Africa Economic Symposium (AES) – 4th Edition: Turning Transitions into Growth

SKELETON AGENDA
 

SESSION DESCRIPTIONS

Plenary Session 1: Managing Price, FX, and Rate Spillovers for Growth and Resilience 

Global macro-financial conditions remain tight, with persistent inflation, elevated interest rates in advanced economies, and a strong U.S. dollar amplifying cross-border spillovers. Recent commodity price swings—linked to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions—continue to feed into imported inflation, while volatile capital flows and exchange rate pressures complicate domestic policy trade-offs. For open and import-dependent economies, these dynamics directly affect price stability, external balances, and growth prospects.

Managing these spillovers calls for a pragmatic and coordinated policy mix. Monetary policy must remain credible in anchoring inflation expectations, while avoiding excessive tightening that could suppress recovery. Exchange rate flexibility can help absorb external shocks, but requires careful calibration given pass-through to domestic prices. Fiscal policy should remain targeted and responsive, supporting vulnerable sectors without undermining macroeconomic stability. Strengthening policy coordination and improving transmission mechanisms is essential to enhance resilience in a context of heightened uncertainty.

• How should monetary policy respond to imported inflation without derailing growth?
• What is the appropriate balance between exchange rate flexibility and intervention?
• How can policymakers better manage capital flow volatility in a high-rate global environment?
• What policy mix is most effective in mitigating the domestic impact of external shocks?
   

Parallel Session 1: Fiscal Policy Design for Natural Resource Management

African countries endowed with natural resources face difficult fiscal policy choices as they seek to convert volatile and exhaustible revenues into stable and productive sources of development financing. Commodity price fluctuations, weak revenue predictability, and institutional constraints often complicate budget planning and reduce governments’ ability to sustain public investment over time. At the same time, growing infrastructure needs, social demands, and macroeconomic pressures increase the stakes of sound fiscal design, particularly in countries where resource dependence remains high and economic diversification limited.

Designing effective fiscal frameworks for natural resource management therefore requires more than revenue collection alone. Stronger fiscal rules, stabilization funds, transparent public financial management, and better investment governance are essential to reduce procyclicality and strengthen resilience. The broader challenge is to ensure that natural resource revenues support long-term structural transformation rather than reinforce short-term spending cycles, fiscal vulnerability, and weak intergenerational outcomes.

• How can African countries design fiscal frameworks that reduce vulnerability to commodity price volatility?
• What institutional arrangements are most effective in transforming resource revenues into stable and productive investment?
• How should governments balance short-term fiscal pressures with long-term development and intergenerational equity?
• What governance reforms are needed to improve transparency, accountability, and public trust in natural resource revenue management?
   

Parallel Session 2: Debt Composition, Domestic Capital Markets, and Fiscal Sustainability in Africa 

African policymakers are facing growing fiscal pressures as higher borrowing costs, tighter global financial conditions, and rising debt service obligations constrain the space available for development spending. Yet the issue is not only the level of debt, but also its composition. Over the past decade, debt structures in many African countries have become more complex, with a growing mix of external and domestic liabilities, shorter maturities, and higher exposure to refinancing risks. These shifts have heightened vulnerability while also drawing renewed attention to the role of domestic capital markets in supporting more resilient and better-anchored financing strategies.

In this context, fiscal sustainability depends increasingly on how governments manage the interaction between debt composition, market development, and macroeconomic credibility. Deeper domestic capital markets can help reduce dependence on external financing and improve policy flexibility, but they also raise important questions related to crowding out, investor base diversification, market liquidity, and coordination between debt management and fiscal policy. The central challenge is to build financing structures that are more sustainable, less vulnerable to external shocks, and better aligned with long-term growth and development objectives.

• How does debt composition affect fiscal vulnerability and macroeconomic resilience across African economies?
• What are the main constraints to developing deeper and more efficient domestic capital markets in Africa?
• How can governments strengthen debt management strategies while preserving fiscal space for development priorities?
• What policy mix is needed to align domestic borrowing, market development, and long-term fiscal sustainability?
   

Parallel Session 3: Africa Facing the Abundance of its Natural Resources

Africa’s abundance of natural resources has long been seen as a major economic asset. Yet this wealth has not always translated into inclusive structural transformation. In many countries, resource dependence has coexisted with limited industrial development, low value addition, and high exposure to external shocks. Today, this issue is becoming even more pressing as global competition for strategic resources intensifies, value chains are being reconfigured, and demand for critical minerals is rising in connection with technological and energy transitions.

This evolving context creates both new opportunities and new risks. The way Africa’s natural resources are extracted, processed, traded, and governed will determine the continent’s ability to strengthen its productive systems, deepen regional integration, and capture greater economic value. The challenge is to move beyond an enclave-based extraction model toward stronger productive integration, increased local transformation, and governance frameworks capable of turning resource abundance into a driver of economic sovereignty and sustainable growth.

