Russian-Ukrainian war: Regional & Global consequences

April 21, 2022

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a military action in Ukraine. This operation and subsequent events is having a global impact, with far-reaching political and economic implications. In the short term, the conflict will affect the global economy through three main channels: financial markets, commodity prices and supply chain disruptions. But in the long run, implications are complex to gauge and the West is heading to a decoupling from Russia on several fronts. This webinar aims to better understand the economic and political consequences of the war on the world and the Southern countries and their population.

  • What are the major impacts to be expected regarding the spiraling of energy prices taking into account the balance of gains and losses?
  • Will the crisis accentuate the world division between the two superpowers?
  • Which evolutions in the European Union and its external relations?
Speakers
Abdelaaziz Ait Ali
Manager - Economics
Abdelaaziz Ait Ali is a principal Economist and head of the Research Department at the Policy Center for the New South. He joined the Center in 2014 after five years of experience at the Central Bank of Morocco. He worked as an economist in the International Studies and Relations Department and was analyzing the real estate price index and financial asset prices for monetary policy and financial stability purposes. Since then, Abdelaaziz has focused on cyclical and structural issues of the Moroccan economy, including macroeconomic management and industrial policy design. He has published articles on the reform of the exchange rate regime in the Moroccan economy and its implications for macroeconomic regulation, as well as on the evolution of the macroeconomic framework over th ...
Carlos Gaspar
Senior Researcher, IPRI NOVA
Carlos Gaspar is a researcher at the Portuguese Institute of International Relations (IPRI NOVA). He studied Law and History at the Classical University of Lisbon, took a Master's degree in Political Science and International Relations at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris and holds a PhD in History and International Relations from the New University of Lisbon. He was Advisor to Presidents Ramalho Eanes, Mário Soares and Jorge Sampaio. He was an advisor to the Board of Directors of the Fundação Oriente and the Instituto de Defesa Nacional. Mr. Gaspar was also a member of the European Council on Foreign Relations and of the Real Instituto Elcano. He is Author of The Post-Cold War (2016); The Scale of Europe (2017); Raymond Aron and the Cold War (2018); The Return of Anar ...
Frank Mattheis
Research Fellow, ULB
Frank Mattheis works on governance structures beyond the nation state, chiefly in relation to regionalism. His publications and projects deal with processes of region-making/unmaking, comparative regionalism as well as North-South and South-South interregionalism. He was previously based at the Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation, University of Pretoria (South Africa) as a senior researcher, where he first coordinated a work package for the ATLANTIC FUTURE FP7-project and later carried out postdoctoral project for the German Academic Exchange Service. Prior, he was senior research fellow at the Centre for Area Studies of the University of Leipzig (Germany), first as part of the research team on “Changing Stateness in Africa”, working on the interplay between Brazilia ...
Leonardo Paz Neves
Researcher, FGV IIU
Leonardo Paz Neves is an International Intelligence Analyst at the International Intelligence Unit from the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) and Lecturer at the Department of International Relations from the Ibmec College. In addition, he worked as Project Coordinator and Coordinator for Studies and Debates on the Brazilian Centre for International Relations (CEBRI), also worked together with the Civil Affairs Section of the Brazilian Joint Centre for Peacekeeping Operations (CCOPAB), from the Brazilian Armed Forces and is the former Executive Coordinator of the Group of Analysis on International Conflicts Prevention (GAPCon/UCAM). He has experience in Political Science and International Relations, focusing on international conflicts, failed states/rogue states, security polici ...
Lorena Ruano
Professor of International Relations, CIDE
Lorena Ruano is Professor of International Relations at CIDE, Mexico City, since 2003. Her research and teaching focus on European integration and relations between Europe and Latin America. She graduated from El Colegio de México and Oxford University (UK). She was Jean Monnet Fellow at the EUI (Italy). ...
Eduard Soler
Senior Research Fellow, CIDOB
Eduard Soler i Lecha is a Senior Research Fellow at CIDOB (Barcelona Centre for International Affairs). Between 2016 and 2019, he was scientific coordinator of MENARA, a European project on geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and North Africa. He holds a PhD in International Relations from the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Dr. Soler i Lecha is a political scientist and a part-time lecturer in International Relations at the Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals and at Ramon Llull-Blanquerna University. From 2013 to 2017 he lead the El Hiwar project on Euro-Arab diplomacy at the College of Europe (Bruges) and in 2010 he was seconded to the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs as an advisor in the Direction General for the Mediterranean, the Maghreb and the Middle Ea ...

