Energy Transition in the Mediterranean Amidst Geopolitical Pressures and the Energy Crisis Securing Energy, Reshaping Decarbonisation

Location: PCNS

Against the backdrop of the Russian war in Ukraine and its far reaching consequences for energy security worldwide, the wider Mediterranean region has increasingly come into focus as promising region for energy production and supply for Europe. On the one hand, this renewed interest can create economic development and foster the scale-up of renewable energy capacities with a view towards ambitious decarbonisation goals of the region itself, as well as the EU and other countries. With massive potential for the production of renewable energy, the region can be a key actor for the global energy transition. On the other hand, the current energy crisis has led to increased demand for fossil fuel supplies from non-Russian sources, among others countries in the wider Mediterranean region. Countries such as Egypt, Algeria and Israel have increased their production and sale volumes of liquefied natural gas to the EU and gas exploration has been intensified in many countries of the region, in order to maximize the added reserves of natural gas to meet both the needs of local markets and exports.

The energy crisis has thus heavily impacted energy transition plans and roadmaps of many Mediterranean countries and has highlighted the question of how to move ahead with the decarbonisation of Mediterranean energy while securing economic development and the uninterrupted availability of power sources at affordable prices. Climate action in many countries of the region had already before the energy crisis been a low priority – with soaring energy prices and a deteriorating global economic situation, the risk of climate action and adequate decarbonisation strategies being sidelined has now increased drastically. In this context, it is necessary to recalibrate and reshape these policies and strategies with energy security, affordability and sustainability in mind.

In the short- and medium term, fossil fuels will continue to play an important role for global energy supply due to existing economic systems and dependencies, while at the same time the massive scale-up of sources and forms of renewable energy has to be driven forward if countries want to achieve their decarbonisation ambitions. Mediterranean countries’ preconditions in this context differ widely. Fossil fuel producers and exporters, such as Algeria, Egypt and Israel, who are currently profiting from high prices and demand, will have to invest in diversification of their revenues and speed up their move towards renewable energy production if they want to keep their energy market share and achieve their own decarbonisation in the long run. Current energy importers, such as Morocco, Tunisia and Jordan, are well positioned to profit from the rising demand for clean energy by developing their renewable energy production capacities, both for domestic consumption and export. In all cases, the success of these transitions depends on a variety of factors besides the available natural resources: political will, attractiveness for investment, research and development into technologies, the social and environmental compatibility as well as strong partnerships.

In terms of regional relations, the changes in the energy field could have wide-reaching consequences for regional geopolitics. Choices about which new energy sources to develop can have geopolitical consequences and competition surrounding gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean clearly shows conflict potential. On the other hand, the agreement around a shared gas field between Israel and Lebanon paints a picture of possible dynamics surrounding energy even between highly unlikely actors. In parallel, the increasingly visible effects of climate change in the region could create incentives for more regional cooperation, such as in the Jordan-Israel-UAE cooperation on desalinated water and solar energy.

In order to discuss the challenges stated above in more depth and to develop solutions adapted to the Mediterranean context, the Policy Center for the New South and the Regional Programme Energy Security and Climate Change Middle East and North Africa of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS – REMENA) are organizing a workshop targeting a range of actors: policy makers, experts, think tankers and representatives from the private sector from the wider Mediterranean region. This event intends to help to strengthen a shared understanding of the challenges and opportunities of addressing energy-related security risks as well as to developing strategies to balance geopolitics and energy security with decarbonisation in the Mediterranean area, particularly against the backdrop of the energy crisis and to identify regional cooperation potentials around the energy transition.