Publications /
Opinion

Back
Morocco's Natural Gas discoveries of early 2022: What to make of it?
Authors
January 24, 2022

In January 2022, two UK-based oil companies, Chariot Limited and Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC, made positive announcements on two gas fields in Morocco. These natural gas discoveries generated considerable attention. This is often not surprising for a number of reasons: a hydrocarbon discovery (oil and natural gas) is an important event in itself given the prominence of hydrocarbons in global energy (oil and natural gas together account for around 60% of global energy consumption), and in world economic and geopolitical affairs; a discovery creates hopes and expectations, and occasionally leads to disappointment; and a discovery may also generate controversy, either due to a misunderstanding of basic hydrocarbon industry technical concepts, which can lead to misinterpretation, or due to questionable communication on the magnitude of the discovery by the company or companies involved.

A ''promising'' or ''significant'' discovery

In the first instance, we should review the facts. This is a gas discovery on the Lixus Offshore marine permit, with an area of 2,390 km². Located some 40 kilometers off Larache, the permit is held by a consortium made up of Chariot (75%) and the Office National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines (Onhym, 25%), the national oil company of Morocco.  Chariot operates the field and conducts the field work.  The discovery was made at the Anchois-2 site (Anchois-1 was drilled in 2009 on the same permit).  Drilling occurred in the second half of December 2021 at a water depth of around 380 meters to reach a depth of 2,512 meters.

Drilling uncovered evidence of gas accumulation.  Two other positive findings are: an accumulation net thickness of 100 meters (up from 55 meters for the net productive zone discovered by Anchois-1, according to Chariot) and a high quality of reserves.  The first piece of good news should however be tempered, as the 100-meter thickness is in fact spread over six zones, ranging from eight to 30 meters each, according to Onhym.

In short, drilling results are ''promising'' according to Onhym, while Chariot speaks of a "significant" discovery.  And that is not the end of the matter. Morocco's national company indicated further in-depth analysis is to be conducted to refine gas potential assessments.  Not much to write home about, of course, but that's not the point.  The oil and gas industry operates on a different timeline and timeframe than do the media, policy makers and public opinion.  It is indeed far too early at this point to advance specific numbers.

Anchois in production within three years?

Anchois-2 drilling data is being analyzed and other drillings will be conducted. The Anchois-1 well can be used for further field development. Chariot and Onhym now intend to work for quick development of this discovery. In an interview with SNRTNews, Onhym CEO Amina Benkhadra indicated that production could begin by the end of 2024.

Chariot and Onhym's communication following the Anchois-2 drilling operation has been highly professional.  Chariot has in the past however released figures that might still fuel controversy today.  The company estimated recoverable resources for Anchois-1 to be around 30 billion cubic meters and for the entire Lixus permit to be 80 billion cubic meters, based on a study by specialist consultants NSAI.  These estimates are highly speculative as they refer to both contingent and prospective resources.  After Anchois-2, Chariot took a more sober approach by not including such estimates, which are at the very least confusing to non-specialist audiences.

Caution and optimism

Another UK oil company, Predator Oil & Gas Holdings based in Jersey, recently announced significant estimates in the Guercif Basin from the MOU-1 and MOU-4 drillings.  Unlike Lixus, this is onshore work.  Predator reported an estimated 11 billion cubic meters of natural gas, but this too is a potential resource estimate and should therefore be treated with extreme caution.  

Whilst maintaining cool heads, 2021 heralds a number of positive signs for Morocco's gas prospects.  These include Sound Energy's Tendrara project and activities of SDX Energy, both London-based firms with onshore exploration licenses in Morocco.  No cause for celebration, obviously, but projects and players to watch closely in the coming months.

 All opinions expressed in this text are the sole responsibility of the author.

Link to original version (French)