• Why has the abundance of natural resources not led to sustained structural transformation in many African economies?
• How can African countries capture more value locally through processing, industrial upgrading, and stronger domestic linkages?
• What role can regional integration play in building resource-based value chains and productive ecosystems?
• What policy and institutional conditions are required for natural resource wealth to support inclusive and resilient growth?
   

Parallel Session 4: Climate and Energy Transition for Resilient Growth

Climate and energy transition are becoming a defining dimension of Africa’s growth challenge as climate-related shocks intensify and the global energy landscape undergoes profound change. Rising temperatures, droughts, floods, and other climate stresses are already affecting agricultural productivity, infrastructure, fiscal balances, and livelihoods across the continent. At the same time, shifts in global investment, trade rules, and industrial strategies are creating new pressures and opportunities for African economies seeking to expand energy access, strengthen competitiveness, and sustain development.

Navigating this transition involves complex trade-offs. African countries must respond to climate vulnerability while addressing persistent energy deficits, supporting industrialization, and preserving social inclusion. This requires stronger policy coordination across climate, energy, industry, and finance, as well as greater attention to the affordability, reliability, and developmental implications of transition pathways. The broader issue is how climate and energy transition can be embedded within a growth model that is both resilient and compatible with Africa’s structural transformation ambitions.

• How can African countries advance climate and energy transition while preserving growth and industrialization prospects?
• What financing and policy frameworks are needed to support affordable, reliable, and resilient energy systems?
• How can climate adaptation and mitigation be better integrated into national development and investment strategies?
• What conditions are necessary to ensure that the transition remains socially inclusive and economically just?
   

Plenary Session 2: Technology-Led Structural Transformation and Growth Dynamics

Digital technologies are beginning to reshape production, trade, and service delivery across Africa, but their contribution to structural transformation remains uneven. While sectors such as fintech, telecommunications, and digital services are expanding rapidly, linkages with manufacturing, agriculture, and the broader economy are still limited. The risk is a dual economy where a small number of firms and workers capture most of the gains, while productivity in traditional sectors stagnates. Turning technology into a genuine driver of growth requires more than adoption: it depends on diffusion, firm upgrading, and the ability of workers to transition into new activities. This raises practical challenges around skills, infrastructure reliability, and the cost of digital access. It also brings policy questions on data governance, competition, and the role of the state in supporting innovation ecosystems. The central issue is how to translate technological change into sustained productivity growth and job creation at scale.

• How can digital transformation support structural change beyond leading sectors?
• What policies accelerate technology diffusion across firms and regions?
• How can education and training systems respond to changing skill needs?
• What regulatory frameworks foster innovation while ensuring fair competition?
   

Plenary Session 3: Leaving No One Behind: Social Policies for Inclusive Growth

The demographic transition in Africa represents a pivotal shift that necessitates a fundamental recalibration of social contract models. With the working-age population projected to double by 2050, the focus must shift from reactive welfare toward "productive" social protection that facilitates labor market mobility. This involves a rigorous assessment of education-to-workforce pipelines, ensuring that the next generation is equipped for a modernizing economy. Inclusive growth requires addressing the "double burden" of rising inequality and persistent poverty by institutionalizing safety nets that protect against macroeconomic shocks. By centering social policy on human capital optimization; particularly through health, tertiary education, and gender-parity initiatives; the continent can transform demographic pressure into a powerful engine for domestic consumption. True inclusion hinges on ensuring that the benefits of the transition are not captured by a narrow middle class but are utilized to broaden the economic base

• How can education-to-workforce pipelines be restructured to align with rapidly modernizing labor markets?
• Which social protection designs effectively support sectoral mobility without entrenching dependency?
• How can governments balance the immediate costs of social service provision with the long-term necessity of infrastructure investment?
   

Plenary Session 4: Financing Transitions for Sustainable Growth

Climate, demographic, and technological transitions are reshaping investment needs across African economies, requiring a scale and composition of financing that current systems struggle to deliver. Energy transitions, urban expansion, digital infrastructure, and human capital development all demand sustained investment, yet financing conditions remain tight and uneven. The issue is not only mobilizing more resources but directing them toward projects that support long-term transformation. Domestic financial systems often lack depth, limiting their ability to intermediate savings into productive investment, while private investors face high perceived risks. Bridging this gap requires strengthening public investment management, improving the pipeline of bankable projects, and creating frameworks that reduce uncertainty for private capital. Blended finance, risk-sharing instruments, and institutional reforms can help align incentives, but require strong governance and coordination. Ensuring that financing supports productivity, resilience, and structural change is central to turning ongoing transitions into durable growth.

• How can countries better align financing with long-term structural priorities?
• What reforms can strengthen domestic financial intermediation?
• How can risks be mitigated to attract private investment at scale?
• How can public investment frameworks improve project selection and execution?
   

Special Focus Session: Managing the World Cup Economy

A major event like the FIFA World Cup creates a short-lived economic surge through investment, tourism, and global exposure. The challenge is managing demand pressures while ensuring infrastructure and service upgrades deliver lasting benefits. Aligning projects with long-term priorities and maintaining strong execution discipline is critical.

• How to manage short-term pressures?
• How to secure long-term returns?