Events
Six Years After: Towards a New Social Contract
An Economic Debate Focused on the World Bank’s new Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor “Regional Prospects and the Economics of Post-Conflict Reconstruction”
By invitation, Rabat
The World Bank in partnership with the OCP Policy Center announces the launch of the latest edition of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Economic Monitor in Rabat, Morocco on April 17, 2017. The report presents the short-term, macroeconomic outlook and economic challenges facing countries in the region. The current outlook has shifted from “cautiously pessimistic” to “cautiously optimistic” as, despite ongoing conflict and instability, the report identifies positive trends such as economic reforms and the stabilization of oil prices that if sustained will lead to higher growth. The latest edition also has a special section on the economics of post-conflict reconstruction. Along with providing an assessment of the economic costs of the conflicts in Libya, Syria and Yemen, the report outlines principles for a reconstruction effort focused not only on replacing infrastructure but on strengthening inclusive institutions.
The conference will consist of two panels; which will be livestreamed in English, French and Arabic on the World Bank and OCP Policy Center websites, and will be broadcast on F24 Arabic on Friday, April 21st, at 4:10 pm Paris time. The panels will be held in Arabic, and translated into French and English.
Panel I: 6 years after the Arab Spring: The Economic Situation in MENA and the Prospects for Growth and Reform
The economies of the MENA region were all – directly or indirectly – impacted by a multitude of factors during the last 6 years: war, violence, political instability and low oil prices. How did all these factors impact economic activity in the region as a whole? How did Arab Spring oil-importing countries (Egypt + Tunisia) perform during this period? Is their economic situation better/worse than before? How did neighboring oil-importing countries react to the changes in the region and how did they perform (example of Morocco)? And how did lower oil prices impact the economic performance of oil exporting countries (GCC + Libya and Algeria)? In view of recent developments, many MENA countries have realized that reforming their economies has become inevitable. Reforms have started in a number of countries, such as Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, along with oil exporting countries (in particular, GCC countries). The discussion in the first panel will focus on the the current state of economies in the region and the prospects for economic reform. The debate will tackle the major challenges facing the region, such as high youth unemployment and very low female labor market participation, and the policies and reforms needed to address them.
Panel II– The Economics of Post-Conflict Reconstruction in the Region: Towards a New Social Contract
Violence and conflict have contributed to the slow growth in the MENA region over the past 6 years, as the civil wars in Libya, Syria and Yemen have had impacts far beyond their borders. Neighboring countries such as Lebanon and Jordan have coped with a massive influx of refugees, and countries such as Tunisia have had one of their most important sectors, tourism significantly impacted. At the same time, the prospects for peace in Libya, Syria and Yemen and potential recovery and reconstruction remain one of the keys to resuming growth over the next decade. The positive impact of reconstruction, however, depends on how the process is managed. The discussion in the second panel will focus on the principles of reconstruction, and how any potential effort should address the causes of conflict as well as rebuilding critical infrastructure. One of the common causes of all three of the regional civil wars is a breakdown of trust between citizens and their government. This panel will focus on ways to restore that trust and rebuild the social contract between citizens and their government, and the role of any potential reconstruction in that process.
Agenda
16:45 – 17:00 |
Registration |
17:00 – 17:10 |
WELCOMING REMARKS - Karim El Aynaoui, Managing Director, OCP Policy Center |
17:10 –17:30 |
PANEL I: 6 YEARS AFTER THE ARAB SPRING: THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN MENA AND THE PROSPECTS FOR GROWTH AND REFORM MODERATOR Line Rifai, Business Editor, France 24 SPEAKERS - Shanta Devarajan, Middle East and North Africa Chief Economist, World Bank |
17:30 –18:00 |
PANEL II: THE ECONOMICS OF POST-CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION IN THE REGION: TOWARDS A NEW SOCIAL CONTRACT MODERATOR Line Rifai, Business Editor, France 24 SPEAKERS - Shanta Devarajan, Middle East and North Africa Chief Economist, World Bank |
18:00 –18:20 |
Discussion |
18:20 –18:30 |
CONCLUDING REMARKS |