postpones decisions that already need to be made. What matters instead is how states, particularly middle powers, adapt to a system shaped by fragmentation and unequal power, without simply accepting a diminished role.

This reflects a basic reality. In bilateral relations with dominant powers, countries rarely negotiate as equals. What ultimately matters is not shared principles, but how much pressure each side can absorb. Governments often justify compromises by claiming there was no real alternative, and sovereignty begins to feel more symbolic than substantive. In this sense, taking the sign down means ending the performance.

Ending the Performance

This is not a call for confrontation or disengagement. It is a call for honesty. The old order no longer delivers what it once promised; double standards erode credibility; and values cannot be defended without the capacity to sustain and protect them.

One of the most pragmatic aspects of Carney’s speech is his emphasis on domestic strength. He links a country’s ability to act abroad to its resilience at home. Building economic capacity, diversifying partnerships, investing in technology, and developing human capital are not expressions of isolationism; they reduce vulnerability and give governments greater room for choice. When defending principles carries immediate costs, governments often opt for what they can afford rather than for what they believe.

For many middle powers and countries in the Global South, this argument will sound familiar. For years, the language used in international forums has diverged from lived experience on the ground. Many states have remained engaged with the system out of necessity rather than conviction. What Carney appears to suggest is that this implicit bargain, stability in exchange for silence, no longer holds.

Havel’s parable helps explain why. In his story, the system appears solid only because people continue to play their assigned roles. It does not unravel through open rebellion, but when individuals quietly stop going along with it. Once that happens, the system begins to weaken from within.

This is the risk Carney is warning about. Repeating the language of cooperation and mutual benefit when it no longer reflects how power is actually exercised may feel safer in the short term, but it cannot endure indefinitely.

Carney therefore argues for a shift in focus. Rather than waiting for the old order to return, governments should begin building what they claim to believe in. This means creating institutions and agreements that function as advertised and reducing forms of dependence that enable pressure and coercion. For Carney, this process begins at home, with a stronger and more resilient domestic economy.

This is where middle powers matter most. Individually, their influence is limited; collectively, they can reduce vulnerability and shape cooperation in more pragmatic ways. As Carney put it in one of the most memorable lines of his speech: “If we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.”

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    September 28, 2018
    “ARE THEY PLAYING US? I DO NOT KNOW” There they were, the North Koreans, covered by red flags, and more red flags — a Hollywood production indeed. Were the soldiers singing? There was nothing to sing about since they're marching for endless hours, being scrutinized by cameras and bothered by aching pains of hunger, unable to speak and stimulate their voice. The colonel in charge of the marchers may discover some rusty spot on a belt buckle or a truck on parade may run out of fuel - ...
  • Authors
    July 4, 2018
    “NONE OF AFRICA’S PROBLEMS CAN BE RESOLVED THROUGH MILITARY FORCE” Colonel Raul Rivas arrived in dress uniform, his parachute citations well polished. His ribbons for bravery and combat duty were aligned at the upper left-hand side of his jacket, a colorful display of combat, death and battles in Afghanistan and Iraq.  The Colonel, just a few years above 40, and despite his 21 years in the military, was as “proud of being an American as one can be,” a true patriot. He jumpe ...
  • Authors
    June 29, 2018
    Not far from highway 95, near a town named Lathrop Wells, only one establishment, besides the petrol station, was known to the rough cowboys and joyless soldiers of the nearby nuclear testing site, and that was “Mabel’s whore house”, advertised as such without shame and ready to accept credit cards. Luigi Raugi, a legal immigrant (from Sicily), as it is wise to insist these repressing days of  American immigrant bashing, was running the local drugstore and really excited, as w ...
  • Authors
    June 11, 2018
    Donald Trump, a golf addict with a self-declared handicap of 3, is not noted for any chess enthusiasm, although the game is a simulation of a battle, and filled with military terminology such as double attack, demolition, breakthrough, decoying, interception, blockade, and x-ray attack among others. The historic game is intellectual, structured, and logic. The object is to maneuver the antagonist’s king into a position from which escape is impossible. The two contenders - at times - ...
  • Authors
    May 3, 2018
    “Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and smart” (Donald Trump on Twitter). A menace in 223 characters - an imaginary video game moving slowly towards the reality of Hiroshima. History on collision course with our future. No thought about victims, no word of destruction, just “you should not be partner with a gas killing animal, who kills his people and enjoys it.” The Commander in Chief of the Un ...
  • Authors
    April 23, 2018
    The 132nd day in the Gregorian calendar, anno 2018, will be part of history, a day future generations will most likely not forget, the 12th of May. Only history buffs will remember that on the 12th day of May, Napoleon conquered Venice, once known as the “Most Serene Republic”. On May 12th and the following days in the year of 1940, the Nazis crossed the Meuse and defeated France in a Blitzkrieg. England’s King George VI celebrated his coronation in 1937, on this ...
  • Authors
    April 6, 2018
    The young women sitting in the Olympic ice hockey stadium of Kwandong, South Korea, were dressed like a group of gorgeous stewardesses on an outing after graduating from flight school, or as if they were celebrating the survival of an emergency landing. They applauded in a very methodical fashion, a well-studied rhythm that their eternal Supreme leader Kim Jong-Un certainly did not learn at his Swiss boarding school “Liebefeld Steinhoelzi” near Bern, Switzerland. Who dares to confir ...
  • Authors
    March 29, 2018
    The Soviet crew faced death in the depth of the Caribbean. Their submarine of the diesel powered “Foxtrott” class, registered as “B -52”, had been transformed into a gigantic metal coffin. It was in October 1962, the month when the world stopped breathing. The end, nuclear war, seemed near. Human civilization has never faced such an APOCALYPSE in history. The unthinkable was likely to happen. Washington and Moscow, here the leaders of the free capitalistic world, and there the repre ...
  • Authors
    Laurence Nardon
    November 23, 2017
    Déjà illustré par le retournement diplomatique des années 1970, le débat stratégique américain sur la Chine est ancien. C’est dans les années 1990 qu’il prend toute son ampleur cependant : au lendemain de la chute de l’URSS et à la veille des bouleversements du 11 septembre 2001, alors que la puissance chinoise commence à s’envoler sur les terrains économiques et militaires, la communauté de politique étrangère américaine multiplie les analyses sur ce nouveau grand acteur des relati ...