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Mediterranean Strategy Group 18: Policy Planner’s Forum on Strategic Stability in the MENA : Deflating Tensions, Building Bridges

From

21
2:00 pm November 2018

To

22
12:45 pm November 2018

Rome, Italy

The Mediterranean Strategy Group (MSG), an event organized in a partnership between OCP Policy Center and the German Marshall Fund (GMF), is the leading transatlantic dialogue on Mediterranean affairs. The forum brings together around 40 experts and officials from the public and private sectors from both sides of the Atlantic and the Mediterranean will meet for two days of informal roundtable style discussion under the Chatham House rule.

The Policy Planners Forum’s purpose is to informally exchange perspectives on two critical dossiers affecting the outlook for strategic stability in the Middle East and the relationship between the United States, Europe and regional actors: the future of the Iran deal after the U.S. withdrawal, and the endgame in Syria. 
 

Agenda 

 

NOVEMBER 21, 2018 

SESSION 1: PEACE GAME (IN PARTNERSHIP WITH FOREIGN POLICY AND ISPI)
PEACEGAME IS DESIGNED TO ENABLE PARTICIPANTS TO WORK THROUGH SCENARIOS EXPLORING HOW THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MIGHT ADEQUATELY RESPOND TO HUMANITARIAN CRISIS, END OR CONTAIN CONFLICT AND DEVELOP A SUSTAINABLE POLITICAL FRAMEWORK TO ACHIEVE LASTING PEACE. THIS OF SCENARIO GAMIN IS USED BY GOVERNMENT AND MAJOR CORPORATIONS WORLDWIDE

NOVEMBER 22, 2018 

08:00 – 08:30

Registration of Participants  

08:30– 09:00

Welcoming Remarks 
- Ian Lesser, Vice President, The German Marshall Fund of the United States 
- Armando Barucco, Director, Department of Policy Planning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Italy 
- Nicolas Russo Perez, Coordinator, International Affairs Program, Compagnia di San Paolo
- Mohamed Loulichki, Senior Fellow, OCP Policy Center 

09:30– 10:30

Session 1 | JCPOA after the US Withdrawal: What Now? What Next? 

Moderator: Nathalie Tocci, Director, Institute of International Affairs

The US withdrawal from the JCPOA has altered the panorama of nuclear proliferation and geopolitical balance in the MENA. It has also put the US and Europe on opposing sides of a key regional security issue as the EU vies to hold on to the deal alongside Russia and China. How likely and desirable is a survival of the JCPOA in its current form without US participation? How will the disarray between transatlantic partners on this issue affect strategic stability? What is the outlook for engagement with Iran across a wider set of security issues? What can be done to reduce the risks of brinkmanship? 
 

10:30– 11:00

Coffee Break

11:00– 12:30

Session 2 | the End Game in Syria and the Outlook for Regional Stability 

Moderator: Maha Yahya, Director, Carnegie Middle East Center

While Washington remains ambiguous as to the scope and future of its deployment in Syria, the Assad regime continues to consolidate its position with the backing of Russia and Iran. As regime forces close in on Idlib as the last major stronghold of anti-Assad opposition forces, the war in Syria is set to enter a new phase. Pressing concerns such as access to humanitarian aid, stabilization and eventual reconstruction and return of refugees are high on the agenda, while the nature of a political settlement remains an open question. How do we assess the current situation? Where do key actors share similar goals? Under what conditions can they come together? What are the risks of a clash between regional and external actors, and how can these be reduced? How will the end game in Syria shape the broader outlook for stability in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Levant? 

12:30– 12:45

Closing Remarks

 

Speakers
Mohammed Loulichki
Senior Fellow
Mohammed Loulichki is a Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South and an Affiliate Professor at Mohammed VI Polytechnic University. He brings over 40 years of comprehensive experience in diplomacy, conflict resolution, and human rights. He has served in various roles including as a member and Deputy Head of the Moroccan delegation to the 3rd Conference on the Law of the Sea (1982-1990), Head of the Department of Legal Affairs and Treaties at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (1988-1991), and General Director for Multilateral Affairs in the same ministry (2003-2006).   He also acted as Morocco's Ambassador to Hungary, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Croatia (1995-1999), and was the Moroccan Government's Ambassador Coordinator with MINURSO (1999-2001). Furthermore, he served ...
Ian Lesser
Vice President; Executive Director, Transatlantic Center, The German Marshall Fund of the United States, Brussels
Staff Expert Ian Lesser Vice President, Foreign Policy; Executive Director, Transatlantic Center Brussels Expertise: Policy, NATO / Mediterranean & Middle Eastern Affairs / North-South Relations / Terrorism / Proliferation / International Security & Geopolitics / Energy Related Topics: Security and Defense, European Union, Wider Atlantic, Mediterranean , Mediterranean Strategy Group, Turkey, Grexit, NATO, NATO and the Mediterranean, Understanding America Ian Lesser is vice president for Foreign Policy at The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) and a member of GMF’s executive team, managing programs across the organization. He also serves as executive director of the Transatlantic Center, the Brussels office of GMF, and leads GMF’s work on the Mediterranean ...