Brazil after the 2014 Elections: A Bumpy Road Ahead

The global unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly in 2016 to 5.7 percent but remain well below the peak of 6.2 percent recorded in 2009. The increase results from deteriorating growth prospects among many emerging markets and in some oil-producing countries. According to forecasts released in the IMF’s October 2015 World Economic Outlook, big increases in unemployment are expected to occur next year in Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, and Russia. ...

Brazil’s future prospects, and ability to harness its advantages, will hinge on its own policy choices over the next few years. Yet the outlook for meaningful change is unclear. At present, Brazil is in a weaker position than four years ago, from both an economic and a foreign policy standpoint. Even in a scenario where Brazil’s economy gradually returns to the course it was on until 2008, no major strategic changes are likely to happen in Rousseff’s four-year term. ...