The hike in tariffs imposed by the United States against its major trading partners since early 2018 has been unprecedented in recent history. President Trump alluded to, among others, the goal of revitalizing jobs in the country’s manufacturing industry by protecting it from unfair trade practices of other countries, particularly China. However, according to a study by two Federal Reserve Bank staff – Aaron Flaaen and Justin Pierce – released last December 23, the effect so far has been just the opposite, i.e. a reduction in U.S. manufacturing employment!
Emerging market and developing economies: Engine of the global economic growth despite some vulnerabilities
After a long spell of slow growth post-crisis, the global economy’s recovery was mainly supported by the improvement of emerging markets and developing economies growth. However, this recovery is subject to wide-ranging uncertainties and is now in some danger. According to the IMF, the global economic growth is expected to fall to 3 % in 2019, the lowest level since 2008. This slowdown is estimated to be widespread, concerning both advanced economies as well as emerging markets and developing economies with an expected recovery starting from 2020.
Following the global financial crisis of 2007-08, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) went through a period of self-examination. The old joke that its acronym stood for “It’s Mostly Fiscal” bothered some of its leaders, who believed the organization needed to focus less on austerity and more thoroughly consider issues such as inequality, poverty reduction and gender equality when making loans and other key decisions. There was talk of a “new IMF” that had learned from its old mistakes.
Le rêve d’un monde en développement qui voit ses inégalités se réduire, la condition de vie de ses populations s’améliorer significativement, tout en profitant du bonheur procuré par une population jeune, reste à portée de main.
The growth slowdown became evident in late 2017. World GDP at market exchange rates slowed from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of between 4 and 5% in the second half of 2017 to between 1.5% to 2% in the first half of 2019. The slowdown came as a big surprise and led to continuous revisions downwards of growth forecasts as shown yet again by the IMF’s World Economic Outlook issued last week.
The Trump government has been imposing restrictions on access to technologies by Chinese telecommunications firms. Why and what are the consequences?
The Federal Communications Commission is about to ban carriers from using government funds to buy equipment from Huawei and ZTE. Other government agencies are expected to take similar measures.
Global GDP has slowed sharply, from near 4% in late 2017 to half that rate on an annualized basis in recent quarters. The downturn in fortunes over the last two years has come as a big surprise. The rapid expansion of 2016/2017 was broad based but died young. Prior to it we had suffered seven long years of slow growth in the wake of the global financial crisis
Despite some short-term benefits, trade deviation to the region shouldn’t be expected to last.
Has the U.S. trade war with China been good for Latin America?
An increase in Chinese demand for primary products from the region, as well as recent news of production transfers from China to Mexico, might give the impression that it has.
But any positive short-term effects of the confrontation should also take into account its negative medium- and long-term impacts on the region and on global growth. And the fact is that the overall trade and GDP destruction effects of trade wars tend to outweigh gains from shifts in trade activity.
Leonardo Parraga is an alumnus of the Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Program 2016.
The rise of globalization has given space to cooperation across borders in unprecedented ways. The interconnectedness between different actors allows for the creation of synergies and catalyzing progress in different areas, a feature that was previously unthinkable. When it comes to cooperation amongst young people, the increasing wave of meeting spaces facilitating the encounters between youth from Africa, Latin America, and Asia has created new bridges and channels for cooperation.
The global migration problem cannot be wished away; it has to be managed. Morocco provides an example of how responsibility for migration management can be handled by African states.