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    Inácio F. Araújo
    Ademir Rocha
    Karina Sass
    August 12, 2022
    The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, scaled up the ongoing conflict in Donbas beyond its regional borders, hindering and halting different aspects of economic life. Considering the internal geography of Ukraine’s economic structure, the damages to physical infrastructure and supply chain disruptions are likely to propagate to other parts of the country through an intricate plot of production and income linkages. From a disaggregated analysis of multiregional and mul ...
  • Authors
    June 27, 2022
    Three questions to Jamal Machrouh   This article was initially published on https://www.institutmontaigne.org/   Morocco was among the countries not taking part in the March 2 UN General Assembly vote following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This position raised questions in Europe as Morocco is Europe's largest partner in the Maghreb. Jamal Machrouh, Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, sheds light on Morocco's perceived neutrality in the Ukrainian conflict in o ...
  • April 21, 2022
    On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a military action in Ukraine. This operation and subsequent events is having a global impact, with far-reaching political and economic implications. In the short term, the conflict will affect the global economy through three main channels: financia...
  • Authors
    March 29, 2022
    The heavy financial sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine sparked speculations that the weaponization of access to reserves in dollars, euros, pounds, and yen would spark a division in the international monetary order. China would tend to strengthen its own international payments system and accelerate the establishment of its currency – the Renminbi – as a rival reserve currency to reduce its vulnerability to moves of a similar nature against it. Countries facing geopoli ...
  • Authors
    Patricia Ahanda
    February 23, 2022
    Le Sommet Union européenne (UE) - Union africaine (UA), qui s’est tenu à Bruxelles les 17 et 18 février 2022, entend marquer un tournant dans les relations entre les deux continents. L’agenda européen pour l’année 2022 met au centre de ses priorités les relations Europe - Afrique. Celles-ci sont aussi l'un des principaux axes défendus par la Présidence française du Conseil de l’Union européenne (PFUE) et le Président français Emmanuel Macron dans de son discours inaugur ...
  • Authors
    January 13, 2022
    As part of the lengthy fight against climate change, the European Union (EU) has introduced a Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), among its "Fit for 55" package, intended to deliver the EU's intermediate target of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 55% from 1990 levels by 2030. This proposal is deemed "bold, complicated, even controversial." If implemented, it will undoubtedly disrupt trade relations between the EU and its main partners and transform energy dynamics i ...
  • Authors
    Laurence Nardon
    Siméon Rust
    December 6, 2021
    Thanks to the positive momentum in transatlantic relations brought about by the arrival of the Biden administration, significant progress is expected on a range of key digital issues. New rules are emerging that are designed to level the playing field for economic actors and ensure the respect of civil liberties, while significant new investments in technological innovation are taking place amid considerable industrial reorganizations. This paper proposes to shed light on seven part ...
  • Authors
    December 18, 2020
    Avec du suspense jusqu’à la dernière minute, comme l’Union européenne (UE) aime le faire, le 10 décembre 2020 le Conseil européen a finalement donné son accord pour le budget de l’Union 2021-2027 (1,8 milliards d’euros[1]) et du Fonds de récupération et de relance pour faire face aux conséquences économiques et sociales de la Covid-19 dans les pays de l’UE. Le Fonds répartira entre les États membres 750 milliards d’euros entre 2021 et 2023 (sous le nom de « EU Next Generation »), 36 ...
  • Authors
    Natalia Cotarelli
    Thiago Cavalcante Simonato
    Vinicius Almeida Vale
    Jaqueline Coelho Visentin
    April 18, 2020
    The impact of the crisis in the Greek economy was not uniform among the regions, threatening socioeconomic cohesion. In this paper, we explore the concept of the income multiplier in a multi-regional input–output setting, in the context of the Greek recession, showing empirical evidence for the increasing magnitude of the multiplier during the recession period. The main results reveal a complex system of interregional relations on some of whose structural characteristics the cyclica ...