Back

Les Mardis du PCNS 28/07/2020 : أزمة كورونا وتدبير ميزانية 2021

July 28, 2020
Related topics: 
Economy

بعد تفشي فيروس كورونا المستجد في جل مناطق العالم، اختلفت طرق التصدي له من دولة إلى أخرى. حيث اعتمدت الدول قرارات متفاوتة من حيث الصرامة في ظل الحد من تفشي هذا الوباء. وفي نفس الصدد، اتُخذت عدة قرارات لدعم المواطنين لكي يتاح لهم المرور من هذه الأزمة بأقل الأضرار الممكنة في مختلف القطاعات والمجالات. غير أن هذه الأزمـة قد شـكلت نقطـة بدايـة وسـبب بـروز اضطرابـات اقتصاديـة واجتماعيـة عميقـة فـي المغـرب وفـي العالـم بأسـره، مـما أدى إلى إبراز أهمية سؤال الدولة في الظرفية الحالية باعتبارها الهيئـة الوحيـدة القـادرة علـى حمايـة السـكان ومواجهـة تأثيـرات الأزمـة السـلبية. الجدير بالملاحظة أن الاقتصاد الوطني كباقي اقتصادات العالم يواجه هذه الأزمة غير المسبوقة بسبب تداعيات انتشار الفيروس، ما يؤدي إلى إعادة النظر في الميزانية العامة للنظام المالي كمحور تنتظم في إطاره وتسير وفق مقتضياته مختلف أنشطة المؤسسات والمرافق الحكومية. فكيف سيتم التعامل مع ميزانية الدولة لسنة 2021 لاسيما وأن المالية العامة لهذه السنة تتراجع بسبب أحداث وتداعيات أزمة كورونا على المدى المتوسط إلى الطويل؟ أي توجه للسياسة المالية للسنة المقبلة في حين أن صناع القرار يقفون أمام خيارين: استعادة أرصدة الموازنة للميزانية العامة أم دعم الانتعاش الاقتصادي من خلال سياسة توسعية. ما هو المسار الأكثر احتمالا؟ وفي نفس السياق، ونظرا لتداعيات الأزمة، خفضت وكالة "فيتش" الدولية للتصنيف الائتماني من توقعاتها بخصوص المغرب. فكيف ينبغي أن يؤثر هذا الوضع الجديد على تصميم ميزانية 2021؟ المسيرة: إيمان لهريش، مسؤولة عن البرامج بمركز السياسات من أجل الجنوب الجديد المتدخلون: عبد الله سرحان، خبير في المالية العامة وكاتب عام سابق للمجلس الأعلى للحسابات ثريا لحرش، مستشارة برلمانية ومنسقة المجموعة الكونفدرالية الديمقراطية للشغل

Speakers
Imane Lahrich
Head – Research Valorization
Imane Lahrich is the Head of Research Valorization Department, having previously served as a Partnerships & Research Support Officer at the Policy Center for the New South since 2019. She mainly worked on security-development related projects. She has experience as a Project Manager in a Strategic Intelligence firm (2017-2019) and as a research consultant in the MENA region, focusing on international development and the Rule of Law. Imane Lahrich holds a Master's in Political Studies and a Bachelor's in Political Science from Mohammed V University of Rabat. She also participated in a one-year exchange program at Masaryk University in the Czech Republic under the EMMAG MUNDUS Excellence scholarship.     ...
Touria Lahrach
Coordinatrice du groupe parlementaire de la CDT à la Chambre des conseillers
...

