Plenary X: Tiempos de Cambio en América Latina: Nuevos Vientos en Busca de Una Voz del Sur (in Spani

This article was originally published on Bruegel  A recovery from the COVID-19 recession is underway though the suffering is far from over, especially for the most vulnerable. Inequality is both a consequence of the pandemic and a cause of its severity. Many countries need comprehensive policy change to address its worst effects. At the end of a tragic year marked by pandemic and increased poverty, the miraculously rapid arrival of vaccines stirs great hope. The COVID-19 recession ...

Brazil is one of the countries hardest hit by COVID-19. Apart from the dramatic health implications, COVID-19 will also scar the Brazilian economy, including through a jump in its already high public-sector debt-to-GDP ratio in 2020. Moving forward—or not—with structural reforms aimed at lifting private investment will define whether a sustainableor unsustainable—growth-cum-debt trajectory will prevail in the next decade. The extent to which Brazil regains its attractiveness for for ...

Latin American and Caribbean economies need help, but organizations like the IDB are also stretched thin. First appeared at Americas Quarterly With Latin America and the Caribbean potentially facing years of difficulties due to the pandemic and related economic crises, attention has shifted to what multilateral institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) might do to help. There’s no doubt they can play a crucial role in preventing another lost decade in the region. But ...

The aim of this paper is to assess the regional economic impact of the lockdown measures ordered by the national government to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Using an input–output model, we estimate the economic loss of extracting groups of formal and informal workers from different economic sectors. Results show monthly economic losses that represent between 0.5% and 6.1% of national GDP, depending on the scenario considered. Accommodation and food services, real estate, administr ...

Our senior fellow, Otaviano Canuto, has contributed to Science Direct academic Journal, with a research paper entitled « Does the Brazilian policy for oil revenues distribution foster investment in human capital? », Volume 88, May 2020, 104760. This paper assesses the effect of oil revenues on health and education indicators (measures for human capital) in the Brazilian municipalities using exogenous oil price variations. The Oil Law of 1997, apart from to hugely increase the amoun ...

Last December, Covid-19 news emerged from China and, as the epicenter of the pandemic moved to Europe in February, and then to the United States in March, the news hotspots moved there too. However, there has been only a few global news streams about how South American countries, and Argentina in particular, are fighting against the pandemic. As a country with a new president, who has started this year with a preexistent economic crisis, it is worth giving a look at the current loca ...

The outbreak in China has already affected economic sectors in Latin America. Is there more to come? China’s economy has come to a sudden stop. Large parts of the country remain in shutdown mode after the end of the Lunar New Year holiday, with national passenger traffic declining by 85% on the Wednesday after the break compared to 2019.   Outside of China, the impact of the slowdown has already been felt, with companies like Apple and Land Rover warning of lower production, as pa ...