Publications /
Policy Brief

Back
Too high, too fast, too loud? Questioning the soaring prices of minerals and metals
Authors
October 18, 2017

The prices of metals -most notably industrial metals- have risen significantly since January 2016, in contrast with 2014 and 2015, which were difficult years. This trend is due to substantial improvements in market fundamentals, both for demand and supply. However, the importance of speculative movements underlying this sharp rise in prices cannot be minimized or omitted. In the short term, it poses the risk of a correction linked to profit taking and a return to greater rationality. In the longer term, it could disrupt investment decisions and eventually induce a level of supply well above that of demand. The likelihood of a market deficit due to the gradual depletion of mines can certainly be explained through basic geology, however, the economic transcription from resources to reserves may pose a challenge of greater complexity1. From this regard, it is clear that the (over-) statement of expected ores and/or metals shortages often serves speculative interests. Rising prices, growing exploratory investments, technological innovations enabling the development of recycling techniques and greater efficiency in the use of materials, as well as the adoption of substitution methods have, up until now, pushed back the limits of resource finiteness.

RELATED CONTENT

  • Authors
    September 15, 2023
    This paper was originally published on iai.it Europe’s natural gas system experienced unprecedented stress following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since the outbreak of the war, the European Union has strived to secure alternative supplies, fill its gas storage facilities and reduce consumption. Success on these fronts was enabled by fundamental market changes that the bloc unlocked during a long period of low gas prices over the past two decades, in addition to emergency and diplo ...
  • May 05, 2023
    This podcast examines current trends in energy production and consumption in the Atlantic region. It discusses the challenges facing the energy sector due to the outbreak of Covid-19 and ...
  • December 02, 2022
    Depuis février 2022, l’approvisionnement des matières premières en Europe constitue une des problématiques majeures auquel le continent est affronté. Si les matières premières agricoles s ...
  • October 25, 2022
    واجه الاتحاد الأوروبي خلال السنتين الماضيتين أزمة غير مسبقة في قطاع الطاقة بدأت منذ سنة 2021 واشتدت مع الأزمة الروسية الأوكرانية. فارتفعت أسعار الطاقة عمومًا والغاز على وجه الخصوص ممّا تسبّب في ضغطات مرتفعة على الفاعلين الاقتصاديين مستهلكين كانوا ام شركات. فحاول المفوضية والمجلس الأوروب...
  • September 09, 2022
    Key Challenges and Opportunities of African natural gas supplies to Europe. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the African natural gas has emerged as an alternative to Russian na ...
  • Authors
    August 17, 2022
    In May 2021, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) report Net Zero by 2050 stated that there is no need for new investments in oil and gas fields in their net zero pathway[1]. The message was clear: place your next investments in clean energy sources and energy efficiency. However, the IEA’s Africa Energy Outlook 2022 stated that Africa’s industrialisation relies in expanding the use of natural gas[2]. Even the IEA executive director Fatih Birol said, “if we make a list of the top ...
  • Authors
    Moubarack Lo
    Amaye SY
    August 1, 2022
    Avant la pandémie Covid-19, le continent abritait les économies à la croissance la plus rapide du monde et plusieurs pays africains montraient les premiers signes de transformation structurelle et de progrès vers l’émergence économique. Plus de deux ans après la pandémie et les ondes de choc qui en ont résulté, deux questions cruciales se posent : dans quelle mesure le choc sanitaire Covid-19, exacerbé par la crise ukrainienne, a-t-il constitué un tournant dans le processus général ...