Events
Understanding the MENA region in 2022 and Beyond
From
The Policy Center for the New South and the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD) are co-organizing a closed door meeting titled "Understanding the MENA region in 2022 and Beyond”, scheduled to take place on September 7th , 2022 at 03 :00 p.m. (GMT+1).
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is still attempting to chart its own path in the context of economic and global geopolitical shifts, which are further compounded by the disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, new challenges overlap with longstanding dynamics, from wider access to vaccines to economic recovery through diplomatic rapprochement and de-escalation of tensions and conflict resolution. Thus, what are the main geopolitical and economics trends for 2022 and beyond?
I- Geopolitics of the MENA region: Perspectives from inside and outside
The States and societies of the MENA are the objects of profound geopolitical shifts, prompting significant levels of risks and instability. In this regard, the drivers likely to shape the MENA in 2022 and beyond, are likely to remain the same, namely internal dilemmas and foreign influences. What may be different this time is how the internal political dynamics of countries intersect with a shifting regional, as well as broader geopolitical landscape. Indeed, the broader transitions in the international order have significantly accelerated the pace and direction of regional restructuring. The five areas to monitor in 2022 in the MENA region include:
- How the geopolitical competition in the world impacts the MENA?
- Will the geopolitical future of the MENA be marked by either centrifugal or centripetal dynamics or by a combination of both?
II- Economics of the MENA region: Current and future challenges
After the coronavirus crisis, which represents the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression and has led to significant losses in GDP and GDP per capita in several countries around the world, MENA region countries will experience, at least in the short term, another shock related to the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, it should be noted that the impact of this crisis will be unevenly distributed among countries in the region. While exporting countries will benefit from recent increases in energy and food prices, importing countries will be hit hard by this crisis and will see a further deterioration of their fiscal space.
Furthermore, it is worth mentioning that the region is facing new risks, notably inflationary and tightening global market conditions that may result in higher interest rates, which may make macroeconomic management more difficult, especially for oil and commodity importing countries. Four overall economic challenges need to be addressed by MENA region countries in 2022 and beyond:
- What role can regional integration play in promoting economic growth in Mena region countries
- The covid-19 pandemic has exacerbated some of the pre-existing challenges faced by MENA region countries and may accelerate history in the sense that it will accelerate some of the recent trends. This will be the case for globalization and for the 4th industrial revolution so:
How can MENA region countries step up so to take full advantages of the recent digital revolution while mitigating all the risks associated with it, namely the displacement effect associated with the adoption of new technology?
