AD 2021: The China-US Trade War: When Will it End?

November 17, 2021

The escalating US-China trade tensions has resulted in the rise of two separate spheres of influence in both trade and technology and contributed to reshaping the global trade landscape. In order to de-escalate the conflict, the two hegemonies signed the Phase One trade deal in January 2020. Amid the COVID-19 outbreak that undermined trade flows worldwide, China managed however to purchase around 60% of the committed amount for trade in goods in the Phase One deal. The main goal of US in addressing trade imbalances with China was offset with the increasing trade deficits with other industrial countries such as EU, Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico. The aim of this session is to answer some critical questions related to the US-China trade prospects. Given the different episodes of uncertainty, including the COVID-19 outbreak, what are the urgent areas of collaboration between the US and China? What are the shortcomings of Phase One trade deal and the expectations of Phase Two deal? What might be the optimal alternative approach to purchase commitments in managing the trade imbalances? As the Biden administration is not inclined to immediately review the US policy toward China, what will be the consequences of maintaining tariffs in 2021 on both economies? The deep intertwining of the EU economies, the US and China implies that the trade war is having spillover effects that go beyond the imposed tariffs on China. What are the different implications for the EU in the context of the current crisis? Moderator: Steve Clemons, Editor at Large, The Hill Speakers: - Uri Dadush, Senior Fellow, Policy Center for the New South - Renato Flores, Director, International Intelligence Unit, Fundaçao Getulio Vargas, Brazil - Anabel Gonzalez, Deputy Director-General, World Trade Organization - Adam Posen, President, Peterson Institute for International Economics, USA

Speakers
Uri Dadush
Non-Resident Senior Fellow
Uri Dadush is non-resident Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, where he served as Senior Fellow from its founding in 2014 until 2022. He is Research Professor at the School of Public Policy, University of Maryland and a non-resident scholar at Bruegel. He is based in Washington, DC, and is Principal of Economic Policy International, LLC, providing consulting services to the World Bank and to other international organizations as well as corporations. Previously, he served as Director of the International Economics Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and, at the World Bank, was Director of the International Trade, Economic Policy, and Development Prospects Departments. In the private sector before that he was President of the Economist Int ...

RELATED CONTENT

  • August 18, 2015
    OCP Policy Center and the German Marshall Fund of the United States, in partnership with the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Institute, organized an Atlantic Strategy Group conference on June 23rd and 24th, 2015 in São Paulo, Brazil with a focus on trade, energy, food, and Geopolitical System...
  • Authors
    January 30, 2015
    “In my view, China’s very high rates of saving and of investment in infrastructure, plant and equipment, Rand D, and human capital should be seen more as a source of strength, than of weakness. There has, of course, been overinvestment in some sectors, such as heavy industry and housing in some regions, but China’s GDP and infrastructure stock per capita is still just a fraction of that of the most advanced countries, and the country’s potential to catch-up remains largely unexploit ...
  • Authors
    Mohamed Mouline
    January 1, 2014
    L’Afrique du Sud est une république fédérale, fondée sur une démocratie parlementaire. Avec une superficie de 1,2 million de km² et une population de 50 millions d’habitants, elle est la première puissance économique du continent africain, représentant, à elle seule, 30 % du PIB de l’Afrique Subsaharienne et 66 % de celui de l’Afrique Australe. Son PIB est de 420 milliards de dollars et son PIB par habitant est de 5 860 dollars. Ce pays est parvenu à réinsérer son économie dans les ...
  • Authors
    Ian Lesser
    November 18, 2013
    This policy brief argues for a closer relationship between Morocco and the United States. Morocco’s geo-economic position is evolving in ways that will shape U.S. and international interests in the country and open new avenues for cooperation. Key drivers of change in this context include Morocco’s stake in greater economic integration in the Maghreb, a growing role in Africa, new energy and infrastructure projects, and the emergence of Morocco as a hub for communications around th ...
  • Authors
    Françoise Nicolas
    January 1, 2011
    La montée en puissance de la Chine et de l’Inde domine les débats économiques depuis quelques années déjà. Poursuivant une stratégie d’internationalisation résolue, les entreprises chinoises et indiennes sont désormais présentes dans bon nombre de régions du globe. Ce dynamisme n’a pas manqué de susciter des inquiétudes mais aussi des espoirs, notamment dans le monde en développement, où ces deux pays sont perçus comme des partenaires potentiellement plus bienveillants que les pays ...