RELATED CONTENT

  • China on the way back to rebalancing
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    September 28, 2020
    CGTN, 25 September 2020 China’s economy keeps recovering from the coronavirus pandemic-led crisis through the third quarter of 2020, as revealed by the numbers of August activity. Its GDP grew by 3.2% in the second quarter, after falling by 6.8% in the first quarter, in both cases as compared from a year before. It is now the only major economy expected to exhibit growth this year. Successful containment of the pandemics has allowed it to be first-in-first-out relative to others. ...
  • Dependency and disconnect of U.S. financial markets
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    September 22, 2020
    U.S. stock and corporate bond markets performed extraordinarily well from the March financial shock caused by covid-19 to the end of last month. Then, three consecutive weeks of decline in the three major stock market indexes have been followed this week by a global slump attributed to fears of new lockdowns. A period of disconnect of financial markets with the underlying real economy has culminated in a revelation of the former’s high dependency to Federal Reserve policies. Discon ...
  • Download PDF
    L'or : l'actif refuge des temps difficiles
    Authors
    Henri-Louis Vedie
    September 18, 2020
    On assiste, ces derniers mois, à un rebond des cours de l'or, le portant vers de nouveaux sommets. L'analyse des cours de ce précieux métal depuis deux siècles montre une grande stabilité jusqu'en 1971, date de l'abandon de la convertibilité or /dollar par les Etats-Unis, mais aussi de son mouvement erratique depuis cette date. Soumise aux lois du marché, cette matière première voit son cours dépendre essentiellement de la demande. Evolution qui confirme cet actif comme valeur refug ...
  • Download PDF
    Intégration monétaire en Afrique de l'Ouest : histoire, théorie, politique
    Authors
    Youssef El Jai
    September 15, 2020
    Avant l'ère coloniale, l'émission d'argent en Afrique de l'Ouest dépendait de la traite des esclaves. Avec l'avènement du régime colonial, les pièces d'argent ont été importées puis progressivement imposées comme outil de coercition. La trajectoire postcoloniale a été différente pour les anciennes colonies britanniques et françaises. Alors que les premières ont retrouvé leur souveraineté monétaire, les secondes ont conservé une union monétaire sous l’égide de la France. La propositi ...
  • Download PDF
    Diversification and the World Trading System
    Authors
    Uri Dadush
    Abdelaaziz Ait Ali
    Mohammed Al Doghan
    Muhammad Bhatti
    Carlos Braga
    Abdulelah Darandary
    Anabel González
    Niclas Poitiers
    September 15, 2020
    Diversification is important because it is associated with economic growth and reduced volatility. Diversification of exports, which provide foreign exchange and enable imports of critical goods, services, and know-how, is crucial for developing countries. The question we address in this brief is how export diversification is affected by trade policies, including multilateral rules, regional trade agreements, and national measures. The record on diversification is poor across a larg ...
  • Don’t Expect Miracles from the Multilaterals
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    September 11, 2020
    Latin American and Caribbean economies need help, but organizations like the IDB are also stretched thin. First appeared at Americas Quarterly With Latin America and the Caribbean potentially facing years of difficulties due to the pandemic and related economic crises, attention has shifted to what multilateral institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) might do to help. There’s no doubt they can play a crucial role in preventing another lost decade in the region. But ...
  • L’urbanisme numérique au Maroc tiendra-t-il ses promesses ?
    Authors
    Mostafa Kheireddine
    September 4, 2020
    L’action publique urbaine dans le monde connait une métamorphose grâce à la montée en puissance du numérique dans la production et la gestion de la ville. Si le Maroc a franchi des étapes importantes dans la dématérialisation de certains services publics (impôts, cadastre, marchés publics, etc.), en revanche, d’autres secteurs peinent à suivre la même voie au moment où l’actuelle crise sanitaire de la Covid-19  vient rappeler l’urgence de la structuration de l’écosystème digital et ...
  • Download PDF
    Brazil, South Korea: Two Tales of Climbing an Income Ladder
    Authors
    Otaviano Canuto
    September 3, 2020
    The “middle income trap” may well characterize the experience of Brazil and most of Latin America since the 1980s. Conversely, South Korea maintained its pace of evolution, reaching a high-income status. Such divergence of economic growth can be related to their distinctive performances of domestic accumulation of technological and organizational capabilities. Their different approaches to global value chains and trade globalization reinforced such discrepancy in domestic accumulati ...
  • Download PDF
    The national automotive industry faced with the Covid-19: Should we be worried about the impact on the current account?
    Authors
    Abdelaaziz Ait Ali
    September 2, 2020
    The year 2020 is one of the most difficult years for the global automotive industry. The pandemic first appeared in a region of China known for its developed automotive sector. Initially, it was the South Asian manufacturers who first felt the impact of the shutdown in China before the pandemic shifted to Europe and the United States and before the disruption of value chains took on a global dimension. In Morocco, the sector has not remained immune to this turbulent context and its ...
  • Does aid stimulate foreign direct investment? The role of social cohesion
    Authors
    Mina Baliamoune
    Tony Addison
    August 24, 2020
    We explore the effects of foreign aid on FDI in a large number of aid-recipient countries using data for the period 1985-2008 and focusing in particular on the impact of the interplay of aid and social cohesion. The preliminary results suggest that the independent effect of aid on FDI is negative in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Latin America (LAC) and positive in other regions, while aid seems to crowd out FDI in countries with high levels of human capital. In addition, we find that ...