Publications /
Paper in Academic Journals

Back
Climate change in Brazil: dealing with uncertainty in agricultural productivity models and the implications for economy-wide impacts
Authors
Bruno Souza
June 18, 2021

This paper estimates the economic impacts of climate change over the Brazilian regions until the end of the century. We estimate the direct and indirect impact of the projected changes in climate on the yield of the country’s main crops. The results point to a broad spatial heterogeneity of impacts across the country. Using the extreme scenarios created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (RCP 2.6 and 8.5), our predictions indicate that the average annual losses due to climate change range from 0.4% to 1.8% of Brazilian gross domestic product until the end of the century.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    João Gabriel Sacco
    January 23, 2024
    - Brazil’s latest tax reform will replace five taxes on consumption with one single VAT to promote greater efficiency and sectoral isonomy. - Forecasts produced by a detailed ICGE model point to sizeable gains in GDP exceeding 4% in the long run, even if spatially unequal. - Exceptions to the rules reduce potential benefits in efficiency terms. - Policies meant to promote regional development and close the gap deepened by the reform partially achieve their goal at the expense of ...
  • Authors
    Xiaofeng Wang
    October 13, 2023
    The surprising victory of Javier Milei, the unconventional ‘anarcho-capitalist’ candidate, in the August primaries ahead of Argentina’s October 2023 general election, can be largely credited to his commitment to dollarize the Argentine economy, a move perceived as the ultimate solution to bring an end to the nation's economic turmoil. The potential shift from the local currency to the dollar has sparked concerns about Argentina's bilateral currency swap line with China. This swap l ...
  • Authors
    October 24, 2022
    The pandemic has hit Latin America hard, and its economic recovery has been slower than in other regions. In addition to the legacy of higher public indebtedness, the pandemic left scars on the labor market and the human capital formation of future workers. The COVID-19 crisis has receded in Latin America but has left a significant toll. Reported deaths from the pandemic are currently low and converging to global levels. The average excess mortality during the pandemic was among t ...
  • Authors
    Gerson Javier Pérez Valbuena
    Diana Ricciulli
    Jaime Bonet
    Inácio Araújo
    Fernando Perobelli
    December 28, 2021
    This paper analyses the regional economic differences in the impact of lockdown measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 ordered by Colombia’s national gov­ernment. Using an input-output model, we estimate regional economic losses by extracting a group of formal and informal workers from different sectors of the economy. Results show regional differences in the impact of lockdown measures on their labour markets, local economies, and productive sectors. We also find that periphera ...
  • Authors
    Bruno Souza
    June 18, 2021
    This paper estimates the economic impacts of climate change over the Brazilian regions until the end of the century. We estimate the direct and indirect impact of the projected changes in climate on the yield of the country’s main crops. The results point to a broad spatial heterogeneity of impacts across the country. Using the extreme scenarios created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (RCP 2.6 and 8.5), our predictions indicate that the average annual losses ...
  • March 3, 2021
    Brazil, an oil-exporting nation, was still struggling to recover from the depression which started around 2014/15 when it was hit by a quick succession of shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and the oil price collapse. The global pandemic triggered major economic dislocations and contractions in foreign and domestic markets, which further exacerbated the fall in demand for oil, sending world prices tumbling further. Poverty was already widespread in Brazil pre-pandemic. And despite recen ...
  • Authors
    Inácio F. Araújo
    December 18, 2020
    We estimate the contents of services value-added incorporated in goods exports in different countries in Latin America, exploring the local dimension of the results. We use inter-regional input–output analysis to trace and map domestic value-added embedded in those countries' exports. We add to the discussion of global value chains the internal, within-country geography of trade in value-added, since the set of locational preferences that help understanding the spatial patterns of n ...
  • Authors
    Inácio F. Araújo
    October 27, 2020
    We estimate the contents of services value-added incorporated in goods exports in different countries in Latin America, exploring the local dimension of the results. We use inter-regional input-output analysis to trace and map domestic value-added embedded in those countries’ exports. We add to the discussion of global value chains the internal, withincountry geography of trade in value-added, since the set of locational preferences that help understanding the spatial patterns of na ...
  • Authors
    Jaime Bonet-Morón
    Diana Ricciulli-Marín
    Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena
    Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte
    Inácio F. Araújo
    Fernando S. Perobelli
    July 29, 2020
    The aim of this paper is to assess the regional economic impact of the lockdown measures ordered by the national government to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Using an input–output model, we estimate the economic loss of extracting groups of formal and informal workers from different economic sectors. Results show monthly economic losses that represent between 0.5% and 6.1% of national GDP, depending on the scenario considered. Accommodation and food services, real estate, administr ...