Otaviano Canuto on Secular Stagnation and the Big Balance Sheet Economy

This paper examines the evolution of China’s services sector between 2012 and 2022, analyzing the country’s structural transformation based on a novel three-tier taxonomy: knowledge services (KS), enabling services (ES), and local services (LS). Using sixteen quantitative indicators from OECD databases, the study evaluates China’s transition in comparison to the EU15 benchmark, highlighting three core challenges: manufacturing rebalancing, labor absorption, and global integration.Th ...

Available soon on livremoi. The 2026 edition of the Annual Report on the African Economy examines the issue of the valorization of Africa’s natural resources, particularly its mineral wealth. While the continent holds some of the world’s largest known reserves of a wide range of minerals and metals, the objective is not merely to catalogue these resources, but rather to explore the conditions under which natural resource endowments can be transformed into drivers of Africa’s in ...

This Policy Paper has also been published in French and Spanish by Le Grand Continent Morocco offers a compelling example of how a middle-income economy can navigate a more fragmented global environment, characterized by weak growth and slower convergence. Since 2022, economic activity has remained relatively strong, with growth exceeding that of many comparable economies. Non-agricultural growth has averaged 4.4% since 2022, around 1.3 percentage points above its historical av ...

Este Policy Paper también ha sido publicado en inglés y francés por Le Grand Continent La economía marroquí constituye un caso ilustrativo entre las economías de renta media, en un contexto marcado por una creciente fragmentación del entorno internacional, un crecimiento mundial anémico y una desaceleración de la convergencia. Desde 2022, su trayectoria se caracteriza por una relativa solidez, con un crecimiento superior a la media de las economías de la misma categoría. Superi ...

Ce Policy Paper a également été publiée en anglais et en espagnol par Le Grand Continent Le Maroc offre un exemple éclairant parmi les pays à revenu intermédiaire, dans un contexte marqué par une fragmentation croissante de l’environnement international, une croissance mondiale atone et un ralentissement de la convergence. Depuis 2022, sa trajectoire se distingue par une certaine robustesse, avec un rythme d’expansion supérieur à celui des autres économies de même catégorie. Dé ...

Africa is facing a massive electricity deficit that is impacting its economic and social development, and its ability to catch up with the rest of the world. It is imperative that the continent increase its electricity production to connect the 600 million people who are currently without access and to improve the quality of service for the millions who are suffering from frequent blackouts and load-shedding. Economic development in the 21st century will crucially depend on the digi ...

In Morocco, the issue of young NEETs (Not in Employment, Education, or Training) is a national emergency, fueled by 300,000 students dropping out of school each year. In response to this challenge, the “New Generation Second Chance School” (E2C-NG) model has proven its effectiveness by achieving an exceptional employment rate of 81%.However, this institutional success rests entirely on a local network of organizations that is now under strain. A previously unpublished analysis of da ...

Au Maroc, la problématique des jeunes NEETs (Ni en emploi, ni en études, ni en formation) constitue une urgence nationale, alimentée par 300 000 abandons scolaires annuels. Face à ce défi, le modèle de l'École de la Deuxième chance nouvelle génération (E2C-NG) a démontré sa pertinence en affichant un taux d'insertion exceptionnel de 81 %.Cependant, ce succès institutionnel repose intégralement sur un tissu associatif local aujourd'hui fragilisé. L'analyse inédite des donné ...

History devotes considerable attention to the rise and fall of great powers. Scholars have spent centuries analyzing why empires collapse, why nations decline, and why dominant states eventually lose their position. By comparison, relatively little attention has been devoted to a different question: what happens when a country succeeds beyond its own expectations? ...

Global imbalances are back—and this time the risks look different. The 2008 financial crisis showed how persistent current-account deficits and surpluses between major economies can fuel financial instability and trigger sudden, severe reversals of capital flows. After almost two decades, many thought that episode had been resolved. It had not. New imbalances have built up, with a familiar cast: China, Germany, Japan, and oil exporters running large surpluses, and the United States ...