Link to arabic version

RELATED CONTENT

  • March 1, 2022
    Known for being a climate change hotspot, Morocco is at the forefront of a climate disaster. Consequences are already being felt, whether in the form of increasing temperature or a downward trend in precipitations, which directly threaten the water security and, by extension, the social-ecological systems of the country. The systems by which food, energy, and water are produced, distributed, and consumed heavily depend on one another. Their implicit feedbacks and links are not linea ...
  • Authors
    January 24, 2022
    في يناير/كانون الثاني 2022، أعلنت شركتا التنقيب عن النفط والغاز، شاريوت ليمتد وبريداتور أويل آند غاز هولدينغ، المستقرتان معا في المملكة المغربية، أخبارا سارة حول رخصتين من رخصهما في البلاد. وقد أفاضت اكتشافات الغاز الطبيعي المذكورة الكثير من المداد. غير أن هذا الأمر ليس بالمفاجئ عموما، وذلك لعدة أسباب. حيث يعتبر اكتشاف الهيدروكاربونات (النفط أو الغاز الطبيعي) حدثا مهما في حد ذاته بالنظر إلى مكانة الهيدروكاربونات على الساحة الطاقية (يمثل النفط والغاز الطبيعي مجتمعين أقل من 60 في الما ...
  • Authors
    January 24, 2022
    En janvier 2022, deux sociétés pétrolières, Chariot Limited et Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC, toutes les deux basées au Royaume-Uni, ont annoncé de bonnes nouvelles sur deux permis au Maroc. Ces découvertes de gaz naturel ont fait couler beaucoup d’encre. De façon générale, ce n’est d’ailleurs pas très étonnant, et ce pour plusieurs raisons : une découverte d’hydrocarbures (pétrole et gaz naturel) est un événement important en soi au regard de la place des hydrocarbures sur la ...
  • Authors
    January 24, 2022
    In January 2022, two UK-based oil companies, Chariot Limited and Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC, made positive announcements on two gas fields in Morocco. These natural gas discoveries generated considerable attention. This is often not surprising for a number of reasons: a hydrocarbon discovery (oil and natural gas) is an important event in itself given the prominence of hydrocarbons in global energy (oil and natural gas together account for around 60% of global energy consump ...
  • November 9, 2021
     Lors de la COP 26, il est probable que l'on accorde plus d'attention aux grands émetteurs comme la Chine et les États-Unis qu'à la situation des petits pays en développement, pourtant plus exposés aux conséquences du changement climatique. Le Maroc fait partie de cette catégorie. Ce Policy Brief examine les objectifs d'atténuation du Maroc dans le cadre de ses CDN et ses performances à ce jour avant de s'intéresser aux mesures nécessaires pour atteindre l'objectif à moyen terme de ...
  • October 15, 2021
    The European Commission recently presented several legislative proposals as part of its “Fit for 55” initiative, designed to accelerate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. A Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has been proposed as part of this initiative. The CBAM would be complementary to the EU’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), involving CBAM certificates issued to importers based on the integrated emissions intensity of the produc ...
  • Authors
    Chami Abdelilah
    Derj Atar
    Hammi Ibtissem
    Morazzo Mariano
    Naciri Yassine
    with the technical support of AFRY
    July 29, 2021
    As decarbonization is a long-term process and requires significant investments, specific financial and non- financial measures will need to be implemented, both in the short and long term, to facilitate this transition. In Part II of Morocco’s decarbonization pathway Policy Brief series, an update of the decarbonization scenarios was presented. It revealed that the Increased Ambition and Green Development scenarios achieve higher decarbonization targets than current policy. It showe ...
  • Authors
    Chami Abdelilah
    Derj Atar
    Hammi Ibtissem
    Morazzo Mariano
    Naciri Yassine
    with the technical support of AFRY
    July 23, 2021
    La décarbonisation est un processus à long terme qui nécessite des investissements importants. Ainsi, des mesures financières et non financières spécifiques devront être mises en œuvre, à la fois à court et à long termes, pour faciliter cette transition. Dans la deuxième partie de la série de Policy Briefs sur la trajectoire de décarbonisation du Maroc, une mise à jour des scénarios de décarbonisation a été présentée. Elle révèle que les scénarios « Ambition accélérée » et « Dévelop ...
  • Authors
    Chami Abdelilah
    Derj Atar
    Hammi Ibtissem
    Morazzo Mariano
    Naciri Yassine
    with the technical support of AFRY
    July 19, 2021
    Morocco's significant renewable energy resources offer an unprecedented opportunity to anchor the country’s economic and political choices in the energy transition, and to turn the transition into an essential lever for economic development. This is all the more relevant as the costs of renewable energies have dropped over the past 10 years2, and now offer strong potential, not only for creating green jobs but for ensuring a dynamic and resilient economic growth as well. In 2020, ne ...
  • Authors
    Chami Abdelilah
    Derj Atar
    Hammi Ibtissem
    Morazzo Mariano
    Naciri Yassine
    with the technical support of AFRY
    July 9, 2021
    Les importantes ressources en énergies renouvelables du Maroc offrent une opportunité sans précédent d’ancrer les choix économiques et politiques du pays dans la transition énergétique, et de faire de cette transition un levier essentiel du développement économique. Ceci est d’autant plus important que le coût des énergies renouvelables a baissé au cours des 10 dernières années2 et présente désormais un fort potentiel, non seulement de création d’emplois verts mais aussi de croissan ...