Africa's pulse Report 2025

This paper estimates the economic impacts of climate change over the Brazilian regions until the end of the century. We estimate the direct and indirect impact of the projected changes in climate on the yield of the country’s main crops. The results point to a broad spatial heterogeneity of impacts across the country. Using the extreme scenarios created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (RCP 2.6 and 8.5), our predictions indicate that the average annual losses ...

China is the world's largest exporter of goods. It is also, by any plausible criterion, a developing country. China's dual status needs to be better reflected in Chinese policies - recognizing its global responsibilities -- and in those of the Western powers - recognizing China's limitations. Across three important agendas - macroeconomics, development assistance, and climate - important differences between China and the West remain, yet none of these issues appears intractable. ...

The Atlantic basin faces considerable challenges on multiple fronts. Financial and economic struggles, coupled with political shifts and social turmoil, are reshaping the region’s geopolitical landscape. Unemployment, poverty, violence, migration, extremism, climate change and other problems are on the rise and the need to tackle them effectively is pressing. To find adequate solutions to these challenges, it is crucial to create inclusive discussions between the North and the Sout ...

The pandemic is accelerating history, in the sense that it is leading to the speeding up of some recent trends. In the case of globalization, the pandemic will not reverse it, but it will reshape it. Here we take a bird’s eye view of global trade during the pandemic, relate it to previous trends, and guess how global value chain managers and government trade policymakers are likely to react. A Bird’s Eye View of Global Trade during the Pandemic World trade took a deep dive during ...

Short-term climate conditions may affect crop yields and vintage quality and, as a consequence, wine prices and vineyards’ earnings. In this paper, we use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Chile, which incorporates very detailed information about the value chain of the wine sector in the country. Using information for the 2015-2016 harvest, we calibrate climate variability shocks associated with a “bad year” for the wine industry in Chile, when premature rains occurre ...

Nous abordons la question de l’impact du climat sur la propagation de Covid-19 avec une certaine hésitation, car nous sommes des économistes, et non des virologues. Pourtant, le fait que les épicentres du Covid-19, de Wuhan à Téhéran, Bergame, Mulhouse, Madrid et New York, se trouvent en zone tempérée est d’une grande importance, puisque ces régions risquent de subir le plus grand nombre de décès et les plus grands dommages économiques. Les épidémies de grippe passées, dont beaucou ...

Les décideurs politiques du monde entier sont confrontés à un dilemme : confiner l’économie et voir la production et l’emploi s’effondrer, ou ouvrir et faire face à une recrudescence des infections et des décès dus au COVID 19 qui submergent le système médical ? Le choix est particulièrement difficile dans les pays pauvres, où beaucoup dépendent de ce qu’ils gagnent au jour le jour et où le système médical n’est pas du tout équipé pour faire face au virus. Dans ce brief, nous souhai ...

- There are three possible justifications for central banks to engage with climate change issues: financial risks, macroeconomic impacts, and mitigation/adaptation policies. - Regardless of the extent to which individual central banks take action in each of the three areas, they can no longer ignore climate change. Last year, extreme weather events associated with climate change – floods, violent storms, droughts, and forest fires –occurred on all inhabited continents. In at least ...