Podcasts

Back

New administration in Washington: it is not impossible for Trump to leave NATO

31
January 2025
Helmut Sorge & Daniel Vajdich

NATO faces uncertainty under a second Trump administration, with increased pressure on European allies to boost defense spending. Trump questions NATO’s relevance without a stronger focus on China, raising the possibility of reduced U.S. contributions or withdrawal. European nations must take on greater security responsibilities while addressing concerns over U.S. troop presence and nuclear weapons. The war in Ukraine remains pivotal, as its outcome could shape China’s stance on Taiwan. A Russian victory may embolden further aggression against NATO-aligned states, testing U.S. commitments. Meanwhile, Washington shifts focus to Latin America, particularly Cuba and Venezuela, while Africa gains strategic importance due to critical materials. Despite this, U.S. military presence in Africa remains limited, with AFRICOM still based in Germany. Some propose relocating it to Morocco, but regional complexities hinder the move. The future of U.S. engagement in NATO and global security hinges on shifting priorities and burden-sharing agreements.

RELATED CONTENT

  • July 31, 2025
    This episode explores Africa's role amid a shifting global order marked by fragmentation and competing blocs. It examines whether African states are passive responders or active shapers of new strategic alignments like BRICS+ and South–South cooperation. The discussion also addresses Af...
  • Authors
    Bruno Saraiva
    July 21, 2025
    This article assesses the economic performance of the original BRICS economies, relative to the growth and currency appreciation projections presented in the papers that introduced the acronym, prior to the grouping becoming a diplomatic, political, and economic reality. It also discusses the BRICS agenda in the current challenging geopolitical context, in which economic fragmentation tends to raise costs for the global economy and presents considerable obstacles for emerging and de ...
  • July 18, 2025
    Vingt ans après sa création, le Parlement panafricain demeure un organe institutionnel marginalisé au sein de l’Union africaine. Pensé comme instrument de représentation des peuples africains, il n’a jamais acquis les prérogatives ni les relais lui permettant de jouer un rôle politique important. Ce Policy Paper analyse les raisons de cette impasse à partir de trois angles : la faiblesse institutionnelle et le déficit de légitimité du PAP ; le blocage du Protocole de Malabo, révélat ...
  • Authors
    Bruno Saraiva
    July 14, 2025
    The BRICS+ group of countries met in Rio de Janeiro over the weekend of 6-7 July. The original group – Brazil, Russia, India, China and, soon after, South Africa – emerged as the materialization of a work of fiction. Jim O’Neill, then chief economist at Goldman Sachs, produced a report in 2001 drawing attention to the rise of these countries as emerging regional powers in global economic growth. ...
  • July 11, 2025
    In this episode, we discuss whether Africa’s sub-regions foster unity or deepen divides, examine how they handle political crises, and consider the impact of global powers on regional dynamics. We explore what’s needed for stronger cooperation and how Africa can preserve its diversity w...
  • Authors
    Pepe Zhang
    Fernando Straface
    June 13, 2025
    This Paper was originally published on cebri.org Within an ever-evolving system of multilateral development banks (MDB) currently reshaped by four structural geo-economic trends, the emergence of new MDBs like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Development Bank (NDB) carries great geopolitical significance. Yet the new MDBs, attuned to institutional and operational realities, have not upended the MDB system. Their relationship with long-e ...
  • Authors
    Fadoua Ammari
    May 12, 2025
    This Policy Brief explores the potential evolution of the United Nations’ stance on the Moroccan Sahara issue in light of recent diplomatic developments. It builds on the reaffirmed U.S. support for Morocco's proposed Autonomy Plan, which has played a key role in broadening international consensus in favor of a pragmatic resolution. Despite positive signs within the Security Council, the UN-led process remains stalled, largely due to persistent divisions among member states and th ...
  • Authors
    Fadoua Ammari
    April 30, 2025
    Ce Policy Brief examine les perspectives d’évolution de la position des Nations Unies sur le dossier du Sahara marocain à la lumière des récentes dynamiques diplomatiques. Il s’appuie sur la réaffirmation du soutien américain au Plan d’autonomie proposé par le Maroc, qui a contribué à élargir un consensus international en faveur d’une solution pragmatique. Malgré des signes positifs au sein du Conseil de sécurité, le processus onusien demeure bloqué, notamment en raison de divisions ...
  • April 29, 2025
    تعيش قضية الصحراء المغربية لحظة مفصلية، وسط تطورات دبلوماسية متسارعة وتحولات في مواقف القوى الكبرى، على رأسها الولايات المتحدة. تسلط الحلقة الضوء على دينامية جديدة تفتح الباب أمام حل نهائي لهذا النزاع الإقليمي المفتعل. نقف عند مستجدات الموقف الأممي، خصوصًا إحاطة المبعوث ديميستورا، وتزاي...